Why is San Diego real estate still so expensive?

[OBecian]

Well, let’s also not forget that market forces in general are not being allowed to operate freely. I think even most piggs have been surprised by the amount of government intervention in the housing market. Not to mention the constant devaluing of the dollar. As long as nominal prices remain constant, the masses will be happy and not pay attention to real inflation adjusted prices. BB said QE3 could be coming soon…

Yes, SD is a very nice place to live. But that relative value probably did get exaggerated during the bubble because of the false sense of wealth most people felt. How long it will take to return to a higher than average “normal” is a good question.

[paramount]

I hope the OP and anyone reading these comments will consider sources. Ask a realtor who sells in San Diego about San Diego and I think the response would be highly predictable. San Diego “The land where the Sun always shines.”

Is San Diego so nice that it’s worth considerable personal or family sacrifices? Not IMO.

There’s a lot of marketing behind San Diego –

Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Come on in and see what’s happening
Pay the price, get your tickets for the show…

[paramount]

I hope the OP and anyone reading these comments will consider sources. Ask a realtor who sells in San Diego about San Diego and I think the response would be highly predictable. San Diego “The land where the Sun always shines.”

Is San Diego so nice that it’s worth considerable personal or family sacrifices? Not IMO.

There’s a lot of marketing behind San Diego –

Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Come on in and see what’s happening
Pay the price, get your tickets for the show…

[paramount]

I hope the OP and anyone reading these comments will consider sources. Ask a realtor who sells in San Diego about San Diego and I think the response would be highly predictable. San Diego “The land where the Sun always shines.”

Is San Diego so nice that it’s worth considerable personal or family sacrifices? Not IMO.

There’s a lot of marketing behind San Diego –

Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Come on in and see what’s happening
Pay the price, get your tickets for the show…

[paramount]

I hope the OP and anyone reading these comments will consider sources. Ask a realtor who sells in San Diego about San Diego and I think the response would be highly predictable. San Diego “The land where the Sun always shines.”

Is San Diego so nice that it’s worth considerable personal or family sacrifices? Not IMO.

There’s a lot of marketing behind San Diego –

Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Come on in and see what’s happening
Pay the price, get your tickets for the show…

[paramount]

I hope the OP and anyone reading these comments will consider sources. Ask a realtor who sells in San Diego about San Diego and I think the response would be highly predictable. San Diego “The land where the Sun always shines.”

Is San Diego so nice that it’s worth considerable personal or family sacrifices? Not IMO.

There’s a lot of marketing behind San Diego –

Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Come on in and see what’s happening
Pay the price, get your tickets for the show…

[permabear]

[quote=AN][quote=permabear][quote=SD Realtor]The median home price has never matched up to any other averages, not now, not 10 years ago, not 20 years ago. It is doubtful that they ever will.[/quote]

Even in San Diego, 200k is a GOOD salary. Look at any of the city-data.com stats and it’s in the minority of incomes, even in 92127 or 92130. People earning 200k should have a nice selection of 4x-5x income homes to choose from, eg, 800k-1M.[/quote]
Did you cut and paste this post from 2005? I see plenty of great houses in the 800k-1M range. People making 200k+ have to look for a smaller place a way out? What’s considered small (4000 sq-ft)?[/quote]

I’m looking at 92131, 92127, and 92064. If you’re making 200k, you’re in the top 5% of earners for any of those areas. That means you should be able to afford the top 5% of homes. I know 92131 inside out, and here’s what I see.

Here’s a home that’s in the top 5% in 92131, at $1.2M:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10746-Edenoaks-St-92131/home/4835892

Not selling. Here’s another one, at $1.1M (started at 1.2):

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/12469-Rue-Fountainbleau-92131/home/4832657

Backs to a major street, not selling. Here’s another one, down in the 800k range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10318-Walnutdale-St-92131/home/4832693

Fell out – “need new buyer”. Good value for the home itself, but no backyard.

