You’d have to be an idiot to buy a house

[scaredyclassic]

maybe i should say I’d have to be an idiot to buy, not you’d have to be an idiot to buy. I just fear getting locked in and being unable to go. but, that’s unreasonable, since it’s very likely I’ll be right here for another 10-15 years. it’s just the thought of being stuck makes me feel scared. but I’ll probably just bite the bullet and buy something int he next 18 months. hopefully closer to 18 months than sooner.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Agree with TG completely, fading peoples views like the post originator, is how I have acquired the wealth that I have. It is also why I am in this blog, to get the consensus view and do the opposite in most cases. Someone like that will always buy the high and sell the low sadly. It is how most people are wired unfortunately. It is also why most people are not wealthy, they are more comfortable with the herd. This sounds harsh, and it is not meant to be, it is simply the truth. I learned a long time ago to break from the herd and it has served me well.

I do not believe we are at the exact low but we are certainly in a zone where values make alot more sense, and there are bargains to be had.

If you are looking to day trade the house you buy for a gain, don’t ever buy one as long as you live. Having such a short time horizon on value with an illiquid asset is never going to lead to a good decision.

Good post TG!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Agree with TG completely, fading peoples views like the post originator, is how I have acquired the wealth that I have. It is also why I am in this blog, to get the consensus view and do the opposite in most cases. Someone like that will always buy the high and sell the low sadly. It is how most people are wired unfortunately. It is also why most people are not wealthy, they are more comfortable with the herd. This sounds harsh, and it is not meant to be, it is simply the truth. I learned a long time ago to break from the herd and it has served me well.

I do not believe we are at the exact low but we are certainly in a zone where values make alot more sense, and there are bargains to be had.

If you are looking to day trade the house you buy for a gain, don’t ever buy one as long as you live. Having such a short time horizon on value with an illiquid asset is never going to lead to a good decision.

Good post TG!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Agree with TG completely, fading peoples views like the post originator, is how I have acquired the wealth that I have. It is also why I am in this blog, to get the consensus view and do the opposite in most cases. Someone like that will always buy the high and sell the low sadly. It is how most people are wired unfortunately. It is also why most people are not wealthy, they are more comfortable with the herd. This sounds harsh, and it is not meant to be, it is simply the truth. I learned a long time ago to break from the herd and it has served me well.

I do not believe we are at the exact low but we are certainly in a zone where values make alot more sense, and there are bargains to be had.

If you are looking to day trade the house you buy for a gain, don’t ever buy one as long as you live. Having such a short time horizon on value with an illiquid asset is never going to lead to a good decision.

Good post TG!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Agree with TG completely, fading peoples views like the post originator, is how I have acquired the wealth that I have. It is also why I am in this blog, to get the consensus view and do the opposite in most cases. Someone like that will always buy the high and sell the low sadly. It is how most people are wired unfortunately. It is also why most people are not wealthy, they are more comfortable with the herd. This sounds harsh, and it is not meant to be, it is simply the truth. I learned a long time ago to break from the herd and it has served me well.

I do not believe we are at the exact low but we are certainly in a zone where values make alot more sense, and there are bargains to be had.

If you are looking to day trade the house you buy for a gain, don’t ever buy one as long as you live. Having such a short time horizon on value with an illiquid asset is never going to lead to a good decision.

Good post TG!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Agree with TG completely, fading peoples views like the post originator, is how I have acquired the wealth that I have. It is also why I am in this blog, to get the consensus view and do the opposite in most cases. Someone like that will always buy the high and sell the low sadly. It is how most people are wired unfortunately. It is also why most people are not wealthy, they are more comfortable with the herd. This sounds harsh, and it is not meant to be, it is simply the truth. I learned a long time ago to break from the herd and it has served me well.

I do not believe we are at the exact low but we are certainly in a zone where values make alot more sense, and there are bargains to be had.

If you are looking to day trade the house you buy for a gain, don’t ever buy one as long as you live. Having such a short time horizon on value with an illiquid asset is never going to lead to a good decision.

Good post TG!

[temeculaguy]

thanks chris

scardey, don’t do it on our account, take a look at your own situation, break down your numbers. All I’m saying is that you can’t use global economics and groupthink to decide what works for you. You may not make enough money, you may have a job that has a strong possibility of interstate transfers, you may have too high of debt or may be contemplating marriage, children, who know, I don’t a thing about you. What I do know is that deciding your personal mathematical scenario based on newspapers is stupid. Stressing is also a silly hobby. I like to use average people that I know as a baramoeter, let me share an “average” person’s scenario, both in 2005 and today. She is a teacher who has enough seniority to not have to worry about layoffs. She rents a 1500 sq ft townhouse within walking distance to her work. She likes it there, it has a 2 car garage and a yard. She has paid $1500 in rent for a few years, she makes about 75k a year. When the condos she rents were going for close to 350k to 400k, she could not afford them, they were more than 5x her income. But everyone told her to buy or be priced out forever, she could have gone toxic loan and squeezed in but she didn’t.

