What are your thoughts? Housing going UP or DOWN?

[sdrealtor]

I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jpinpb]Some of the boomer parents have lost money in their investments. Seems many investment vehicles were heavily in real estate. I would not assume the boomers’ parents are liquid and free and clear.

An example. My g/f’s mom passed away. They had some medical bills they had to cover. The dad took care of things. The dad recently passed away leaving the old house in Chula Vista to the three children. One is taking a loan on the house and paying off the two other siblings. Hardly going to retire off this.

Many of the boomers have multiple children and they will have to divide any proceeds.[/quote]

jpinpb, this is also what I am seeing in Chula Vista. The “greatest generation” couple here in which one or both are now deceased had an average of four children with 3-4 still living today. The typical assets are the long-time family home (which has taken a nosedive in value of late), a Rohr/General Dynamics/NASSCO or military/civilian retirement and social security (all of which terminate at death). If there are retirement funds over and above this which did not get eaten up by medical expenses incurred by the couple before they were eligible for Medicare, there is $200K or less remaining which is split 3-6 ways.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jpinpb]Some of the boomer parents have lost money in their investments. Seems many investment vehicles were heavily in real estate. I would not assume the boomers’ parents are liquid and free and clear.

An example. My g/f’s mom passed away. They had some medical bills they had to cover. The dad took care of things. The dad recently passed away leaving the old house in Chula Vista to the three children. One is taking a loan on the house and paying off the two other siblings. Hardly going to retire off this.

Many of the boomers have multiple children and they will have to divide any proceeds.[/quote]

jpinpb, this is also what I am seeing in Chula Vista. The “greatest generation” couple here in which one or both are now deceased had an average of four children with 3-4 still living today. The typical assets are the long-time family home (which has taken a nosedive in value of late), a Rohr/General Dynamics/NASSCO or military/civilian retirement and social security (all of which terminate at death). If there are retirement funds over and above this which did not get eaten up by medical expenses incurred by the couple before they were eligible for Medicare, there is $200K or less remaining which is split 3-6 ways.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jpinpb]Some of the boomer parents have lost money in their investments. Seems many investment vehicles were heavily in real estate. I would not assume the boomers’ parents are liquid and free and clear.

An example. My g/f’s mom passed away. They had some medical bills they had to cover. The dad took care of things. The dad recently passed away leaving the old house in Chula Vista to the three children. One is taking a loan on the house and paying off the two other siblings. Hardly going to retire off this.

Many of the boomers have multiple children and they will have to divide any proceeds.[/quote]

jpinpb, this is also what I am seeing in Chula Vista. The “greatest generation” couple here in which one or both are now deceased had an average of four children with 3-4 still living today. The typical assets are the long-time family home (which has taken a nosedive in value of late), a Rohr/General Dynamics/NASSCO or military/civilian retirement and social security (all of which terminate at death). If there are retirement funds over and above this which did not get eaten up by medical expenses incurred by the couple before they were eligible for Medicare, there is $200K or less remaining which is split 3-6 ways.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jpinpb]Some of the boomer parents have lost money in their investments. Seems many investment vehicles were heavily in real estate. I would not assume the boomers’ parents are liquid and free and clear.

An example. My g/f’s mom passed away. They had some medical bills they had to cover. The dad took care of things. The dad recently passed away leaving the old house in Chula Vista to the three children. One is taking a loan on the house and paying off the two other siblings. Hardly going to retire off this.

Many of the boomers have multiple children and they will have to divide any proceeds.[/quote]

jpinpb, this is also what I am seeing in Chula Vista. The “greatest generation” couple here in which one or both are now deceased had an average of four children with 3-4 still living today. The typical assets are the long-time family home (which has taken a nosedive in value of late), a Rohr/General Dynamics/NASSCO or military/civilian retirement and social security (all of which terminate at death). If there are retirement funds over and above this which did not get eaten up by medical expenses incurred by the couple before they were eligible for Medicare, there is $200K or less remaining which is split 3-6 ways.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jpinpb]Some of the boomer parents have lost money in their investments. Seems many investment vehicles were heavily in real estate. I would not assume the boomers’ parents are liquid and free and clear.

