Younger workers everywhere

[The-Shoveler]

Only about 5-8% or so can afford to be cool urban people.

A only a small percentage can fit, it’s not going to stop sprawl.

[all]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
It used to be that suburban dads would wash cars and do yard work on weekends. Now people don’t even to do that anymore. They just want to pay someone to wash their cars and do their gardening. That will cost them in the long run.
[/quote]

I would rather take my family to the beach, on a bike ride, on a hike, or to the park than wash my car. The kids wash my car once or twice during summer (i.e. spray with water while they are horsing around). Washing cars and gardening is such a waste of time if not done as meditative activity.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . I foresee more 3 bedroom condos being built.[/quote]Back from a “break” trimming wayward giant bushes and filling 3 (2 “borrowed”) 90 gal carts with yard waste … as a function of El Nino, lol. More next week after cans are emptied ….

FIH, there are many large (100 or more unit) condo complexes in the SGV which have lots of 3-4 bdrm units. They are on average about 30 years old and appear to be very well-managed. My youngest kid lives in one and its landscaping is to die for. However, they are no longer “cheap.” For a few years (2008 to 2012) some “distressed” units could be had in the $300-$400K range, but alas, they were all bought up by cash buyers (90% “Chinese”). A 3-bdrm unit is now worth $475-$575K, depending on condition. Of course, the SGV’s (older stock of) SFR listings now start at $575K with an average age of 50 years old. (There isn’t any housing much newer there than the late ’80’s except for in “Phillips Ranch,” a fairly recent county annexation into the City of Pomona.) Even though these cities are likely ~30 miles closer to job centers than the “Eastvale/dairy farm” area of Riv County, it is likely that most first-time buyers (millenials) can no longer qualify to buy into the SGV, unless they are happy with a 1-2 bdrm condo (I don’t think there are any “studios” out there).

I think shoveler has posted before here that companies were now moving into the *new* (redirected) I-15 corridor. In a few months, the widening/elevation project of the I-15 at the base of the Cajon Pass (connecting with this corridor as well as the I-215) will be completed. This will provide a much faster, seamless transition into/out of the high desert for intra/interstate travelers/truck traffic as well as SoCal residents. This project has been on the CalTrans “drawing board” for more than 30 years (since the opening of I-215) and I am really glad to see it finally take shape.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=all]
I would rather take my family to the beach, on a bike ride, on a hike, or to the park than wash my car. The kids wash my car once or twice during summer (i.e. spray with water while they are horsing around). Washing cars and gardening is such a waste of time if not done as meditative activity.[/quote]

I agree. If you can easily afford to pay someone, all the better

Just talking generally here…. Homeowners are already stretched thin. They have to DIY if they want to own a house. It’s the price to pay to build sweat equity.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=FlyerInHi] . . . I foresee more 3 bedroom condos being built.[/quote]Back from a “break” trimming wayward giant bushes and filling 3 (2 “borrowed”) 90 gal carts with yard waste … as a function of El Nino, lol. More next week after cans are emptied ….

FIH, there are many large (100 or more unit) condo complexes in the SGV which have lots of 3-4 bdrm units. They are on average about 30 years old and appear to be very well-managed. My youngest kid lives in one and its landscaping is to die for. However, they are no longer “cheap.” For a few years (2008 to 2012) some “distressed” units could be had in the $300-$400K range, but alas, they were all bought up by cash buyers (90% “Chinese”). A 3-bdrm unit is now worth $475-$575K, depending on condition. Of course, the SGV’s (older stock of) SFR listings now start at $575K with an average age of 50 years old. (There isn’t any housing much newer there than the late ’80’s except for in “Phillips Ranch,” a fairly recent county annexation into the City of Pomona.) Even though these cities are likely ~30 miles closer to job centers than the “Eastvale/dairy farm” area of Riv County, it is likely that most first-time buyers (millenials) can no longer qualify to buy into the SGV, unless they are happy with a 1-2 bdrm condo (I don’t think there are any “studios” out there).

