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Viewing 15 posts - 106 through 120 (of 156 total)
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  • February 22, 2011 at 4:34 AM #670574
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Inflation seem to be getting more popular press these days.

    Experts seem to like to use the “core” inflation metric that excludes volatile food and energy. Problem is that those 2 are seeing big spikes.

    Interesting side effect of high food commodity prices….unrest in emerging markets, particularly in the Mideast. Unrest Driving up oil prices, further driving up food prices as most food needs to go from distant farm to mouth.

    February 22, 2011 at 4:48 AM #669427
    Arraya
    Participant

    Oil is a master commodity – it’s moves always push all other commodities. otoh -Speculators see momentum develop and begin to pile into the sector chasing that momentum. This rapidly drives prices higher by creating artificial demand. Which is vastly different from inflation defined by the dilution of money – we also have tightness in the oil market and big currency moves – so there are a lot of moving parts.

    FWIW- When oil pushed past 100 in 2008 food riots flared up in the third world.

    February 22, 2011 at 4:48 AM #669489
    Arraya
    Participant

    Oil is a master commodity – it’s moves always push all other commodities. otoh -Speculators see momentum develop and begin to pile into the sector chasing that momentum. This rapidly drives prices higher by creating artificial demand. Which is vastly different from inflation defined by the dilution of money – we also have tightness in the oil market and big currency moves – so there are a lot of moving parts.

    FWIW- When oil pushed past 100 in 2008 food riots flared up in the third world.

    February 22, 2011 at 4:48 AM #670096
    Arraya
    Participant

    Oil is a master commodity – it’s moves always push all other commodities. otoh -Speculators see momentum develop and begin to pile into the sector chasing that momentum. This rapidly drives prices higher by creating artificial demand. Which is vastly different from inflation defined by the dilution of money – we also have tightness in the oil market and big currency moves – so there are a lot of moving parts.

    FWIW- When oil pushed past 100 in 2008 food riots flared up in the third world.

    February 22, 2011 at 4:48 AM #670235
    Arraya
    Participant

    Oil is a master commodity – it’s moves always push all other commodities. otoh -Speculators see momentum develop and begin to pile into the sector chasing that momentum. This rapidly drives prices higher by creating artificial demand. Which is vastly different from inflation defined by the dilution of money – we also have tightness in the oil market and big currency moves – so there are a lot of moving parts.

    FWIW- When oil pushed past 100 in 2008 food riots flared up in the third world.

    February 22, 2011 at 4:48 AM #670579
    Arraya
    Participant

    Oil is a master commodity – it’s moves always push all other commodities. otoh -Speculators see momentum develop and begin to pile into the sector chasing that momentum. This rapidly drives prices higher by creating artificial demand. Which is vastly different from inflation defined by the dilution of money – we also have tightness in the oil market and big currency moves – so there are a lot of moving parts.

    FWIW- When oil pushed past 100 in 2008 food riots flared up in the third world.

    July 17, 2011 at 3:40 AM #710173
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    I’m still holding to my belief of long term inflation. Bunch of things going on that continue to be worrisome. All will impact US housing market to some degree. Sovereign debt issues in Europe still seem to be spreading. Also China property market potential big fall may be big problem. Here’s interesting wash post article on big problems in China. You will be kidding yourself if you believe it will not.impact you in someway.
    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=601&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fbusiness%2f2011%2f07%2f14%2fgIQAYWkhII_mobile.mobile&cid=583&spf=1

    July 17, 2011 at 3:40 AM #710271
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    I’m still holding to my belief of long term inflation. Bunch of things going on that continue to be worrisome. All will impact US housing market to some degree. Sovereign debt issues in Europe still seem to be spreading. Also China property market potential big fall may be big problem. Here’s interesting wash post article on big problems in China. You will be kidding yourself if you believe it will not.impact you in someway.
    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=601&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fbusiness%2f2011%2f07%2f14%2fgIQAYWkhII_mobile.mobile&cid=583&spf=1