Right now they sell for about 130-150k, some a little more some a little less. Her association and taxes will be equal to her tax deduction so with her 25k downpayment her mortgage will be $596 a month P&I, I just don’t see how you call that person a moron or an idiot. That’s a freaking car payment. When that person came to asking for advice I didn’t bother to tell them that unemployment is at 10%, we are going to be eating rocks, buy guns and canned foods. I told her that when you can buy something that suits your needs for such a small fraction of your income and less than half of what you are renting it for, do it. She wont have to wait ten years to realize it was a good call, she will realize the savings next month. I also told her that over the next few years to take the savings and buy some stock (and a gun and canned food). Most San Diegans can’t see this yet, but they will, less than half off is coming to a town near you.

[temeculaguy]

thanks chris

scardey, don’t do it on our account, take a look at your own situation, break down your numbers. All I’m saying is that you can’t use global economics and groupthink to decide what works for you. You may not make enough money, you may have a job that has a strong possibility of interstate transfers, you may have too high of debt or may be contemplating marriage, children, who know, I don’t a thing about you. What I do know is that deciding your personal mathematical scenario based on newspapers is stupid. Stressing is also a silly hobby. I like to use average people that I know as a baramoeter, let me share an “average” person’s scenario, both in 2005 and today. She is a teacher who has enough seniority to not have to worry about layoffs. She rents a 1500 sq ft townhouse within walking distance to her work. She likes it there, it has a 2 car garage and a yard. She has paid $1500 in rent for a few years, she makes about 75k a year. When the condos she rents were going for close to 350k to 400k, she could not afford them, they were more than 5x her income. But everyone told her to buy or be priced out forever, she could have gone toxic loan and squeezed in but she didn’t.

Right now they sell for about 130-150k, some a little more some a little less. Her association and taxes will be equal to her tax deduction so with her 25k downpayment her mortgage will be $596 a month P&I, I just don’t see how you call that person a moron or an idiot. That’s a freaking car payment. When that person came to asking for advice I didn’t bother to tell them that unemployment is at 10%, we are going to be eating rocks, buy guns and canned foods. I told her that when you can buy something that suits your needs for such a small fraction of your income and less than half of what you are renting it for, do it. She wont have to wait ten years to realize it was a good call, she will realize the savings next month. I also told her that over the next few years to take the savings and buy some stock (and a gun and canned food). Most San Diegans can’t see this yet, but they will, less than half off is coming to a town near you.

[temeculaguy]

thanks chris

scardey, don’t do it on our account, take a look at your own situation, break down your numbers. All I’m saying is that you can’t use global economics and groupthink to decide what works for you. You may not make enough money, you may have a job that has a strong possibility of interstate transfers, you may have too high of debt or may be contemplating marriage, children, who know, I don’t a thing about you. What I do know is that deciding your personal mathematical scenario based on newspapers is stupid. Stressing is also a silly hobby. I like to use average people that I know as a baramoeter, let me share an “average” person’s scenario, both in 2005 and today. She is a teacher who has enough seniority to not have to worry about layoffs. She rents a 1500 sq ft townhouse within walking distance to her work. She likes it there, it has a 2 car garage and a yard. She has paid $1500 in rent for a few years, she makes about 75k a year. When the condos she rents were going for close to 350k to 400k, she could not afford them, they were more than 5x her income. But everyone told her to buy or be priced out forever, she could have gone toxic loan and squeezed in but she didn’t.

Right now they sell for about 130-150k, some a little more some a little less. Her association and taxes will be equal to her tax deduction so with her 25k downpayment her mortgage will be $596 a month P&I, I just don’t see how you call that person a moron or an idiot. That’s a freaking car payment. When that person came to asking for advice I didn’t bother to tell them that unemployment is at 10%, we are going to be eating rocks, buy guns and canned foods. I told her that when you can buy something that suits your needs for such a small fraction of your income and less than half of what you are renting it for, do it. She wont have to wait ten years to realize it was a good call, she will realize the savings next month. I also told her that over the next few years to take the savings and buy some stock (and a gun and canned food). Most San Diegans can’t see this yet, but they will, less than half off is coming to a town near you.

