World War 3?

[North County Jim]

Reading through this thread, there seems to be a lot of agreement that China will overtake the US. Even assuming the days of American dominance are numbered, I just don’t see the Chinese ascending the throne.

We have a lot of long-term problems that have been discussed to death here (debt, debt and more debt) but I believe these pale in comparison to the Chinese.

First of all, they are still a totalitarian government. To my knowledge, there is not a great track record of commingling capitalism with a repressive government.

Second, they have a banking system weighed down by a lot of worthless loans to decrepit state industries.

Third, and I believe most important, they have a huge demographic time bomb looming that makes our social security problem look tame.

If you look at the recent history of the western countries, most were agrarian societies until the industrial revolution. As these countries became industrialized and wealthier, their birth rates gradually declined. The pattern that the western nations followed could be summarized as get rich, then get old. This is the SS problem in a nutshell.

China, on the other hand, will get old before it gets rich thanks to their one child policy.

If you think we’re going to have problems retiring the baby boom generation, how in the heck is China going to pull it off?

Oh, don’t they have a housing bubble as well?

[Anonymous]

Well said N.C. Jim. I hope you didn’t take my comments to infer that China would be the next major superpower. I don’t think that will be the case (at least not in the short to medium run), as you stated they have quite a road ahead of them to get where the U.S. is today but so far they have been doing it quite well. I think what China does have the immediate power to do is to increase our problems here in the U.S. and can attempt to level the playing field (creating a multipolar power balance) with a Russian, North Korean and Iranian alliance.

-re analyst

[carlislematthew]

Americans have a much shorter view of time than the Chinese. As a culture they are quite capable of taking a longer term view than we are.

I’m not sure if it’s cultural or political. Once Chinese governments are just concerned about being re-elected every 4 years, then I think we’ll see the same level of short-sightedness over there too.

[Anonymous]

U.S. policy toward China reflects the inherent contradictions and vagaries of our system of government. Unlike China, which highly regulates the transfer of power and setting of policy, our system features more turn-over, both in Congress and the White House, and the legislative-executive system of checks and balances often pulls policy in many competing directions.

It is absurd to read President Hu’s visit itinerary as reflecting that China has the “upper hand.” It does reflect priorities though, and should be taken into account accordingly.

And as for the U.S. being weakened on the international stage by our status as a debtor nation, it is widely evident that no nation since Rome has commanded such status as we do. Love us or hate us, our power is unmatched.

[Anonymous]

Deleted

[Anonymous]

Deleted: mistakenly triple-posted. My apologies.

[Anonymous]

The theories that hold the most weight in determining Rome’s fall appear to all be economic. Our financial status has a lot to do with whether we will hold a power position in the future. The reason we “won” out the cold war is purely because the U.S.S.R. could not compete with the U.S. economically. Money is power on the international scene. What happens if our currency becomes worth less and less and has very little global buying power and the countries consumption consists mainly of imports? Sure we can ramp back up our manufacturing sector in the long run but it’s going to be a painful and slow transition back.

-re analyst

[hipmatt]

You are a smart man. Living in america, its so easy to see that we consume more, waste more, spend more, worry less, and expect the fines luxuries like its our god given rights. Most of our spending has been financed by the way. Its pathetic and this is one area thats embarassing about being an american. Our materialism and vanity is our own worst enemy. We need to calm the hell down, save more, and live below our means, not 5x above them.

Your point about insulation is a good one, and one that we should adopt, but we’d rather spend that money on granite countertops that do absolutely nothing, than make our homes more efficient. And one ac unit isn’t enough you know, we have to have huge 3500+sqft homes to keep up with the Jones’s, so I need two AC units to cool my huge palace, day and night.

We can still attain the highest quaity of life on the planet even if we do take a look in the mirror and address the problems that we face rationally.

[PerryChase]

3500sqft +? How about 6500sqft to 7200sqft track homes that KB Home is building in Oceanside? Do buyers realize how long it takes to clean such a big home? What about the heating and cooling?

[rankandfile]

You are going to hate me, hipmatt, but I don’t know if criticizing America is going to solve anything in terms of averting World War 3. Concerning American consumerism, I hate to say it, but it is purely a function of human nature. Most people, in general, want to improve their future condition…whatever that may be. Simply put, they want to get better. That’s why capitalism works better than most other economical systems-it rewards ingenuity and hard work, two items that are essential to improving one’s situation.

It has often been implied that Americans are just a bunch of lazy consumers. I do not agree with this. I think that we are more competitive and entreprenurial than most other nations as a whole and that’s why we are successful. Don’t be misled by media propaganda, many other nations are currently partaking in many of the same consumeristic activities that we are…or they are striving to get to that point. I’ve been to Switzerland and Italy and I saw a lot of people driving large Mercedes sedans or SUVs. Sure, there were a lot of smaller cars in relation to what we see here in SoCal, but I think that might be more a function of the higher gas prices and the small city roads there. You don’t think that people in China and India are striving to make a better life for themselves by acquiring personal wealth?

