You’d have to be an idiot to buy a house

[Arraya]

[quote=SD Realtor]Arraya I am a realtor and a homeowner and I don’t think it is hard to see at all. If you feel Mira Mesa and other like areas that have already had a substantial depreciation hit will add another 10-20% then I do have a disagreement. I think those areas and others like them will depreciate but at a slower rate then your prediction. As for 20% in some of the higher end areas? Yeah I think I can see that.

Although I would say that according to some of the thoughts that you have posted that are somewhat more apocalyptic, housing would be the least of our problems wouldn’t you think?

I wanted to add that it really will be based on unemployment and the willingness by the world to continue to extend us credit. [/quote]

lol. I was making some broad generalizations in regards to housing bulls and price declines. My apologies. Though, I think even the hardest hit areas will see more declines driven by rents falling. Extreme example: Detroit homes have fallen almost 90% since peak and they are still falling. They started falling in 03. And no I am not making a comparison of Detroit to SD but it is still a good example of what employment can do to an area.

Yes, I agree the wild card is our foreign creditors and there willingness to lend to us. Personally I think the probability is very high that the world will reject to dollar thus massively devaluing it in the near future. China just said they are watching the “progress” of our economy and “nervous” about the amount of money they have lent us. This is a very big monkey wrench possibly with a military ramifications.

And Yes, I think housing is the least of our worries right now, though I like to follow housing stats for other purposes, plus I’m a data junkie. I was just trying advise scardycat that time is on his side and to wait and see w/o getting to apocalyptic;)

[temeculaguy]

You can lump me in with the cheerleaders, I like cheerleaders, especially the NBA and NFL ones. But that’s not what I do here even if it may seem so. The OP referenced my hood, one that I am arrogant enough to think I know and understand. Not the nation or the state or San Diego, but my neck of the woods, that I learned enough about in my 20 years here and my 4 years as an amatuer real estate research junkie. The anectdotal evidence of knowing people who aren’t paying needs to be put in perspective, that’s all I did. The eye of the storm came through here already, we won’t see recovery but we are at prices pushing against a fundamental floor. The bulk of the risk is gone, most houses are selling for less than the loss taken by the previous owner, therefore it is impossible to lose the same amount because houses will not go below zero. When $200 a square goes for $80 a square, the former owner (bank, taxpayer, et. al.) took a $120 a square hit, you can’t lose that much, the most you can lose is $80 but it is unlikely you will. Unlike stocks, houses rarely go to 0. At $200 a square all economic indicators were great, at $80 they are horrible but I still believe it is at $80 when you look past the news and should have ignored it at $200.

My anectdotal perspective. On my street of ten houses, everyone paid about 600k, all of them have been in distress for the last year. Myself and another guy recently bought repos for less than half, two more are in escrow for similar prices, another is about list for a similar price. One person paid cash I believe, possibly a second one, and one more is falling behind and about to be foreclosed on or sell short, they are trying a loan mod right now. Within a few months we should have 6 post implosion buyers and two outright owners, so there are two left to fall but I don’t them yet and don’t know their situation, but neither have a nod on file. This second wave of buyers have mortgages between 1k and 2k. So there are two more left to fall, to be reset with buyers in the new world of 20% down fixed mortgages at prices on par with rent, people that had to prove they qualified. So this does not keep me awake at night, there are fewer brown lawns (actually almost none because of the weather) but every week or two another one in the neighborhood gets bought and I see a sod truck drop off a a new lawn. With each new lawn I feel better. With more than half of the “cleansing” behind us, I have no fear about my hood, they aren’t all going to leave tomorrow because they just got here. a year or two ago, my new neighborhood was featured on local and national news because half the lawns were brown, many of those shows were linked on posts here, which is exactly why I started to look at it. But that’s just my view, which is an impressive view of the whole valley that I didn’t have to pay extra for, courtesy of the tsuinami.

