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sdrealtor.
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July 25, 2008 at 12:23 PM #247171July 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM #246954
bsrsharma
ParticipantFSD,
I think there is simply no demand that can sustain rents much more than $1000 (BTW, that was just an indicative figure I used), say beyond $1500, in today’s $, for Claremont area. People with earning potential to pay $2000 p.m. want to live better; either out-of-town or out-of-state. It is the U-Haul phenomenon, more than anything else, that will bring rents and home prices in line with incomes.
I just realized I am writing this to a Former SD!
July 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM #247107bsrsharma
ParticipantFSD,
I think there is simply no demand that can sustain rents much more than $1000 (BTW, that was just an indicative figure I used), say beyond $1500, in today’s $, for Claremont area. People with earning potential to pay $2000 p.m. want to live better; either out-of-town or out-of-state. It is the U-Haul phenomenon, more than anything else, that will bring rents and home prices in line with incomes.
I just realized I am writing this to a Former SD!
July 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM #247113bsrsharma
ParticipantFSD,
I think there is simply no demand that can sustain rents much more than $1000 (BTW, that was just an indicative figure I used), say beyond $1500, in today’s $, for Claremont area. People with earning potential to pay $2000 p.m. want to live better; either out-of-town or out-of-state. It is the U-Haul phenomenon, more than anything else, that will bring rents and home prices in line with incomes.
I just realized I am writing this to a Former SD!
July 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM #247170bsrsharma
ParticipantFSD,
I think there is simply no demand that can sustain rents much more than $1000 (BTW, that was just an indicative figure I used), say beyond $1500, in today’s $, for Claremont area. People with earning potential to pay $2000 p.m. want to live better; either out-of-town or out-of-state. It is the U-Haul phenomenon, more than anything else, that will bring rents and home prices in line with incomes.
I just realized I am writing this to a Former SD!
July 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM #247176bsrsharma
ParticipantFSD,
I think there is simply no demand that can sustain rents much more than $1000 (BTW, that was just an indicative figure I used), say beyond $1500, in today’s $, for Claremont area. People with earning potential to pay $2000 p.m. want to live better; either out-of-town or out-of-state. It is the U-Haul phenomenon, more than anything else, that will bring rents and home prices in line with incomes.
I just realized I am writing this to a Former SD!
July 25, 2008 at 1:34 PM #246979gdcox
ParticipantInfo on Fitch.
By the way, the mistake of the ratings agencies is very simple. None of their models allowed economists near them. It was all based on the statistics typical of actuaries (ie trends). If Rich has been let near their models in early 86, this whole thing would have been a lot less severe.
July 25, 2008 at 1:34 PM #247132gdcox
ParticipantInfo on Fitch.
By the way, the mistake of the ratings agencies is very simple. None of their models allowed economists near them. It was all based on the statistics typical of actuaries (ie trends). If Rich has been let near their models in early 86, this whole thing would have been a lot less severe.
July 25, 2008 at 1:34 PM #247138gdcox
ParticipantInfo on Fitch.
By the way, the mistake of the ratings agencies is very simple. None of their models allowed economists near them. It was all based on the statistics typical of actuaries (ie trends). If Rich has been let near their models in early 86, this whole thing would have been a lot less severe.
July 25, 2008 at 1:34 PM #247196gdcox
ParticipantInfo on Fitch.
By the way, the mistake of the ratings agencies is very simple. None of their models allowed economists near them. It was all based on the statistics typical of actuaries (ie trends). If Rich has been let near their models in early 86, this whole thing would have been a lot less severe.
July 25, 2008 at 1:34 PM #247201gdcox
ParticipantInfo on Fitch.
By the way, the mistake of the ratings agencies is very simple. None of their models allowed economists near them. It was all based on the statistics typical of actuaries (ie trends). If Rich has been let near their models in early 86, this whole thing would have been a lot less severe.
July 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM #246984DWCAP
ParticipantBsh,
I read that 1000 in rent things and thought “shit,,,, if I could rent a place for 1G,,,,,, SWEET!!” Then I though, nah, wed have to watch population plummet like, well like housing last fall/winter to get anywhere near that. Damn. Then I kinda said, well, it makes a nice multiple. for every 1g in rent…….. ok that makes sense.
I know I could swing a G/month in rent, alone. And in the wonderful world of piggington, where everyone is in the top few percentages, I am a total nobody. I doubt you will ever see that again without either nucular war or 1929-30 replaying.
But I do like the multiple side of it. It makes it really easy to multiple out to specific areas.
Rents have me so confused I dont know what to think. Houses that easily rented in MM for 1750 6 months ago now get 2000. 14% in 6 months? 2/2’s could easily be found for about 1350, and now are going for 1550. Again, about 14% in six months? Where the hell did that come from? But they get it. (I am guessing gas prices are doing unnormal things with regional demand).
I lived through a rental contraction like this once before. People camping out over weekends to get the chance to rent a place. Vacancy rates somewhere below 1%. Rental offices with signs saying “TOTALLY RENTED, please do not ask about vacancy”. It was insain. I got the very last Apt in my complex because I got lucky, and was able to drop everything and drive over there and cut a 2g deposit on the spot (in JANUARY, for September move in). Not many college kids can do that. It ended about 3 years later. Apt buildings offering 9 month leases, rents falling, flyers pleading with people to come visit the very same offices that 3 years earlier couldnt be bothered. Free months of rent, or furnishing’s provided. Anything and everything. Vacancy rate was ~10% and they knew it. It was weird.
Rents have been trending higher than wages, but nothing like housing, so I have no idea what will happen. All I know is if things keep on the path they are on, someday not too far off I’ll be making Uhaul just alittle bit richer too.