An example. My g/f’s mom passed away. They had some medical bills they had to cover. The dad took care of things. The dad recently passed away leaving the old house in Chula Vista to the three children. One is taking a loan on the house and paying off the two other siblings. Hardly going to retire off this.

Many of the boomers have multiple children and they will have to divide any proceeds.[/quote]

jpinpb, this is also what I am seeing in Chula Vista. The “greatest generation” couple here in which one or both are now deceased had an average of four children with 3-4 still living today. The typical assets are the long-time family home (which has taken a nosedive in value of late), a Rohr/General Dynamics/NASSCO or military/civilian retirement and social security (all of which terminate at death). If there are retirement funds over and above this which did not get eaten up by medical expenses incurred by the couple before they were eligible for Medicare, there is $200K or less remaining which is split 3-6 ways.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.[/quote]
Bummer for his kids he didn’t die this year… it was/is the estate tax free year. But last year was still pretty good… 3.5M excluded… unfortunately anything above that was taxed at a 45% rate. His kids are sitting pretty if the estate was somewhere around 5.7M (to get an estate tax of 1M). It’s a shame they have to sell some of the holdings to pay the taxes. But it sounds like there will be plenty left when it’s all over.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.[/quote]
Bummer for his kids he didn’t die this year… it was/is the estate tax free year. But last year was still pretty good… 3.5M excluded… unfortunately anything above that was taxed at a 45% rate. His kids are sitting pretty if the estate was somewhere around 5.7M (to get an estate tax of 1M). It’s a shame they have to sell some of the holdings to pay the taxes. But it sounds like there will be plenty left when it’s all over.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.[/quote]
Bummer for his kids he didn’t die this year… it was/is the estate tax free year. But last year was still pretty good… 3.5M excluded… unfortunately anything above that was taxed at a 45% rate. His kids are sitting pretty if the estate was somewhere around 5.7M (to get an estate tax of 1M). It’s a shame they have to sell some of the holdings to pay the taxes. But it sounds like there will be plenty left when it’s all over.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.[/quote]
Bummer for his kids he didn’t die this year… it was/is the estate tax free year. But last year was still pretty good… 3.5M excluded… unfortunately anything above that was taxed at a 45% rate. His kids are sitting pretty if the estate was somewhere around 5.7M (to get an estate tax of 1M). It’s a shame they have to sell some of the holdings to pay the taxes. But it sounds like there will be plenty left when it’s all over.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m not assuming all boomer parent’s are liquid and free and clear BUT some are. Some leave bills and some leave inheritances some of which are small and some are large. I know of some that left nothing but because of how I grew up I happen to know more that will leave plenty for children who are already very successful in their own rights. Its all over the board and I just want to make sure we look at things in balanced approach. Not everyone is leaving behind bills. I have a client right now whose father was a retired marine that liked to pick up beat up old houses and units around North Park. He was a tough as nails no nonsense guy that you would see at Home depot and think nothing of him. He just passed last year and left his two kids (in their 50’s) apartment complexes , land, houses, and 2 to 4 unit properties. We are working on selling some properties as he didnt have much other assets and owes the IRS about $1M in estate taxes. After that the kids will live off the rental income comfortably for the rest of their lives. Fr everyone of him there are a handful not like like him but thats not the point. The point is there are a good number of folks like him too.[/quote]
Bummer for his kids he didn’t die this year… it was/is the estate tax free year. But last year was still pretty good… 3.5M excluded… unfortunately anything above that was taxed at a 45% rate. His kids are sitting pretty if the estate was somewhere around 5.7M (to get an estate tax of 1M). It’s a shame they have to sell some of the holdings to pay the taxes. But it sounds like there will be plenty left when it’s all over.