[temeculaguy]

You can lump me in with the cheerleaders, I like cheerleaders, especially the NBA and NFL ones. But that’s not what I do here even if it may seem so. The OP referenced my hood, one that I am arrogant enough to think I know and understand. Not the nation or the state or San Diego, but my neck of the woods, that I learned enough about in my 20 years here and my 4 years as an amatuer real estate research junkie. The anectdotal evidence of knowing people who aren’t paying needs to be put in perspective, that’s all I did. The eye of the storm came through here already, we won’t see recovery but we are at prices pushing against a fundamental floor. The bulk of the risk is gone, most houses are selling for less than the loss taken by the previous owner, therefore it is impossible to lose the same amount because houses will not go below zero. When $200 a square goes for $80 a square, the former owner (bank, taxpayer, et. al.) took a $120 a square hit, you can’t lose that much, the most you can lose is $80 but it is unlikely you will. Unlike stocks, houses rarely go to 0. At $200 a square all economic indicators were great, at $80 they are horrible but I still believe it is at $80 when you look past the news and should have ignored it at $200.

My anectdotal perspective. On my street of ten houses, everyone paid about 600k, all of them have been in distress for the last year. Myself and another guy recently bought repos for less than half, two more are in escrow for similar prices, another is about list for a similar price. One person paid cash I believe, possibly a second one, and one more is falling behind and about to be foreclosed on or sell short, they are trying a loan mod right now. Within a few months we should have 6 post implosion buyers and two outright owners, so there are two left to fall but I don’t them yet and don’t know their situation, but neither have a nod on file. This second wave of buyers have mortgages between 1k and 2k. So there are two more left to fall, to be reset with buyers in the new world of 20% down fixed mortgages at prices on par with rent, people that had to prove they qualified. So this does not keep me awake at night, there are fewer brown lawns (actually almost none because of the weather) but every week or two another one in the neighborhood gets bought and I see a sod truck drop off a a new lawn. With each new lawn I feel better. With more than half of the “cleansing” behind us, I have no fear about my hood, they aren’t all going to leave tomorrow because they just got here. a year or two ago, my new neighborhood was featured on local and national news because half the lawns were brown, many of those shows were linked on posts here, which is exactly why I started to look at it. But that’s just my view, which is an impressive view of the whole valley that I didn’t have to pay extra for, courtesy of the tsuinami.

[temeculaguy]

You can lump me in with the cheerleaders, I like cheerleaders, especially the NBA and NFL ones. But that’s not what I do here even if it may seem so. The OP referenced my hood, one that I am arrogant enough to think I know and understand. Not the nation or the state or San Diego, but my neck of the woods, that I learned enough about in my 20 years here and my 4 years as an amatuer real estate research junkie. The anectdotal evidence of knowing people who aren’t paying needs to be put in perspective, that’s all I did. The eye of the storm came through here already, we won’t see recovery but we are at prices pushing against a fundamental floor. The bulk of the risk is gone, most houses are selling for less than the loss taken by the previous owner, therefore it is impossible to lose the same amount because houses will not go below zero. When $200 a square goes for $80 a square, the former owner (bank, taxpayer, et. al.) took a $120 a square hit, you can’t lose that much, the most you can lose is $80 but it is unlikely you will. Unlike stocks, houses rarely go to 0. At $200 a square all economic indicators were great, at $80 they are horrible but I still believe it is at $80 when you look past the news and should have ignored it at $200.

My anectdotal perspective. On my street of ten houses, everyone paid about 600k, all of them have been in distress for the last year. Myself and another guy recently bought repos for less than half, two more are in escrow for similar prices, another is about list for a similar price. One person paid cash I believe, possibly a second one, and one more is falling behind and about to be foreclosed on or sell short, they are trying a loan mod right now. Within a few months we should have 6 post implosion buyers and two outright owners, so there are two left to fall but I don’t them yet and don’t know their situation, but neither have a nod on file. This second wave of buyers have mortgages between 1k and 2k. So there are two more left to fall, to be reset with buyers in the new world of 20% down fixed mortgages at prices on par with rent, people that had to prove they qualified. So this does not keep me awake at night, there are fewer brown lawns (actually almost none because of the weather) but every week or two another one in the neighborhood gets bought and I see a sod truck drop off a a new lawn. With each new lawn I feel better. With more than half of the “cleansing” behind us, I have no fear about my hood, they aren’t all going to leave tomorrow because they just got here. a year or two ago, my new neighborhood was featured on local and national news because half the lawns were brown, many of those shows were linked on posts here, which is exactly why I started to look at it. But that’s just my view, which is an impressive view of the whole valley that I didn’t have to pay extra for, courtesy of the tsuinami.