I think shoveler has posted before here that companies were now moving into the *new* (redirected) I-15 corridor. In a few months, the widening/elevation project of the I-15 at the base of the Cajon Pass (connecting with this corridor as well as the I-215) will be completed. This will provide a much faster, seamless transition into/out of the high desert for intra/interstate travelers/truck traffic as well as SoCal residents. This project has been on the CalTrans “drawing board” for more than 30 years (since the opening of I-215) and I am really glad to see it finally take shape.[/quote]

Too much nimbyism in built out areas. So sprawl will go on to Victorville. Eventually the Palmdale to Victorville area will get developed. If you drive the area you will see realty signs in Chinese/Korean.

[spdrun]

What’s wrong with just hosing off your car once every few weeks? Gets the dust and salt off.

The better if you can take it to a self-serve car wash that recycles the water or drains it properly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Too much nimbyism in built out areas. So sprawl will go on to Victorville. Eventually the Palmdale to Victorville area will get developed. If you drive the area you will see realty signs in Chinese/Korean.[/quote]The SGV isn’t really “built out.” It has TONS of open space, hence the great QOL for its residents. And it’s not ever going to be “built out.”

That’s the difference between LA County and the inland empire (San Bern and Riv counties.) The leadership in the various LA County jurisdictions didn’t sell out to Big D. The inland empire counties and their cities did. Hence the huge difference in residential RE prices.

You pay for what you get in this life and LA County’s cities are simply “worth more” to live in due to its better location and excellent planning.

[flyer]

There are definitely young people everywhere, and we often wonder where they are all going to work and live–especially if they want to stay in San Diego.

Many articles have revealed that most younger people (especially those raised in CA) will have a very difficult time continuing to live at the level of life their parents provided if and when they leave the nest.

Many, including our kids, have done just fine making the transition (without spending thousands on rent) so there is hope, but we’ve seen an even greater number who have not. It will be interesting to see how all of this develops over time.

[FlyerInHi]

whatever, BG.

Remember people have to live somewhere. If they are no affordable places in LA, they will be forced to move to Riverside or San Bernardino.

You are part of the reason houses are expensive because you oppose any new dwellings. you keep on saying people can live in existing houses… How so if the houses are already occupied?

Yeah, I want to live in Brentwood and I don’t want anything new built once I’m in. Easy to say if you don’t care where people will live. Your QOL is great, if you have money and a job nearby… but everyone else has to commute from San Bernardino.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flyer]

Many articles have revealed that most younger people (especially those raised in CA) will have a very difficult time continuing to live at the level of life their parents provided if and when they leave the nest.

[/quote]

if the parents had to pay today’s prices, they’d be SOL also.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]whatever, BG.

Remember people have to live somewhere. If they are no affordable places in LA, they will be forced to move to Riverside or San Bernardino.

You are part of the reason houses are expensive because you oppose any new dwellings. you keep on saying people can live in existing houses… How so if the houses are already occupied?

Yeah, I want to live in Brentwood and I don’t want anything new built once I’m in. Easy to say if you don’t care where people will live. Your QOL is great, if you have money and a job nearby… but everyone else has to commute from San Bernardino.[/quote]The above issues are where you and I differ in opinion. You yourself have posted here numerous times that FTBs should buy an “imperfect” place and DIY (as much as possible) to create “sweat equity.” The truth is that there is plenty of unoccupied (or sellers willing to sell and move) existing housing to choose from in nearly ALL CA coastal counties. The reality is that the millenials don’t want them. If they decide to purchase, they want it as new as possible (preferably brand new construction). Nearly . Every . Single . City in the SGV (22 cities in all) has one or more fixer uppers available at any given time (incl condos). Or SS/fixer SFR listings which might be able to be had for a $300-$400K price … yes, even today!

For example, millenials are commuting from BF Egypt (that includes Stockton, folks) because they want to. They consciously CHOSE this lifestyle while turning down closer-in housing choices.