[outtamojo]

[quote=flu][quote=Aecetia]I agree with flu. I think Southern California will come down and San Fransisco will probably go up, unless of course it falls off into the ocean. If that happens there will be many construction jobs for awhile, until the next big problem.[/quote]

My thought behind Bay Area is as follows: unlike in Southern CA (specifically in San Diego)…there is (and forever will be) a shortage of housing in Bay Area..There isn’t as much free open space to build new construction, and unless Bay Area stops being tech hub, which it isn’t in a foreseeable future, it’s always going to have a flow of people and businesses that go through the boom-bust-boom cycle.

When/if the government funded sectors shrink(defense companies/etc), folks are going to start trying to get back into the private sector/tech, and the job market isn’t nearly as bad in bay area as it is elsewhere right now. Imho, you can bet that defense companies are going to go through a cycle similar to the early 80ies, and a lot of these folks are going to be moving into other non-defense tech areas, like in the 80ies.

Bay Area also lures the younger, out of school crowd, because only in Bay Area can you hop around so much and gain a lot of experience…It’s not so flexible for new grads down here in S.D…And you are limiting your career by staying here as a new grad.. L.A. not much of a scene if you are into tech, unless you enjoy being a defense enginerd (which I haven’t met anyone who said they were…but rather they do it out of necessity)..

The VC scene down here in San Diego isn’t quite as active right now down here versu in the north right now either. Nor are VC’s really looking to invest into tech down here right now.

And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between
San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….[/quote]

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there. Yes, it is THE place for young techies – wish there was a Santana Row when I was a young bachelor : ) S.D. is not doomed in comparison however- eventually some Northerners tire of the waaay worse traffic, congestion, crime etc and S.D. is like serenity now for folks like us.I haven’t seen stuff like this http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/07/oscar_grant_riots_86_arrested.php that crops up in the Bay Area every few years happen yet in S.D. Sure you can avoid Oaktown but San Francisco, Berkeley and a few other cities there have the same powder keg type potential so the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )
Btw, I think housing prices will be flat in 10% range for a while.(yep, a cop out).

[outtamojo]

[quote=flu][quote=Aecetia]I agree with flu. I think Southern California will come down and San Fransisco will probably go up, unless of course it falls off into the ocean. If that happens there will be many construction jobs for awhile, until the next big problem.[/quote]

My thought behind Bay Area is as follows: unlike in Southern CA (specifically in San Diego)…there is (and forever will be) a shortage of housing in Bay Area..There isn’t as much free open space to build new construction, and unless Bay Area stops being tech hub, which it isn’t in a foreseeable future, it’s always going to have a flow of people and businesses that go through the boom-bust-boom cycle.

When/if the government funded sectors shrink(defense companies/etc), folks are going to start trying to get back into the private sector/tech, and the job market isn’t nearly as bad in bay area as it is elsewhere right now. Imho, you can bet that defense companies are going to go through a cycle similar to the early 80ies, and a lot of these folks are going to be moving into other non-defense tech areas, like in the 80ies.

Bay Area also lures the younger, out of school crowd, because only in Bay Area can you hop around so much and gain a lot of experience…It’s not so flexible for new grads down here in S.D…And you are limiting your career by staying here as a new grad.. L.A. not much of a scene if you are into tech, unless you enjoy being a defense enginerd (which I haven’t met anyone who said they were…but rather they do it out of necessity)..

The VC scene down here in San Diego isn’t quite as active right now down here versu in the north right now either. Nor are VC’s really looking to invest into tech down here right now.

And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between
San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….[/quote]

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there. Yes, it is THE place for young techies – wish there was a Santana Row when I was a young bachelor : ) S.D. is not doomed in comparison however- eventually some Northerners tire of the waaay worse traffic, congestion, crime etc and S.D. is like serenity now for folks like us.I haven’t seen stuff like this http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/07/oscar_grant_riots_86_arrested.php that crops up in the Bay Area every few years happen yet in S.D. Sure you can avoid Oaktown but San Francisco, Berkeley and a few other cities there have the same powder keg type potential so the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )
Btw, I think housing prices will be flat in 10% range for a while.(yep, a cop out).

