Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman][quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.[/quote]

Yes, yes, and yes. Can’t disagree with anything you’ve said.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Meadowmist was on the market once before and reduced price by 600K over 120 days. It came back on this year and reduced price about 500K over 120 days and sold. This is not an example of someone stubbornly sticking to a bubble price. It is someone aggressively trying to find the market that tried and failed once before. It is the antithesis of your and not a valid example at all.

The Babilona houses are different school district and a very unique market. You know that. Those homes sell to mostly retirees up there and/or as 2nd homes. Those are outliers relative to the area and great values to boot. On the 2nd one 21% above a 2001 price is a 2003 price. Its also a $2M house and that is different than the homes around $1M+

Calle Tres Vista is not $1M+ market it $2M+ market which is completely different. Its also the Amir Elgindy pennystock fraud perpatrator house with a very sordid past.

As for the house on Caminito Ricardo. Have you been there to see it? Its been in and out of escrow because it is a disaster. It needs a wrecking ball. The bill to fix that house starts around $200K and I dont think that would put a dent into the problems associated with it.

You are picking ugly ducklings and outliers to prove a point and it doesnt work. A house left to rot for the last 10 years like Caminito Ricardo should sell for less as far it is into disrepair. Massively overbuilt homes on Babilonia with horrible floorplans also.

Of course, nice homes priced at 2001 prices will sell quickly. You just havent shown me any valid ones because they sell for more than that.

As for the bet, i’ll take it but hell I buy those Margaritas for you now without a bet because I’m thristy and it will take at least a year IMO for it to go REO.[/quote]

How about this one:

Sold for $2.1MM in 2002 and is now listed (and pending) at $1.9MM.

Seriously, there are plenty of examples where houses in the $1MM++ are selling for near 2000/2001 prices. If all the “rich” people are moving here, why are these places not moving like the middle market? My guess is it’s because the mortgage financing is more difficult to get at those higher levels.

What percentage of SFH inventory in 92024 is priced at $1MM+? That market is NOT moving, even if there are onsies and twosies selling here and there (things are always selling in any market, but volume does matter). Our inventory is too top-heavy, and when these “sellers” decide to actually sell, it will start the next leg down, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Meadowmist was on the market once before and reduced price by 600K over 120 days. It came back on this year and reduced price about 500K over 120 days and sold. This is not an example of someone stubbornly sticking to a bubble price. It is someone aggressively trying to find the market that tried and failed once before. It is the antithesis of your and not a valid example at all.

The Babilona houses are different school district and a very unique market. You know that. Those homes sell to mostly retirees up there and/or as 2nd homes. Those are outliers relative to the area and great values to boot. On the 2nd one 21% above a 2001 price is a 2003 price. Its also a $2M house and that is different than the homes around $1M+

Calle Tres Vista is not $1M+ market it $2M+ market which is completely different. Its also the Amir Elgindy pennystock fraud perpatrator house with a very sordid past.

As for the house on Caminito Ricardo. Have you been there to see it? Its been in and out of escrow because it is a disaster. It needs a wrecking ball. The bill to fix that house starts around $200K and I dont think that would put a dent into the problems associated with it.

You are picking ugly ducklings and outliers to prove a point and it doesnt work. A house left to rot for the last 10 years like Caminito Ricardo should sell for less as far it is into disrepair. Massively overbuilt homes on Babilonia with horrible floorplans also.

Of course, nice homes priced at 2001 prices will sell quickly. You just havent shown me any valid ones because they sell for more than that.

As for the bet, i’ll take it but hell I buy those Margaritas for you now without a bet because I’m thristy and it will take at least a year IMO for it to go REO.[/quote]

How about this one:

Sold for $2.1MM in 2002 and is now listed (and pending) at $1.9MM.

Seriously, there are plenty of examples where houses in the $1MM++ are selling for near 2000/2001 prices. If all the “rich” people are moving here, why are these places not moving like the middle market? My guess is it’s because the mortgage financing is more difficult to get at those higher levels.