I saw a good-sized 1950’s cosmetic fixer situated on a generous lot in the Hayward Hills asking the high $300’s a couple of weeks ago. Distance to the SM Bridge was 5-7 minutes, including stoplights. I’m sure it’s gone now. I suspect a handy boomer or professional flipper/boomer picked it up in an all-cash sale … NOT a millenial who so desperately needs to live close to work for a reasonable price! From what I could tell, its only major defect was a utility line easement which touched the ground and was shared by an adjoining parcel.

Oakland abounds with fixer-uppers and there are some GREAT parts of town, people.

Oh, and your Brentwood fixer upper on a 1/2 AC lot was in the mid-high $300’s in the early-mid nineties. Where were you, brian? Were you able to buy real property back then, and if so, did you qualify for a ~$350K purchase? You had that window of opportunity to purchase your “dream” and let it pass (so did I) :=0

[FlyerInHi]

errr… BG, there is very little inventory right now.

Math wise, we need to build dwellings at a rate greater than household formation (to account for vacation homes). Otherwise there is a shortage. Pretty simple, really.

I didn’t say people need to DIY order to own homes per se. However, they do need to DIY if they buy at the max they qualify for, as most buyers do. That’s why they prefer move in ready.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]errr… BG, there is very little inventory right now.

Math wise, we need to build dwellings at a rate greater than household formation (to account for vacation homes). Otherwise there is a shortage. Pretty simple, really.

I didn’t say people need to DIY order to own homes per se. However, they do need to DIY if they buy at the max they qualify for, as most buyers do. That’s why they prefer move in ready.[/quote]No we don’t need to build homes at that rate. “Vacation homes” are typically NOT located in job centers. In CA, for example, most of them are located in resort towns (ex: S. Lake Tahoe & Mammoth Lakes), rural towns with a <15K population as well as "out in the boonies." Millenials don't want to buy in these locales due to not being able to make a good enough living to support a monthly PITI. Boomers buying "vacation homes" aren't "stealing any inventory" from millenials. Actually, when boomers finally decide to sell their primary residence in a CA coastal county or inland city with job centers and "retire" to their vacation home, that opens up another listing for millenials to make an offer on. Regardless of the amount of inventory currently available in any micro-market, some listings are taking longer to sell (60+ days). So some of them don't seem to have any takers, possibly because the asking price is too high and/or seller wouldn't accept a lower price so it is in effect a "test listing."

Honestly, I don't think a huge percentage of millenials (single digits?) are currently in the market to buy a home. Some are still at parents' homes trying to save up for security deposits and a better used car. The ones that are on their own are, for the most part, renters (even long-term renters) because of their inability to save a downpayment despite having a good salary for years. Millenials, as a group, aren't very good savers. They feel they need everything "right now" and many (most) of them are what I would consider "high maintenance" (my own kids included).

Millenials in "flyover country" are a bit of a different breed than those who grew up in CA. Many of them seem to have adopted the values of their parents and it doesn't hurt them that decent housing costs much less there than here. Therefore, buying a house there in one's 20's is actually very doable in many areas.

The last thing our severely overcrowded CA counties need is more housing with no buyers ready, able and willing to buy them.

Builders are not doing anyone any favors by offering a first-time buyer product (or product a little "moved-up" from that price point) in a locale where jobs which pay a living wage are 50+ miles away. All they are doing is creating more sprawl.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]
The last thing our severely overcrowded CA counties need is more housing with no buyers ready, able and willing to buy them.

Builders are not doing anyone any favors by offering a first-time buyer product (or product a little “moved-up” from that price point) in a locale where jobs which pay a living wage are 50+ miles away. All they are doing is creating more sprawl.[/quote]

We are not overcrowded.

Able and willing to buy = demand. Do you think that builders are stupid and would build without demand?

Sprawl happens because development that a city does not want, another city a little further away would gladly have.

Your efforts to stop building will just cause more land to be paved over. The remedy to sprawl is to bulldoze old buildings to put up new taller buildings.

[moneymaker]

After the big one hits California I guarantee many people will leave CA. I’m reminicing about Monday’s traffic, it was great with most schools closed and government workers off. If only traffic could be like that every day. That kind of traffic and warmer waters off our coast from global warming and then San Diego would indeed be heaven.

[Author]

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