July 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM #247137DWCAP
ParticipantBsh,
I read that 1000 in rent things and thought “shit,,,, if I could rent a place for 1G,,,,,, SWEET!!” Then I though, nah, wed have to watch population plummet like, well like housing last fall/winter to get anywhere near that. Damn. Then I kinda said, well, it makes a nice multiple. for every 1g in rent…….. ok that makes sense.
I know I could swing a G/month in rent, alone. And in the wonderful world of piggington, where everyone is in the top few percentages, I am a total nobody. I doubt you will ever see that again without either nucular war or 1929-30 replaying.
But I do like the multiple side of it. It makes it really easy to multiple out to specific areas.
Rents have me so confused I dont know what to think. Houses that easily rented in MM for 1750 6 months ago now get 2000. 14% in 6 months? 2/2’s could easily be found for about 1350, and now are going for 1550. Again, about 14% in six months? Where the hell did that come from? But they get it. (I am guessing gas prices are doing unnormal things with regional demand).
I lived through a rental contraction like this once before. People camping out over weekends to get the chance to rent a place. Vacancy rates somewhere below 1%. Rental offices with signs saying “TOTALLY RENTED, please do not ask about vacancy”. It was insain. I got the very last Apt in my complex because I got lucky, and was able to drop everything and drive over there and cut a 2g deposit on the spot (in JANUARY, for September move in). Not many college kids can do that. It ended about 3 years later. Apt buildings offering 9 month leases, rents falling, flyers pleading with people to come visit the very same offices that 3 years earlier couldnt be bothered. Free months of rent, or furnishing’s provided. Anything and everything. Vacancy rate was ~10% and they knew it. It was weird.
Rents have been trending higher than wages, but nothing like housing, so I have no idea what will happen. All I know is if things keep on the path they are on, someday not too far off I’ll be making Uhaul just alittle bit richer too.
July 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM #247143DWCAP
ParticipantBsh,
I read that 1000 in rent things and thought “shit,,,, if I could rent a place for 1G,,,,,, SWEET!!” Then I though, nah, wed have to watch population plummet like, well like housing last fall/winter to get anywhere near that. Damn. Then I kinda said, well, it makes a nice multiple. for every 1g in rent…….. ok that makes sense.
I know I could swing a G/month in rent, alone. And in the wonderful world of piggington, where everyone is in the top few percentages, I am a total nobody. I doubt you will ever see that again without either nucular war or 1929-30 replaying.
But I do like the multiple side of it. It makes it really easy to multiple out to specific areas.
Rents have me so confused I dont know what to think. Houses that easily rented in MM for 1750 6 months ago now get 2000. 14% in 6 months? 2/2’s could easily be found for about 1350, and now are going for 1550. Again, about 14% in six months? Where the hell did that come from? But they get it. (I am guessing gas prices are doing unnormal things with regional demand).
I lived through a rental contraction like this once before. People camping out over weekends to get the chance to rent a place. Vacancy rates somewhere below 1%. Rental offices with signs saying “TOTALLY RENTED, please do not ask about vacancy”. It was insain. I got the very last Apt in my complex because I got lucky, and was able to drop everything and drive over there and cut a 2g deposit on the spot (in JANUARY, for September move in). Not many college kids can do that. It ended about 3 years later. Apt buildings offering 9 month leases, rents falling, flyers pleading with people to come visit the very same offices that 3 years earlier couldnt be bothered. Free months of rent, or furnishing’s provided. Anything and everything. Vacancy rate was ~10% and they knew it. It was weird.
Rents have been trending higher than wages, but nothing like housing, so I have no idea what will happen. All I know is if things keep on the path they are on, someday not too far off I’ll be making Uhaul just alittle bit richer too.
July 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM #247200DWCAP
ParticipantBsh,
I read that 1000 in rent things and thought “shit,,,, if I could rent a place for 1G,,,,,, SWEET!!” Then I though, nah, wed have to watch population plummet like, well like housing last fall/winter to get anywhere near that. Damn. Then I kinda said, well, it makes a nice multiple. for every 1g in rent…….. ok that makes sense.
I know I could swing a G/month in rent, alone. And in the wonderful world of piggington, where everyone is in the top few percentages, I am a total nobody. I doubt you will ever see that again without either nucular war or 1929-30 replaying.
But I do like the multiple side of it. It makes it really easy to multiple out to specific areas.
Rents have me so confused I dont know what to think. Houses that easily rented in MM for 1750 6 months ago now get 2000. 14% in 6 months? 2/2’s could easily be found for about 1350, and now are going for 1550. Again, about 14% in six months? Where the hell did that come from? But they get it. (I am guessing gas prices are doing unnormal things with regional demand).
I lived through a rental contraction like this once before. People camping out over weekends to get the chance to rent a place. Vacancy rates somewhere below 1%. Rental offices with signs saying “TOTALLY RENTED, please do not ask about vacancy”. It was insain. I got the very last Apt in my complex because I got lucky, and was able to drop everything and drive over there and cut a 2g deposit on the spot (in JANUARY, for September move in). Not many college kids can do that. It ended about 3 years later. Apt buildings offering 9 month leases, rents falling, flyers pleading with people to come visit the very same offices that 3 years earlier couldnt be bothered. Free months of rent, or furnishing’s provided. Anything and everything. Vacancy rate was ~10% and they knew it. It was weird.
Rents have been trending higher than wages, but nothing like housing, so I have no idea what will happen. All I know is if things keep on the path they are on, someday not too far off I’ll be making Uhaul just alittle bit richer too.
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