World War 3?

[lindismith]

Our country does have a plan: we are actively in Iraq right now. The whole south-western corner has been carved up into sections that each big oil company can start drilling. I’ve mentioned it before, but if you’re new to this forum and interested in this subject, read McQuaig’s “It’s the Crude, Dude.”
This strategy of occupying the Middle East goes back to the time of Kissinger. I don’t mean to be facetious here. This really is their plan.

[powayseller]

Yes, it makes sense that we went into Iraq for the oil,but how does that help us? We are supposedly drilling all the major oil fields, and there are no big undiscovered fields. What will keep oil from going to $100 this year? Demand from China is soaring, and they are making their own oil agreements with various countries.

[CardiffBaseball]

The focal point of terror in the world is basically surrounded. American bases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, etc. Iran has a vibrant youth movement that wants to move away from the 12th century Mullahs/Imams. Part of the desperation in their nutjob leader can be summed up by this picture.

[img_assist|nid=908|title=Iran Surrounded|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=362]

[carlislematthew]

Why else would Brazil be ahead of us?

Because their population is MUCH smaller and they already use much less gasoline, so the scope of the problem is much smaller. In addition, they make ethanol out of sugar (cane, I think) which is a MUCH MUCH more efficient way to make ethanol. My understanding is that making sugar from corn, like we do in the US, uses a lot of energy and so the net energy you get out of it isn’t very much.

Also, imagine a significant portion of the US went to corn-produced ethanol. Imagine how much fertilizer we’d be dumping into our rivers and seas. It’s quite bad already, I’m not sure I’d want to increase the problem by 100, or 1000, or 10,000 times.

There are newer forms of ethanol production that are being worked on (cellulosic ethanol?) that is a process that can work with a lot of organic waste materials: sawdust, sticks, I dunno, lots of stuff. Politicians like to talk about this one a lot, so that makes me suspicious that it’s just something in the future we can point to so that we don’t have to do anything NOW.

[carlislematthew]

Newt Gingrich stated that he thinks that we are in the early stages of WW3 on Meet the Press on Sunday, July 16th, 2006.

I’ve heard this referred to as the “Hitler of the day” complex. Basically, pick your regional thug and turn him into a huge monster. Whip up some panic. Throw in a dash of military defense spending. Voila.

[carlislematthew]

Newt Gingrich stated that he thinks that we are in the early stages of WW3 on Meet the Press on Sunday, July 16th, 2006.

I’ve heard this referred to as the “Hitler of the day” complex. Basically, pick your regional thug and turn him into a huge monster. Whip up some panic. Throw in a dash of military defense spending. Voila.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

Re: oil companies record profits….

The oil companies are making record profits because the price of their main product, crude oil, is currently trading at historic highs. The oil companies have NO part in setting the price for crude oil; it is set on the open market by willing buyers and sellers. Why blame international oil companies (like BP, Exxon, Chevron)? Why not the national oil companies like Saudi Aramco, Mexico’s PEMEX, Vensuela’s PVSDA, etc. who control over 90% of existing production? Oil is a global commodity, so all global sellers and buyers take part in setting the price. If you do not like the price of gasoline, flex your economic muscle and purchase less of their product. It is really that simple.

So why is oil currently so expensive? The is tremedously complex subject that cannot be simplified by blaming “price gouging” or saying that “oil is running out”. There is a fierce debate raging on just exactly how much oil we can ever reasonably expect to produce, but it is clear to me and many other observers that the era cheap energy is over. All the complaining about high gas prices will not stop us from making fundametal lifestyle changes over the next 10-20 years, whether we do so voluntarily or not.

One more thought: regulation, or price controls, is probably the worst thing we can do. Not only is it un-American, but it artificailly encourages consumption. There is simply not enough gasoline for everyone to have as much as they want at the price they want to pay.

I could recommend many books, but if you read just one, let this be it:

[lindismith]

Thanks for the book. I will definitely get it. And agreed, no regulation, no subsidies! Free market only.

What are the things I could personally do to “flex my economic muscle and purchase less of the product”?

[blahblahblah]

I quit my job and now work out of my home. I put about 5K miles on my car last year, down from 15K the year before.

And of course everyone can work out of their home if they become a real-estate investor! Ba-dum-pum. Tip your waitresses, ladies and gentlemen, I’ll be here all week…

[speedingpullet]

Simple things to use less gas:

Don’t buy/lease a new car every year.

Get a car with a minimum of 30mpg on surface roads.

Get rid of the SUV, unless you have over 4 children, work on a farm, or work at speculative geology in Alaska for a living.

Buy a bike and do your errands on that if you’re just going to the store for a quart of milk etc..

Turn your airco thermostat up a degree, turn your heating thermostat down a degree. You won’t notice the difference and even a degree more/less will lower your bill.

If you own a home, look into getting your roof/attic insulated. The UK has had homeowners incentives and regulations for years, and most homes have seen considerable heating reductions (heating being more important than cooling in Britain), by laying 4 inches of insulation in roofs and attics.

Another thing homeowners can look into is solar powered water heating. Solar panels have had a technological surge in recent years, and are twice as effective as they used to be. In a state (CA) that gets over 250 days sunshine a year, it’s money for old rope. IIRC, the state even has incentives to help homeowners convert to solar heating.

If you’re willing to shell out some serious cash, you can even convert your house to run completly on solar power. The downside being that its intially expensive. The upside that, once converted, your house may very well put energy into the Natonal Grid, and your DWP bill will be a credit, rather than a debit.

Look into getting a Grey Water septic tank – you can irrigate your yard using shower water/dishwasher water, etc…you’ve already bought the water, so why not use it again?