[outtamojo]

[quote=flu][quote=Aecetia]I agree with flu. I think Southern California will come down and San Fransisco will probably go up, unless of course it falls off into the ocean. If that happens there will be many construction jobs for awhile, until the next big problem.[/quote]

My thought behind Bay Area is as follows: unlike in Southern CA (specifically in San Diego)…there is (and forever will be) a shortage of housing in Bay Area..There isn’t as much free open space to build new construction, and unless Bay Area stops being tech hub, which it isn’t in a foreseeable future, it’s always going to have a flow of people and businesses that go through the boom-bust-boom cycle.

When/if the government funded sectors shrink(defense companies/etc), folks are going to start trying to get back into the private sector/tech, and the job market isn’t nearly as bad in bay area as it is elsewhere right now. Imho, you can bet that defense companies are going to go through a cycle similar to the early 80ies, and a lot of these folks are going to be moving into other non-defense tech areas, like in the 80ies.

Bay Area also lures the younger, out of school crowd, because only in Bay Area can you hop around so much and gain a lot of experience…It’s not so flexible for new grads down here in S.D…And you are limiting your career by staying here as a new grad.. L.A. not much of a scene if you are into tech, unless you enjoy being a defense enginerd (which I haven’t met anyone who said they were…but rather they do it out of necessity)..

The VC scene down here in San Diego isn’t quite as active right now down here versu in the north right now either. Nor are VC’s really looking to invest into tech down here right now.

And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between
San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….[/quote]

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there. Yes, it is THE place for young techies – wish there was a Santana Row when I was a young bachelor : ) S.D. is not doomed in comparison however- eventually some Northerners tire of the waaay worse traffic, congestion, crime etc and S.D. is like serenity now for folks like us.I haven’t seen stuff like this http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/07/oscar_grant_riots_86_arrested.php that crops up in the Bay Area every few years happen yet in S.D. Sure you can avoid Oaktown but San Francisco, Berkeley and a few other cities there have the same powder keg type potential so the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )
Btw, I think housing prices will be flat in 10% range for a while.(yep, a cop out).

[outtamojo]

[quote=flu][quote=Aecetia]I agree with flu. I think Southern California will come down and San Fransisco will probably go up, unless of course it falls off into the ocean. If that happens there will be many construction jobs for awhile, until the next big problem.[/quote]

My thought behind Bay Area is as follows: unlike in Southern CA (specifically in San Diego)…there is (and forever will be) a shortage of housing in Bay Area..There isn’t as much free open space to build new construction, and unless Bay Area stops being tech hub, which it isn’t in a foreseeable future, it’s always going to have a flow of people and businesses that go through the boom-bust-boom cycle.

When/if the government funded sectors shrink(defense companies/etc), folks are going to start trying to get back into the private sector/tech, and the job market isn’t nearly as bad in bay area as it is elsewhere right now. Imho, you can bet that defense companies are going to go through a cycle similar to the early 80ies, and a lot of these folks are going to be moving into other non-defense tech areas, like in the 80ies.

Bay Area also lures the younger, out of school crowd, because only in Bay Area can you hop around so much and gain a lot of experience…It’s not so flexible for new grads down here in S.D…And you are limiting your career by staying here as a new grad.. L.A. not much of a scene if you are into tech, unless you enjoy being a defense enginerd (which I haven’t met anyone who said they were…but rather they do it out of necessity)..

The VC scene down here in San Diego isn’t quite as active right now down here versu in the north right now either. Nor are VC’s really looking to invest into tech down here right now.

And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between
San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….[/quote]

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there. Yes, it is THE place for young techies – wish there was a Santana Row when I was a young bachelor : ) S.D. is not doomed in comparison however- eventually some Northerners tire of the waaay worse traffic, congestion, crime etc and S.D. is like serenity now for folks like us.I haven’t seen stuff like this http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/07/oscar_grant_riots_86_arrested.php that crops up in the Bay Area every few years happen yet in S.D. Sure you can avoid Oaktown but San Francisco, Berkeley and a few other cities there have the same powder keg type potential so the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )
Btw, I think housing prices will be flat in 10% range for a while.(yep, a cop out).

[Author]

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