[temeculaguy]

thanks chris

scardey, don’t do it on our account, take a look at your own situation, break down your numbers. All I’m saying is that you can’t use global economics and groupthink to decide what works for you. You may not make enough money, you may have a job that has a strong possibility of interstate transfers, you may have too high of debt or may be contemplating marriage, children, who know, I don’t a thing about you. What I do know is that deciding your personal mathematical scenario based on newspapers is stupid. Stressing is also a silly hobby. I like to use average people that I know as a baramoeter, let me share an “average” person’s scenario, both in 2005 and today. She is a teacher who has enough seniority to not have to worry about layoffs. She rents a 1500 sq ft townhouse within walking distance to her work. She likes it there, it has a 2 car garage and a yard. She has paid $1500 in rent for a few years, she makes about 75k a year. When the condos she rents were going for close to 350k to 400k, she could not afford them, they were more than 5x her income. But everyone told her to buy or be priced out forever, she could have gone toxic loan and squeezed in but she didn’t.

Right now they sell for about 130-150k, some a little more some a little less. Her association and taxes will be equal to her tax deduction so with her 25k downpayment her mortgage will be $596 a month P&I, I just don’t see how you call that person a moron or an idiot. That’s a freaking car payment. When that person came to asking for advice I didn’t bother to tell them that unemployment is at 10%, we are going to be eating rocks, buy guns and canned foods. I told her that when you can buy something that suits your needs for such a small fraction of your income and less than half of what you are renting it for, do it. She wont have to wait ten years to realize it was a good call, she will realize the savings next month. I also told her that over the next few years to take the savings and buy some stock (and a gun and canned food). Most San Diegans can’t see this yet, but they will, less than half off is coming to a town near you.

[temeculaguy]

thanks chris

scardey, don’t do it on our account, take a look at your own situation, break down your numbers. All I’m saying is that you can’t use global economics and groupthink to decide what works for you. You may not make enough money, you may have a job that has a strong possibility of interstate transfers, you may have too high of debt or may be contemplating marriage, children, who know, I don’t a thing about you. What I do know is that deciding your personal mathematical scenario based on newspapers is stupid. Stressing is also a silly hobby. I like to use average people that I know as a baramoeter, let me share an “average” person’s scenario, both in 2005 and today. She is a teacher who has enough seniority to not have to worry about layoffs. She rents a 1500 sq ft townhouse within walking distance to her work. She likes it there, it has a 2 car garage and a yard. She has paid $1500 in rent for a few years, she makes about 75k a year. When the condos she rents were going for close to 350k to 400k, she could not afford them, they were more than 5x her income. But everyone told her to buy or be priced out forever, she could have gone toxic loan and squeezed in but she didn’t.

Right now they sell for about 130-150k, some a little more some a little less. Her association and taxes will be equal to her tax deduction so with her 25k downpayment her mortgage will be $596 a month P&I, I just don’t see how you call that person a moron or an idiot. That’s a freaking car payment. When that person came to asking for advice I didn’t bother to tell them that unemployment is at 10%, we are going to be eating rocks, buy guns and canned foods. I told her that when you can buy something that suits your needs for such a small fraction of your income and less than half of what you are renting it for, do it. She wont have to wait ten years to realize it was a good call, she will realize the savings next month. I also told her that over the next few years to take the savings and buy some stock (and a gun and canned food). Most San Diegans can’t see this yet, but they will, less than half off is coming to a town near you.

[BKlawyer]

I bought my house in a gated community in 2001 in La Jolla Colony at $220/sq.ft. 20+ yr. old condos in the area are now priced at $450+k/sq.ft. The median income for a single person in San Diego is $47k and crawls up from there based on family size. There is an amazing disconnect between what people want, can afford, and 2006 pricing v. what they can borrow. If you are looking to buy go back to 2000 and look at the price per sq./ft. If you pay more than that you are buying the bubble.

[BKlawyer]

I bought my house in a gated community in 2001 in La Jolla Colony at $220/sq.ft. 20+ yr. old condos in the area are now priced at $450+k/sq.ft. The median income for a single person in San Diego is $47k and crawls up from there based on family size. There is an amazing disconnect between what people want, can afford, and 2006 pricing v. what they can borrow. If you are looking to buy go back to 2000 and look at the price per sq./ft. If you pay more than that you are buying the bubble.

[BKlawyer]

I bought my house in a gated community in 2001 in La Jolla Colony at $220/sq.ft. 20+ yr. old condos in the area are now priced at $450+k/sq.ft. The median income for a single person in San Diego is $47k and crawls up from there based on family size. There is an amazing disconnect between what people want, can afford, and 2006 pricing v. what they can borrow. If you are looking to buy go back to 2000 and look at the price per sq./ft. If you pay more than that you are buying the bubble.

[BKlawyer]

I bought my house in a gated community in 2001 in La Jolla Colony at $220/sq.ft. 20+ yr. old condos in the area are now priced at $450+k/sq.ft. The median income for a single person in San Diego is $47k and crawls up from there based on family size. There is an amazing disconnect between what people want, can afford, and 2006 pricing v. what they can borrow. If you are looking to buy go back to 2000 and look at the price per sq./ft. If you pay more than that you are buying the bubble.

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