What percentage of SFH inventory in 92024 is priced at $1MM+? That market is NOT moving, even if there are onsies and twosies selling here and there (things are always selling in any market, but volume does matter). Our inventory is too top-heavy, and when these “sellers” decide to actually sell, it will start the next leg down, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Meadowmist was on the market once before and reduced price by 600K over 120 days. It came back on this year and reduced price about 500K over 120 days and sold. This is not an example of someone stubbornly sticking to a bubble price. It is someone aggressively trying to find the market that tried and failed once before. It is the antithesis of your and not a valid example at all.

The Babilona houses are different school district and a very unique market. You know that. Those homes sell to mostly retirees up there and/or as 2nd homes. Those are outliers relative to the area and great values to boot. On the 2nd one 21% above a 2001 price is a 2003 price. Its also a $2M house and that is different than the homes around $1M+

Calle Tres Vista is not $1M+ market it $2M+ market which is completely different. Its also the Amir Elgindy pennystock fraud perpatrator house with a very sordid past.

As for the house on Caminito Ricardo. Have you been there to see it? Its been in and out of escrow because it is a disaster. It needs a wrecking ball. The bill to fix that house starts around $200K and I dont think that would put a dent into the problems associated with it.

You are picking ugly ducklings and outliers to prove a point and it doesnt work. A house left to rot for the last 10 years like Caminito Ricardo should sell for less as far it is into disrepair. Massively overbuilt homes on Babilonia with horrible floorplans also.

Of course, nice homes priced at 2001 prices will sell quickly. You just havent shown me any valid ones because they sell for more than that.

As for the bet, i’ll take it but hell I buy those Margaritas for you now without a bet because I’m thristy and it will take at least a year IMO for it to go REO.[/quote]

How about this one:

Sold for $2.1MM in 2002 and is now listed (and pending) at $1.9MM.

Seriously, there are plenty of examples where houses in the $1MM++ are selling for near 2000/2001 prices. If all the “rich” people are moving here, why are these places not moving like the middle market? My guess is it’s because the mortgage financing is more difficult to get at those higher levels.

What percentage of SFH inventory in 92024 is priced at $1MM+? That market is NOT moving, even if there are onsies and twosies selling here and there (things are always selling in any market, but volume does matter). Our inventory is too top-heavy, and when these “sellers” decide to actually sell, it will start the next leg down, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Meadowmist was on the market once before and reduced price by 600K over 120 days. It came back on this year and reduced price about 500K over 120 days and sold. This is not an example of someone stubbornly sticking to a bubble price. It is someone aggressively trying to find the market that tried and failed once before. It is the antithesis of your and not a valid example at all.

The Babilona houses are different school district and a very unique market. You know that. Those homes sell to mostly retirees up there and/or as 2nd homes. Those are outliers relative to the area and great values to boot. On the 2nd one 21% above a 2001 price is a 2003 price. Its also a $2M house and that is different than the homes around $1M+

Calle Tres Vista is not $1M+ market it $2M+ market which is completely different. Its also the Amir Elgindy pennystock fraud perpatrator house with a very sordid past.

As for the house on Caminito Ricardo. Have you been there to see it? Its been in and out of escrow because it is a disaster. It needs a wrecking ball. The bill to fix that house starts around $200K and I dont think that would put a dent into the problems associated with it.

You are picking ugly ducklings and outliers to prove a point and it doesnt work. A house left to rot for the last 10 years like Caminito Ricardo should sell for less as far it is into disrepair. Massively overbuilt homes on Babilonia with horrible floorplans also.

Of course, nice homes priced at 2001 prices will sell quickly. You just havent shown me any valid ones because they sell for more than that.

As for the bet, i’ll take it but hell I buy those Margaritas for you now without a bet because I’m thristy and it will take at least a year IMO for it to go REO.[/quote]

How about this one:

Sold for $2.1MM in 2002 and is now listed (and pending) at $1.9MM.

Seriously, there are plenty of examples where houses in the $1MM++ are selling for near 2000/2001 prices. If all the “rich” people are moving here, why are these places not moving like the middle market? My guess is it’s because the mortgage financing is more difficult to get at those higher levels.