I’ve been in all of those homes, and they’re nice. But if you’re making 200k all but the last one are too expensive, even by SD standards. And the last one is a heavily remodeled tract home; it’s not in the same league as the first two. Would love to see counterexamples.

[permabear]

[quote=AN][quote=permabear][quote=SD Realtor]The median home price has never matched up to any other averages, not now, not 10 years ago, not 20 years ago. It is doubtful that they ever will.[/quote]

Even in San Diego, 200k is a GOOD salary. Look at any of the city-data.com stats and it’s in the minority of incomes, even in 92127 or 92130. People earning 200k should have a nice selection of 4x-5x income homes to choose from, eg, 800k-1M.[/quote]
Did you cut and paste this post from 2005? I see plenty of great houses in the 800k-1M range. People making 200k+ have to look for a smaller place a way out? What’s considered small (4000 sq-ft)?[/quote]

I’m looking at 92131, 92127, and 92064. If you’re making 200k, you’re in the top 5% of earners for any of those areas. That means you should be able to afford the top 5% of homes. I know 92131 inside out, and here’s what I see.

Here’s a home that’s in the top 5% in 92131, at $1.2M:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10746-Edenoaks-St-92131/home/4835892

Not selling. Here’s another one, at $1.1M (started at 1.2):

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/12469-Rue-Fountainbleau-92131/home/4832657

Backs to a major street, not selling. Here’s another one, down in the 800k range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10318-Walnutdale-St-92131/home/4832693

Fell out – “need new buyer”. Good value for the home itself, but no backyard.

I’ve been in all of those homes, and they’re nice. But if you’re making 200k all but the last one are too expensive, even by SD standards. And the last one is a heavily remodeled tract home; it’s not in the same league as the first two. Would love to see counterexamples.

[permabear]

[quote=AN][quote=permabear][quote=SD Realtor]The median home price has never matched up to any other averages, not now, not 10 years ago, not 20 years ago. It is doubtful that they ever will.[/quote]

Even in San Diego, 200k is a GOOD salary. Look at any of the city-data.com stats and it’s in the minority of incomes, even in 92127 or 92130. People earning 200k should have a nice selection of 4x-5x income homes to choose from, eg, 800k-1M.[/quote]
Did you cut and paste this post from 2005? I see plenty of great houses in the 800k-1M range. People making 200k+ have to look for a smaller place a way out? What’s considered small (4000 sq-ft)?[/quote]

I’m looking at 92131, 92127, and 92064. If you’re making 200k, you’re in the top 5% of earners for any of those areas. That means you should be able to afford the top 5% of homes. I know 92131 inside out, and here’s what I see.

Here’s a home that’s in the top 5% in 92131, at $1.2M:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10746-Edenoaks-St-92131/home/4835892

Not selling. Here’s another one, at $1.1M (started at 1.2):

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/12469-Rue-Fountainbleau-92131/home/4832657

Backs to a major street, not selling. Here’s another one, down in the 800k range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10318-Walnutdale-St-92131/home/4832693

Fell out – “need new buyer”. Good value for the home itself, but no backyard.

I’ve been in all of those homes, and they’re nice. But if you’re making 200k all but the last one are too expensive, even by SD standards. And the last one is a heavily remodeled tract home; it’s not in the same league as the first two. Would love to see counterexamples.

[permabear]

[quote=AN][quote=permabear][quote=SD Realtor]The median home price has never matched up to any other averages, not now, not 10 years ago, not 20 years ago. It is doubtful that they ever will.[/quote]

Even in San Diego, 200k is a GOOD salary. Look at any of the city-data.com stats and it’s in the minority of incomes, even in 92127 or 92130. People earning 200k should have a nice selection of 4x-5x income homes to choose from, eg, 800k-1M.[/quote]
Did you cut and paste this post from 2005? I see plenty of great houses in the 800k-1M range. People making 200k+ have to look for a smaller place a way out? What’s considered small (4000 sq-ft)?[/quote]

I’m looking at 92131, 92127, and 92064. If you’re making 200k, you’re in the top 5% of earners for any of those areas. That means you should be able to afford the top 5% of homes. I know 92131 inside out, and here’s what I see.