[temeculaguy]

You can lump me in with the cheerleaders, I like cheerleaders, especially the NBA and NFL ones. But that’s not what I do here even if it may seem so. The OP referenced my hood, one that I am arrogant enough to think I know and understand. Not the nation or the state or San Diego, but my neck of the woods, that I learned enough about in my 20 years here and my 4 years as an amatuer real estate research junkie. The anectdotal evidence of knowing people who aren’t paying needs to be put in perspective, that’s all I did. The eye of the storm came through here already, we won’t see recovery but we are at prices pushing against a fundamental floor. The bulk of the risk is gone, most houses are selling for less than the loss taken by the previous owner, therefore it is impossible to lose the same amount because houses will not go below zero. When $200 a square goes for $80 a square, the former owner (bank, taxpayer, et. al.) took a $120 a square hit, you can’t lose that much, the most you can lose is $80 but it is unlikely you will. Unlike stocks, houses rarely go to 0. At $200 a square all economic indicators were great, at $80 they are horrible but I still believe it is at $80 when you look past the news and should have ignored it at $200.

My anectdotal perspective. On my street of ten houses, everyone paid about 600k, all of them have been in distress for the last year. Myself and another guy recently bought repos for less than half, two more are in escrow for similar prices, another is about list for a similar price. One person paid cash I believe, possibly a second one, and one more is falling behind and about to be foreclosed on or sell short, they are trying a loan mod right now. Within a few months we should have 6 post implosion buyers and two outright owners, so there are two left to fall but I don’t them yet and don’t know their situation, but neither have a nod on file. This second wave of buyers have mortgages between 1k and 2k. So there are two more left to fall, to be reset with buyers in the new world of 20% down fixed mortgages at prices on par with rent, people that had to prove they qualified. So this does not keep me awake at night, there are fewer brown lawns (actually almost none because of the weather) but every week or two another one in the neighborhood gets bought and I see a sod truck drop off a a new lawn. With each new lawn I feel better. With more than half of the “cleansing” behind us, I have no fear about my hood, they aren’t all going to leave tomorrow because they just got here. a year or two ago, my new neighborhood was featured on local and national news because half the lawns were brown, many of those shows were linked on posts here, which is exactly why I started to look at it. But that’s just my view, which is an impressive view of the whole valley that I didn’t have to pay extra for, courtesy of the tsuinami.

[temeculaguy]

You can lump me in with the cheerleaders, I like cheerleaders, especially the NBA and NFL ones. But that’s not what I do here even if it may seem so. The OP referenced my hood, one that I am arrogant enough to think I know and understand. Not the nation or the state or San Diego, but my neck of the woods, that I learned enough about in my 20 years here and my 4 years as an amatuer real estate research junkie. The anectdotal evidence of knowing people who aren’t paying needs to be put in perspective, that’s all I did. The eye of the storm came through here already, we won’t see recovery but we are at prices pushing against a fundamental floor. The bulk of the risk is gone, most houses are selling for less than the loss taken by the previous owner, therefore it is impossible to lose the same amount because houses will not go below zero. When $200 a square goes for $80 a square, the former owner (bank, taxpayer, et. al.) took a $120 a square hit, you can’t lose that much, the most you can lose is $80 but it is unlikely you will. Unlike stocks, houses rarely go to 0. At $200 a square all economic indicators were great, at $80 they are horrible but I still believe it is at $80 when you look past the news and should have ignored it at $200.