What percentage of SFH inventory in 92024 is priced at $1MM+? That market is NOT moving, even if there are onsies and twosies selling here and there (things are always selling in any market, but volume does matter). Our inventory is too top-heavy, and when these “sellers” decide to actually sell, it will start the next leg down, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Meadowmist was on the market once before and reduced price by 600K over 120 days. It came back on this year and reduced price about 500K over 120 days and sold. This is not an example of someone stubbornly sticking to a bubble price. It is someone aggressively trying to find the market that tried and failed once before. It is the antithesis of your and not a valid example at all.

The Babilona houses are different school district and a very unique market. You know that. Those homes sell to mostly retirees up there and/or as 2nd homes. Those are outliers relative to the area and great values to boot. On the 2nd one 21% above a 2001 price is a 2003 price. Its also a $2M house and that is different than the homes around $1M+

Calle Tres Vista is not $1M+ market it $2M+ market which is completely different. Its also the Amir Elgindy pennystock fraud perpatrator house with a very sordid past.

As for the house on Caminito Ricardo. Have you been there to see it? Its been in and out of escrow because it is a disaster. It needs a wrecking ball. The bill to fix that house starts around $200K and I dont think that would put a dent into the problems associated with it.

You are picking ugly ducklings and outliers to prove a point and it doesnt work. A house left to rot for the last 10 years like Caminito Ricardo should sell for less as far it is into disrepair. Massively overbuilt homes on Babilonia with horrible floorplans also.

Of course, nice homes priced at 2001 prices will sell quickly. You just havent shown me any valid ones because they sell for more than that.

As for the bet, i’ll take it but hell I buy those Margaritas for you now without a bet because I’m thristy and it will take at least a year IMO for it to go REO.[/quote]

How about this one:

Sold for $2.1MM in 2002 and is now listed (and pending) at $1.9MM.

Seriously, there are plenty of examples where houses in the $1MM++ are selling for near 2000/2001 prices. If all the “rich” people are moving here, why are these places not moving like the middle market? My guess is it’s because the mortgage financing is more difficult to get at those higher levels.

What percentage of SFH inventory in 92024 is priced at $1MM+? That market is NOT moving, even if there are onsies and twosies selling here and there (things are always selling in any market, but volume does matter). Our inventory is too top-heavy, and when these “sellers” decide to actually sell, it will start the next leg down, IMHO.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
As always I agree with most of what you say I just see things play out differently. Your statement that iti is the aggreagte that matters most is true when talking about the aggregate but you dont buy the aggregate you buy a single house. Finding a good one in place like this is harder than most places. RE is a sport around here for most people. Where I came from people buy a house and stay for ever in their neighborhood. If they need more space they add on because there arent huge differences in locations. Its basically flat and no one has an ocean view while most have a more than ample yard. Around here people who make or get more money often seize the opportunity to pick up and move around the corner for bigger yard, a newer house and/or a view.

I know you watch the market as close as you can and I know you are VERY well informed about all things RE. You just dont have access to the MLS which is a major advantage that allows me to watch and research things in ways you cant. If you did, I have no doubt that you would be able to see the things I do.

By the way, your welcome. I teed up that “be a part of it or be left behind” hoping someone would seize the “buy now or be priced out” analogy. Just me havin’ fun.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
As always I agree with most of what you say I just see things play out differently. Your statement that iti is the aggreagte that matters most is true when talking about the aggregate but you dont buy the aggregate you buy a single house. Finding a good one in place like this is harder than most places. RE is a sport around here for most people. Where I came from people buy a house and stay for ever in their neighborhood. If they need more space they add on because there arent huge differences in locations. Its basically flat and no one has an ocean view while most have a more than ample yard. Around here people who make or get more money often seize the opportunity to pick up and move around the corner for bigger yard, a newer house and/or a view.

I know you watch the market as close as you can and I know you are VERY well informed about all things RE. You just dont have access to the MLS which is a major advantage that allows me to watch and research things in ways you cant. If you did, I have no doubt that you would be able to see the things I do.