Here’s a home that’s in the top 5% in 92131, at $1.2M:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10746-Edenoaks-St-92131/home/4835892

Not selling. Here’s another one, at $1.1M (started at 1.2):

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/12469-Rue-Fountainbleau-92131/home/4832657

Backs to a major street, not selling. Here’s another one, down in the 800k range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10318-Walnutdale-St-92131/home/4832693

Fell out – “need new buyer”. Good value for the home itself, but no backyard.

I’ve been in all of those homes, and they’re nice. But if you’re making 200k all but the last one are too expensive, even by SD standards. And the last one is a heavily remodeled tract home; it’s not in the same league as the first two. Would love to see counterexamples.

[permabear]

[quote=AN][quote=permabear][quote=SD Realtor]The median home price has never matched up to any other averages, not now, not 10 years ago, not 20 years ago. It is doubtful that they ever will.[/quote]

Even in San Diego, 200k is a GOOD salary. Look at any of the city-data.com stats and it’s in the minority of incomes, even in 92127 or 92130. People earning 200k should have a nice selection of 4x-5x income homes to choose from, eg, 800k-1M.[/quote]
Did you cut and paste this post from 2005? I see plenty of great houses in the 800k-1M range. People making 200k+ have to look for a smaller place a way out? What’s considered small (4000 sq-ft)?[/quote]

I’m looking at 92131, 92127, and 92064. If you’re making 200k, you’re in the top 5% of earners for any of those areas. That means you should be able to afford the top 5% of homes. I know 92131 inside out, and here’s what I see.

Here’s a home that’s in the top 5% in 92131, at $1.2M:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10746-Edenoaks-St-92131/home/4835892

Not selling. Here’s another one, at $1.1M (started at 1.2):

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/12469-Rue-Fountainbleau-92131/home/4832657

Backs to a major street, not selling. Here’s another one, down in the 800k range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10318-Walnutdale-St-92131/home/4832693

Fell out – “need new buyer”. Good value for the home itself, but no backyard.

I’ve been in all of those homes, and they’re nice. But if you’re making 200k all but the last one are too expensive, even by SD standards. And the last one is a heavily remodeled tract home; it’s not in the same league as the first two. Would love to see counterexamples.

[temeculaguy]

Tax credits do not explain the differences in prices between two places that both benefit from the same tax break. In fact, the higher end San Diego areas were ineligible for the tax credit because of income restrictions.

It’s not spin from realtors, look at rich’s graphs, it is now at it’s historical norm. Some San Diego county places have become less affordable because they were “way out” places 10 or 20 years ago but now they are no longer “way out”. I remember when I lived in Tierrasanta and some friends didn’t want to come visit me because I lived in the sticks. I remember Encinitas being considered another time zone, a place you got gas on the way to L.A. They benefited because the population came to them, today’s “way out” place may be tomorrows hot spot. 200k combined income gives you plenty of options, maybe not every house in every town, but probably most houses in most towns. The reason they can’t go buy the best house in the best town is that the other buyers making 200k combined aren’t buying thier first house, they are moving up with the profits from their first house, or they saved a lot over the years.

When something lasts more than 20 years, it’s not because of this or that, it is the norm. I left San Diego 20 years ago because R/E seemed overpriced. I agree that it still seems overpriced, but in those 20 years, through up and down cycles, nothing ever changed much. That makes me think that it wont make any big changes anytime soon.

One other note, if you look at the population of the county and the city in the last 50-60 years, the area outside of city limits has seen the most growth. It lends more validity to the “way out there” theory.

