Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[Anonymous]

Prices in coastal SD have definitely outpaced inflation and income by a wide margin. Not even close.

sdr, based on your statistics, there was virtually no real income apprecation from 1999-2008 (assuming 3% average inflation).

We’ll see in the next 2-3 years how well coastal RE really holds up. We still have two more years of major ARM resets, meanwhile government housing subsidies are starting to wane. Let’s see how this plays out.

I say coastal prices will tank because there is not enough organic demand in the long run (i.e. legitimate income) combined with rising unemployment and potentially higher interest rates (can’t go much lower). Plus, in every previous SD real estate recession coastal RE got hammered. Just don’t buy the “this time its different argument” that is a stretch that is not based on fact, just on anecdotes and feeling.

[sdrealtor]

DZ
You are looking at median incomes and median prices. I dont beleive that prices of the nice upper middle class homes that now sell between 700 and 1.2M have not outpaced incomes by a WIDE margin. It is much closer than you think and my example proves it.

Bring on the re-sets. Everyone I know who has had a reset has seen their payments go down substantially with interest rates where they are. I never said it s different this time and prices have already gotten hammered by most measures. You are looking at percentage declines but I had this argument long ago on this site. Home prices change in dollars not percentages. Buyers dont say I’ll pay 10% more or less they say they will pay x dollars. When things boomed around me all homes went up roughly the same amount in dollars. The low end had much higher percentage gains while higher priced homes had much lower percentage gains. Thus all homes will likley decrease by the same amount of dollars around here but it would be saying its different this time to expect them to fall by the same percentage when they did not increase by the same percentage.

[sdrealtor]

DZ
You are looking at median incomes and median prices. I dont beleive that prices of the nice upper middle class homes that now sell between 700 and 1.2M have not outpaced incomes by a WIDE margin. It is much closer than you think and my example proves it.

Bring on the re-sets. Everyone I know who has had a reset has seen their payments go down substantially with interest rates where they are. I never said it s different this time and prices have already gotten hammered by most measures. You are looking at percentage declines but I had this argument long ago on this site. Home prices change in dollars not percentages. Buyers dont say I’ll pay 10% more or less they say they will pay x dollars. When things boomed around me all homes went up roughly the same amount in dollars. The low end had much higher percentage gains while higher priced homes had much lower percentage gains. Thus all homes will likley decrease by the same amount of dollars around here but it would be saying its different this time to expect them to fall by the same percentage when they did not increase by the same percentage.

[sdrealtor]

DZ
You are looking at median incomes and median prices. I dont beleive that prices of the nice upper middle class homes that now sell between 700 and 1.2M have not outpaced incomes by a WIDE margin. It is much closer than you think and my example proves it.

Bring on the re-sets. Everyone I know who has had a reset has seen their payments go down substantially with interest rates where they are. I never said it s different this time and prices have already gotten hammered by most measures. You are looking at percentage declines but I had this argument long ago on this site. Home prices change in dollars not percentages. Buyers dont say I’ll pay 10% more or less they say they will pay x dollars. When things boomed around me all homes went up roughly the same amount in dollars. The low end had much higher percentage gains while higher priced homes had much lower percentage gains. Thus all homes will likley decrease by the same amount of dollars around here but it would be saying its different this time to expect them to fall by the same percentage when they did not increase by the same percentage.

[sdrealtor]

DZ
You are looking at median incomes and median prices. I dont beleive that prices of the nice upper middle class homes that now sell between 700 and 1.2M have not outpaced incomes by a WIDE margin. It is much closer than you think and my example proves it.

Bring on the re-sets. Everyone I know who has had a reset has seen their payments go down substantially with interest rates where they are. I never said it s different this time and prices have already gotten hammered by most measures. You are looking at percentage declines but I had this argument long ago on this site. Home prices change in dollars not percentages. Buyers dont say I’ll pay 10% more or less they say they will pay x dollars. When things boomed around me all homes went up roughly the same amount in dollars. The low end had much higher percentage gains while higher priced homes had much lower percentage gains. Thus all homes will likley decrease by the same amount of dollars around here but it would be saying its different this time to expect them to fall by the same percentage when they did not increase by the same percentage.

[sdrealtor]

DZ
You are looking at median incomes and median prices. I dont beleive that prices of the nice upper middle class homes that now sell between 700 and 1.2M have not outpaced incomes by a WIDE margin. It is much closer than you think and my example proves it.

Bring on the re-sets. Everyone I know who has had a reset has seen their payments go down substantially with interest rates where they are. I never said it s different this time and prices have already gotten hammered by most measures. You are looking at percentage declines but I had this argument long ago on this site. Home prices change in dollars not percentages. Buyers dont say I’ll pay 10% more or less they say they will pay x dollars. When things boomed around me all homes went up roughly the same amount in dollars. The low end had much higher percentage gains while higher priced homes had much lower percentage gains. Thus all homes will likley decrease by the same amount of dollars around here but it would be saying its different this time to expect them to fall by the same percentage when they did not increase by the same percentage.

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE on the house this thread started on. My clients are out so I’ll post the address. It is 802 Stratford Knoll in 92024. We just got a counter back and they got so many offers they arent even bothering to counter anyone who offered less than $1.1M which several did.

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE on the house this thread started on. My clients are out so I’ll post the address. It is 802 Stratford Knoll in 92024. We just got a counter back and they got so many offers they arent even bothering to counter anyone who offered less than $1.1M which several did.

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE on the house this thread started on. My clients are out so I’ll post the address. It is 802 Stratford Knoll in 92024. We just got a counter back and they got so many offers they arent even bothering to counter anyone who offered less than $1.1M which several did.

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE on the house this thread started on. My clients are out so I’ll post the address. It is 802 Stratford Knoll in 92024. We just got a counter back and they got so many offers they arent even bothering to counter anyone who offered less than $1.1M which several did.

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE on the house this thread started on. My clients are out so I’ll post the address. It is 802 Stratford Knoll in 92024. We just got a counter back and they got so many offers they arent even bothering to counter anyone who offered less than $1.1M which several did.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

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