By the way, your welcome. I teed up that “be a part of it or be left behind” hoping someone would seize the “buy now or be priced out” analogy. Just me havin’ fun.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
As always I agree with most of what you say I just see things play out differently. Your statement that iti is the aggreagte that matters most is true when talking about the aggregate but you dont buy the aggregate you buy a single house. Finding a good one in place like this is harder than most places. RE is a sport around here for most people. Where I came from people buy a house and stay for ever in their neighborhood. If they need more space they add on because there arent huge differences in locations. Its basically flat and no one has an ocean view while most have a more than ample yard. Around here people who make or get more money often seize the opportunity to pick up and move around the corner for bigger yard, a newer house and/or a view.

I know you watch the market as close as you can and I know you are VERY well informed about all things RE. You just dont have access to the MLS which is a major advantage that allows me to watch and research things in ways you cant. If you did, I have no doubt that you would be able to see the things I do.

By the way, your welcome. I teed up that “be a part of it or be left behind” hoping someone would seize the “buy now or be priced out” analogy. Just me havin’ fun.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
As always I agree with most of what you say I just see things play out differently. Your statement that iti is the aggreagte that matters most is true when talking about the aggregate but you dont buy the aggregate you buy a single house. Finding a good one in place like this is harder than most places. RE is a sport around here for most people. Where I came from people buy a house and stay for ever in their neighborhood. If they need more space they add on because there arent huge differences in locations. Its basically flat and no one has an ocean view while most have a more than ample yard. Around here people who make or get more money often seize the opportunity to pick up and move around the corner for bigger yard, a newer house and/or a view.

I know you watch the market as close as you can and I know you are VERY well informed about all things RE. You just dont have access to the MLS which is a major advantage that allows me to watch and research things in ways you cant. If you did, I have no doubt that you would be able to see the things I do.

By the way, your welcome. I teed up that “be a part of it or be left behind” hoping someone would seize the “buy now or be priced out” analogy. Just me havin’ fun.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
As always I agree with most of what you say I just see things play out differently. Your statement that iti is the aggreagte that matters most is true when talking about the aggregate but you dont buy the aggregate you buy a single house. Finding a good one in place like this is harder than most places. RE is a sport around here for most people. Where I came from people buy a house and stay for ever in their neighborhood. If they need more space they add on because there arent huge differences in locations. Its basically flat and no one has an ocean view while most have a more than ample yard. Around here people who make or get more money often seize the opportunity to pick up and move around the corner for bigger yard, a newer house and/or a view.

I know you watch the market as close as you can and I know you are VERY well informed about all things RE. You just dont have access to the MLS which is a major advantage that allows me to watch and research things in ways you cant. If you did, I have no doubt that you would be able to see the things I do.

By the way, your welcome. I teed up that “be a part of it or be left behind” hoping someone would seize the “buy now or be priced out” analogy. Just me havin’ fun.

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
Good example on Levante. I’ll bet by now you are probably even agreeing me on my commnets back when you bought that you grabbed a great deal that would be difficult to replicate. Of course some folks may have paid similarly good prices but have you seen a single property that made you say WOW I wish I bought that one instead of the one I got? Probably not. Congrats and as I said when you got it, you are a BIG winner!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
Good example on Levante. I’ll bet by now you are probably even agreeing me on my commnets back when you bought that you grabbed a great deal that would be difficult to replicate. Of course some folks may have paid similarly good prices but have you seen a single property that made you say WOW I wish I bought that one instead of the one I got? Probably not. Congrats and as I said when you got it, you are a BIG winner!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
Good example on Levante. I’ll bet by now you are probably even agreeing me on my commnets back when you bought that you grabbed a great deal that would be difficult to replicate. Of course some folks may have paid similarly good prices but have you seen a single property that made you say WOW I wish I bought that one instead of the one I got? Probably not. Congrats and as I said when you got it, you are a BIG winner!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
Good example on Levante. I’ll bet by now you are probably even agreeing me on my commnets back when you bought that you grabbed a great deal that would be difficult to replicate. Of course some folks may have paid similarly good prices but have you seen a single property that made you say WOW I wish I bought that one instead of the one I got? Probably not. Congrats and as I said when you got it, you are a BIG winner!

[Author]

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