    July 17, 2011 at 3:40 AM #710870
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    I’m still holding to my belief of long term inflation. Bunch of things going on that continue to be worrisome. All will impact US housing market to some degree. Sovereign debt issues in Europe still seem to be spreading. Also China property market potential big fall may be big problem. Here’s interesting wash post article on big problems in China. You will be kidding yourself if you believe it will not.impact you in someway.
    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=601&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fbusiness%2f2011%2f07%2f14%2fgIQAYWkhII_mobile.mobile&cid=583&spf=1

    July 17, 2011 at 3:40 AM #711024
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    I’m still holding to my belief of long term inflation. Bunch of things going on that continue to be worrisome. All will impact US housing market to some degree. Sovereign debt issues in Europe still seem to be spreading. Also China property market potential big fall may be big problem. Here’s interesting wash post article on big problems in China. You will be kidding yourself if you believe it will not.impact you in someway.
    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=601&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fbusiness%2f2011%2f07%2f14%2fgIQAYWkhII_mobile.mobile&cid=583&spf=1

    July 17, 2011 at 3:40 AM #711382
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    I’m still holding to my belief of long term inflation. Bunch of things going on that continue to be worrisome. All will impact US housing market to some degree. Sovereign debt issues in Europe still seem to be spreading. Also China property market potential big fall may be big problem. Here’s interesting wash post article on big problems in China. You will be kidding yourself if you believe it will not.impact you in someway.
    http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp?rssid=601&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fbusiness%2f2011%2f07%2f14%2fgIQAYWkhII_mobile.mobile&cid=583&spf=1

    July 24, 2011 at 1:09 PM #712334
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Well folks, we’re going to the show the next couple days.

    I put a successful debt deal at 40% odds now, and if it happens it will not have enough cuts to placate the rating agencies.

    A credit ratings cut will boost interest rates across the board and result in higher costs for everyone. Essentially a stealth tax.

    I’m gonna be following the asian markets closely later this afternoon.

    My prediction is that gold is gonna jump big time.

    10 year treasuries yield will jump and mortgage rate will step up, as the 2 are highly correlated.

    This may be the event that precipiates big problems.

    July 24, 2011 at 1:09 PM #712430
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Well folks, we’re going to the show the next couple days.

    I put a successful debt deal at 40% odds now, and if it happens it will not have enough cuts to placate the rating agencies.

    A credit ratings cut will boost interest rates across the board and result in higher costs for everyone. Essentially a stealth tax.

    I’m gonna be following the asian markets closely later this afternoon.

    My prediction is that gold is gonna jump big time.

    10 year treasuries yield will jump and mortgage rate will step up, as the 2 are highly correlated.

    This may be the event that precipiates big problems.

    July 24, 2011 at 1:09 PM #713028
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Well folks, we’re going to the show the next couple days.

    I put a successful debt deal at 40% odds now, and if it happens it will not have enough cuts to placate the rating agencies.

    A credit ratings cut will boost interest rates across the board and result in higher costs for everyone. Essentially a stealth tax.

    I’m gonna be following the asian markets closely later this afternoon.

    My prediction is that gold is gonna jump big time.

    10 year treasuries yield will jump and mortgage rate will step up, as the 2 are highly correlated.

    This may be the event that precipiates big problems.

    July 24, 2011 at 1:09 PM #713180
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Well folks, we’re going to the show the next couple days.

    I put a successful debt deal at 40% odds now, and if it happens it will not have enough cuts to placate the rating agencies.

    A credit ratings cut will boost interest rates across the board and result in higher costs for everyone. Essentially a stealth tax.

    I’m gonna be following the asian markets closely later this afternoon.

    My prediction is that gold is gonna jump big time.

    10 year treasuries yield will jump and mortgage rate will step up, as the 2 are highly correlated.

    This may be the event that precipiates big problems.

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