My anectdotal perspective. On my street of ten houses, everyone paid about 600k, all of them have been in distress for the last year. Myself and another guy recently bought repos for less than half, two more are in escrow for similar prices, another is about list for a similar price. One person paid cash I believe, possibly a second one, and one more is falling behind and about to be foreclosed on or sell short, they are trying a loan mod right now. Within a few months we should have 6 post implosion buyers and two outright owners, so there are two left to fall but I don’t them yet and don’t know their situation, but neither have a nod on file. This second wave of buyers have mortgages between 1k and 2k. So there are two more left to fall, to be reset with buyers in the new world of 20% down fixed mortgages at prices on par with rent, people that had to prove they qualified. So this does not keep me awake at night, there are fewer brown lawns (actually almost none because of the weather) but every week or two another one in the neighborhood gets bought and I see a sod truck drop off a a new lawn. With each new lawn I feel better. With more than half of the “cleansing” behind us, I have no fear about my hood, they aren’t all going to leave tomorrow because they just got here. a year or two ago, my new neighborhood was featured on local and national news because half the lawns were brown, many of those shows were linked on posts here, which is exactly why I started to look at it. But that’s just my view, which is an impressive view of the whole valley that I didn’t have to pay extra for, courtesy of the tsuinami.

[peterb]

It takes income to buy homes. This is the real wild card. At over 10% unemployment with no relief in sight, this is headed towards the worst contraction since the Great Depresssion. The next year or so could be devistating to the RE market if we held at this level. If it gets worse…..

[peterb]

It takes income to buy homes. This is the real wild card. At over 10% unemployment with no relief in sight, this is headed towards the worst contraction since the Great Depresssion. The next year or so could be devistating to the RE market if we held at this level. If it gets worse…..

[peterb]

It takes income to buy homes. This is the real wild card. At over 10% unemployment with no relief in sight, this is headed towards the worst contraction since the Great Depresssion. The next year or so could be devistating to the RE market if we held at this level. If it gets worse…..

[peterb]

It takes income to buy homes. This is the real wild card. At over 10% unemployment with no relief in sight, this is headed towards the worst contraction since the Great Depresssion. The next year or so could be devistating to the RE market if we held at this level. If it gets worse…..

[peterb]

It takes income to buy homes. This is the real wild card. At over 10% unemployment with no relief in sight, this is headed towards the worst contraction since the Great Depresssion. The next year or so could be devistating to the RE market if we held at this level. If it gets worse…..

[scaredyclassic]

maybe i should say I’d have to be an idiot to buy, not you’d have to be an idiot to buy. I just fear getting locked in and being unable to go. but, that’s unreasonable, since it’s very likely I’ll be right here for another 10-15 years. it’s just the thought of being stuck makes me feel scared. but I’ll probably just bite the bullet and buy something int he next 18 months. hopefully closer to 18 months than sooner.

[scaredyclassic]

maybe i should say I’d have to be an idiot to buy, not you’d have to be an idiot to buy. I just fear getting locked in and being unable to go. but, that’s unreasonable, since it’s very likely I’ll be right here for another 10-15 years. it’s just the thought of being stuck makes me feel scared. but I’ll probably just bite the bullet and buy something int he next 18 months. hopefully closer to 18 months than sooner.

[scaredyclassic]

maybe i should say I’d have to be an idiot to buy, not you’d have to be an idiot to buy. I just fear getting locked in and being unable to go. but, that’s unreasonable, since it’s very likely I’ll be right here for another 10-15 years. it’s just the thought of being stuck makes me feel scared. but I’ll probably just bite the bullet and buy something int he next 18 months. hopefully closer to 18 months than sooner.

[scaredyclassic]

maybe i should say I’d have to be an idiot to buy, not you’d have to be an idiot to buy. I just fear getting locked in and being unable to go. but, that’s unreasonable, since it’s very likely I’ll be right here for another 10-15 years. it’s just the thought of being stuck makes me feel scared. but I’ll probably just bite the bullet and buy something int he next 18 months. hopefully closer to 18 months than sooner.

[Author]

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