1950 city 333k county 556k
1960 city 573k county 1 mil
1970 city 700k county 1.35 mil
1980 city 875k county 1.8 mil
1990 city 1.1mil county 2.5 mil
2000 city 1.2mil county 2.8 mil
2009 city 1.4mil county 3.2 mil

The city’s population grew 4x in that span but the area outside city limits grew 6x. In 1950 2/3 of the population lived inside the city, now it’s far less than half, it wasn’t until 1980 that the tipping point was reached when more people lived outside the city than inside it. In 1980, highway 15 had stop signs. This explains somewhat why many people have memories of plumbers and teachers buying nice places in Poway or Carlsbad during their childhood, because in 1960, there were only 427k people dividing up everything outside of the city limits. Today there are 1.8 million people dividing it up. That is a market force. If the county population ever hits 6 million, 30 years from now, people will wonder why Santee got so expensive. Actually since they built the 52, that started to happen already. Tell your friends to take their 200k and buy a place that they feel is in the path of progress. 200k does not make the world your oyster, you still have to plan a little, but it can be done.

[temeculaguy]

Tax credits do not explain the differences in prices between two places that both benefit from the same tax break. In fact, the higher end San Diego areas were ineligible for the tax credit because of income restrictions.

It’s not spin from realtors, look at rich’s graphs, it is now at it’s historical norm. Some San Diego county places have become less affordable because they were “way out” places 10 or 20 years ago but now they are no longer “way out”. I remember when I lived in Tierrasanta and some friends didn’t want to come visit me because I lived in the sticks. I remember Encinitas being considered another time zone, a place you got gas on the way to L.A. They benefited because the population came to them, today’s “way out” place may be tomorrows hot spot. 200k combined income gives you plenty of options, maybe not every house in every town, but probably most houses in most towns. The reason they can’t go buy the best house in the best town is that the other buyers making 200k combined aren’t buying thier first house, they are moving up with the profits from their first house, or they saved a lot over the years.

When something lasts more than 20 years, it’s not because of this or that, it is the norm. I left San Diego 20 years ago because R/E seemed overpriced. I agree that it still seems overpriced, but in those 20 years, through up and down cycles, nothing ever changed much. That makes me think that it wont make any big changes anytime soon.

One other note, if you look at the population of the county and the city in the last 50-60 years, the area outside of city limits has seen the most growth. It lends more validity to the “way out there” theory.

1950 city 333k county 556k
1960 city 573k county 1 mil
1970 city 700k county 1.35 mil
1980 city 875k county 1.8 mil
1990 city 1.1mil county 2.5 mil
2000 city 1.2mil county 2.8 mil
2009 city 1.4mil county 3.2 mil

The city’s population grew 4x in that span but the area outside city limits grew 6x. In 1950 2/3 of the population lived inside the city, now it’s far less than half, it wasn’t until 1980 that the tipping point was reached when more people lived outside the city than inside it. In 1980, highway 15 had stop signs. This explains somewhat why many people have memories of plumbers and teachers buying nice places in Poway or Carlsbad during their childhood, because in 1960, there were only 427k people dividing up everything outside of the city limits. Today there are 1.8 million people dividing it up. That is a market force. If the county population ever hits 6 million, 30 years from now, people will wonder why Santee got so expensive. Actually since they built the 52, that started to happen already. Tell your friends to take their 200k and buy a place that they feel is in the path of progress. 200k does not make the world your oyster, you still have to plan a little, but it can be done.

[temeculaguy]

Tax credits do not explain the differences in prices between two places that both benefit from the same tax break. In fact, the higher end San Diego areas were ineligible for the tax credit because of income restrictions.

It’s not spin from realtors, look at rich’s graphs, it is now at it’s historical norm. Some San Diego county places have become less affordable because they were “way out” places 10 or 20 years ago but now they are no longer “way out”. I remember when I lived in Tierrasanta and some friends didn’t want to come visit me because I lived in the sticks. I remember Encinitas being considered another time zone, a place you got gas on the way to L.A. They benefited because the population came to them, today’s “way out” place may be tomorrows hot spot. 200k combined income gives you plenty of options, maybe not every house in every town, but probably most houses in most towns. The reason they can’t go buy the best house in the best town is that the other buyers making 200k combined aren’t buying thier first house, they are moving up with the profits from their first house, or they saved a lot over the years.