Purchasing things like granite countertops is an investment in one’s property…it is meant to add value. Just like a city that installs concrete curbs and sidewalks rather than just keeping it as dirt. They are investments that serve a purpose and add value.

Now purchasing an SUV in this day and age is, IMHO, a poor investment and I wouldn’t personally do it. The only time I have a problem with people that own SUVs is when they think they are special and try to bully their way around on the road or take up 2 parking spots.

[speedingpullet]

To a certain extent rankandfile I’d agree with you.
Historically the USA has been the powerhouse of the Western World. Many countries, including my own (The UK), looked to the States for its energy and ‘go-to-it-iveness’. The US certainly helped raise the standard of living in many European countries and despite the ‘America-bashing’ you hear sometimes, many countries like you and remember what you did for them post WWII. Its no accident that the UK is still one of the countries that supports you almost unquestioningly.

Unfortunately, that was then and this is now.
World perception of the States is that you’ve lost control of that thriftyness and entrepeneurial spirit and replaced it with mass consumerism at any cost.
When others see you driving around in huge gas-guzzlers, living in enormous inefficient houses, running ridiculously oversized, well, everything, they wonder what happened to you.

As to ‘people want better’, well everybody wants better.
You consume far more energy per capita than any other country on the planet, but yet it never seems to be enough, and you never seem happy.

The worrying thing is that many developing countries use the US as a model, want the consumerism that goes with the ‘American Lifestyle’. If you’re already running into trouble (energy consumption and personal debt just being two of many problems), what’s going to happen when China and India really get into thier stride? Take oil away from the US and we’ll truly see WWIII…

I’m not trying to slate the US, on a personal level it has many fine people and places, and I for one an happy to be here. I just think that sometimes America as a whole loses track of how others see it.

As to the granite counters vs roof insulation, give me insulation any time!

Granite countertops tell me that the seller is trying to ‘improve’ thier home cosmetically, while insulation tells me they’re trying to do it practially. With the money I save from my cooling/heating bills, in a year or two I can buy my own granite countertops!

[Anonymous]

While it is popular to think we won the Cold War by outspending the Soviets, that is not entirely true. The USSR maintained its empire through threat, coercion, and fear. Their blood-letting in Afghanistan, aided in no small part by our supply of materiel support to the Afghan mujahideen, seriously weakened the strength of its union. Unlike the U.S. in Vietnam, they were not resilient enough to suffer such a loss of prestige.

That is not to discount the important ramifications of our current state of fiscal affairs, just that there are multiple dimensions to power. Another key one would be ability to leverage diplomatic pressure to achieve desired outcomes–which we have had some difficulty with, to be put it mildly.

[Anonymous]

What we see today is really something that we have seen before. It even has a name that was attributed to it in 1849 called “Gold Fever”. This fever, just as it did in the Gold Rush days, gets in the way of our common sense, makes us do things we wouldn’t normally do under other circumstances, has us risk everything just for a little piece of the stuff. The “Gold Rush” has just manifested itself in new ways (in the stock and housing market), where there are a tremendous amount of new, inexperienced “miners buying into the fever”. “Herd” behavior existed then and exists now. The sad part is for a lucky few it works out really well, and the majority are left worse off and what makes it even more terrible is that everyone has been consuming as though they had found mountains of the stuff when, if they look closely, they’ll see all they have is fool’s gold.

-re analyst

[Anonymous]

I think your example of U.S.S.R. and Afghanistan proves out the point. War’s are generally not prevented based on economic reasons but they are won out by them. Wars are one by a matter of logistics. They are often about attrition and whom can withstand what the longest; which country has created a system that can sustain itself through long periods of conflict. Greater world tensions between superpowers are borne out in smaller conflicts, such as with Afghanistan; and today such as with the Middle East, North Korea and perhaps in the future Taiwan. Neither side wants all out war (especially in the nuclear age) and so we fight “mini” conflicts that will hopefully lead to some greater outcome. The greater war is the global power struggle with the battlefields being “minor” wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Iran, Korea, etc.). Much will be determined in these conflicts and much will be exposed about weaknesses in current U.S. power and we will have to either concede our position as Global Superpower or fight it all the way down.

-re analyst

[PerryChase]

Back to real estate. I think that if WWIII were to come about , we need to think of a place to live where we could be self-sustaining. Someplace where there’s abondant water, where we could raise chickens and grow vegetables for food? Someplace far from strategic installations that will be destroyed. San Diego would definitely not work since we could not live long without the water infrastructure. Any idea where such as place might be?

[Author]

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