Consider converting some of those 100’s of sq ft of water-intensive lawn into a vegetable garden. Nothing fancy, in fact you could even grow herbs, tomatoes, zucchini, peppers, potatoes etc.. in containers if you love your lawn too much to give it up. Not only almost free vegetables, but you’ve just saved the cost of transportation (average distance 1500 miles) for food that can be easily grown in your yard.

Don’t get me started on this 😉 Maybe its something to do with growing up in London, where every square foot is precious and gas has cost $5 a gallon for decades.

I know that the US was once a thrifty and frugal place, but it seems in recent decades the whole place has thrown that out the wndow and replaced it with The Culture of Bling.

[speedingpullet]

Simple things to use less gas:

Don’t buy/lease a new car every year.

Get a car with a minimum of 30mpg on surface roads.

Get rid of the SUV, unless you have over 4 children, work on a farm, or work at speculative geology in Alaska for a living.

Buy a bike and do your errands on that if you’re just going to the store for a quart of milk etc..

Turn your airco thermostat up a degree, turn your heating thermostat down a degree. You won’t notice the difference and even a degree more/less will lower your bill.

Slightly less simple, but do-able:

If you own a home, look into getting your roof/attic insulated. The UK has had homeowners incentives and regulations for years, and most homes have seen considerable heating reductions (heating being more important than cooling in Britain), by laying 4 inches of insulation in roofs and attics.

Another thing homeowners can look into is solar powered water heating. Solar panels have had a technological surge in recent years, and are twice as effective as they used to be. In a state (CA) that gets over 250 days sunshine a year, it’s money for old rope. IIRC, the state even has incentives to help homeowners convert to solar heating.

If you’re willing to shell out some serious cash, you can even convert your house to run completly on solar power. The downside being that its intially expensive. The upside that, once converted, your house may very well put energy into the Natonal Grid, and your DWP bill will be a credit, rather than a debit.

Look into getting a Grey Water septic tank – you can irrigate your yard using shower water/dishwasher water, etc…you’ve already bought the water, so why not use it again?

Consider converting some of those 100’s of sq ft of water-intensive lawn into a vegetable garden. Nothing fancy, in fact you could even grow herbs, tomatoes, zucchini, peppers, potatoes etc.. in containers if you love your lawn too much to give it up. Not only almost free vegetables, but you’ve just saved the cost of transportation (average distance 1500 miles) for food that can be easily grown in your yard.

Don’t get me started on this 😉 Maybe its something to do with growing up in London, where every square foot is precious and gas has cost $5 a gallon for decades.

I know that the US was once a thrifty and frugal place, but it seems in recent decades the whole place has thrown that out the wndow and replaced it with The Culture of Bling.

[lindismith]

Great posts! Are you all coming to the meet up on Sat?

I’d love to know if anyone else has any ideas on how they can “flex their economic muscle”?

It seems to me no one really does this. Or maybe no one thinks these things make any difference?

Regarding the price setting. From what I understand, this is done by OPEC. But the oil companies know we are dependent, so they just charge the higher prices, and keep the same margins.
I don’t believe they are completely innocent bystanders here. And why would they be? They’re in business after all. It just bugs me because I think our Whitehouse is in bed with them.

We really need to get off our dependence on oil.

Does anyone know of any up coming companies that offer alternative energies? Where are they located? What are they offering us? Why can’t we get access to these? Can we invest in them?

I have some marketing work with bio-diesel folks, but it’s just not a scalable alternative.

[speedingpullet]

I don’t know much about biodiesel (except that its not possible to have a private company that ‘harvests’ reastaurants/fast foods, for some reason…), but I do know a guy who installed solar heating for his swimming pool last year, which has already paid for itself.
I’ll see if I can get some figures and contact numbers for you.

[Anonymous]

It worries me a bit that there is so much talk about WWIII. I am not of the camp that would want to see this turn into war and I’m hoping that this is just for sensationalistic appeal, but this sort of thing can become self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes, China would have us as a business partner but if you look at the past world wars, you’ll find economics did not have anything to do with preventing war. Past world wars were also set off by what many would consider to be small conflicts. The problem arises when powers begin to mobilize their military to show a credible commitment to war. The U.S. is a declining hegemonic power that is on the brink of economic crisis and we have a greater interest vested in the Middle East then we have ever had before. We could be pulled into this conflict quite easily. Israel will continue to attack and may end up pulling Syria and Iran into this. The U.S. considers Iran a legitimate threat and may use the opportunity to “assist” Israel in the defeat of Iran. China and Russia have great interest in Iran as an economic, energy and military power, but that is probably not how China would be brought into this. China would be brought in by making a timely and intentional grab for Taiwan, at a time when the U.S. is already stretched out thin militarily and fighting wars on multiple fronts (including an economic and housing meltdown at home). But you say “China couldn’t possibly compare militarily to the U.S.”. Well to that I say, hello there Russia! Both China and Russia have been performing joint military exercises and China has been a huge consumer of Russian warfare technology and arms. In addition China could drive a dagger right into the heart of the already damaged U.S. economic engine by dumping their U.S. dollar reserves (only second to Japan in holdings) and making our currency substantially weaker than it already is. India could also play a role in further exacerbation of global conflict.

Here is an interesting article that details the Iran/China/Russia alliance, although it was written a year ago it is still as important today: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF04Ad07.html

-re analyst

[lindismith]

China and Russia are neighbors. It makes sense for them to try to get along. Like us and Canada.

To add to your thoughts – I worry that our government knows we are headed for an economic slowdown, and to keep the economy going will opt for the input of the War Machine and invade Iran.

[Author]

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