When something lasts more than 20 years, it’s not because of this or that, it is the norm. I left San Diego 20 years ago because R/E seemed overpriced. I agree that it still seems overpriced, but in those 20 years, through up and down cycles, nothing ever changed much. That makes me think that it wont make any big changes anytime soon.

One other note, if you look at the population of the county and the city in the last 50-60 years, the area outside of city limits has seen the most growth. It lends more validity to the “way out there” theory.

1950 city 333k county 556k
1960 city 573k county 1 mil
1970 city 700k county 1.35 mil
1980 city 875k county 1.8 mil
1990 city 1.1mil county 2.5 mil
2000 city 1.2mil county 2.8 mil
2009 city 1.4mil county 3.2 mil

The city’s population grew 4x in that span but the area outside city limits grew 6x. In 1950 2/3 of the population lived inside the city, now it’s far less than half, it wasn’t until 1980 that the tipping point was reached when more people lived outside the city than inside it. In 1980, highway 15 had stop signs. This explains somewhat why many people have memories of plumbers and teachers buying nice places in Poway or Carlsbad during their childhood, because in 1960, there were only 427k people dividing up everything outside of the city limits. Today there are 1.8 million people dividing it up. That is a market force. If the county population ever hits 6 million, 30 years from now, people will wonder why Santee got so expensive. Actually since they built the 52, that started to happen already. Tell your friends to take their 200k and buy a place that they feel is in the path of progress. 200k does not make the world your oyster, you still have to plan a little, but it can be done.

[temeculaguy]

Tax credits do not explain the differences in prices between two places that both benefit from the same tax break. In fact, the higher end San Diego areas were ineligible for the tax credit because of income restrictions.

It’s not spin from realtors, look at rich’s graphs, it is now at it’s historical norm. Some San Diego county places have become less affordable because they were “way out” places 10 or 20 years ago but now they are no longer “way out”. I remember when I lived in Tierrasanta and some friends didn’t want to come visit me because I lived in the sticks. I remember Encinitas being considered another time zone, a place you got gas on the way to L.A. They benefited because the population came to them, today’s “way out” place may be tomorrows hot spot. 200k combined income gives you plenty of options, maybe not every house in every town, but probably most houses in most towns. The reason they can’t go buy the best house in the best town is that the other buyers making 200k combined aren’t buying thier first house, they are moving up with the profits from their first house, or they saved a lot over the years.

When something lasts more than 20 years, it’s not because of this or that, it is the norm. I left San Diego 20 years ago because R/E seemed overpriced. I agree that it still seems overpriced, but in those 20 years, through up and down cycles, nothing ever changed much. That makes me think that it wont make any big changes anytime soon.

One other note, if you look at the population of the county and the city in the last 50-60 years, the area outside of city limits has seen the most growth. It lends more validity to the “way out there” theory.

1950 city 333k county 556k
1960 city 573k county 1 mil
1970 city 700k county 1.35 mil
1980 city 875k county 1.8 mil
1990 city 1.1mil county 2.5 mil
2000 city 1.2mil county 2.8 mil
2009 city 1.4mil county 3.2 mil

The city’s population grew 4x in that span but the area outside city limits grew 6x. In 1950 2/3 of the population lived inside the city, now it’s far less than half, it wasn’t until 1980 that the tipping point was reached when more people lived outside the city than inside it. In 1980, highway 15 had stop signs. This explains somewhat why many people have memories of plumbers and teachers buying nice places in Poway or Carlsbad during their childhood, because in 1960, there were only 427k people dividing up everything outside of the city limits. Today there are 1.8 million people dividing it up. That is a market force. If the county population ever hits 6 million, 30 years from now, people will wonder why Santee got so expensive. Actually since they built the 52, that started to happen already. Tell your friends to take their 200k and buy a place that they feel is in the path of progress. 200k does not make the world your oyster, you still have to plan a little, but it can be done.

[Author]

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