Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]

Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.

Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.

I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.

[permabear]

[quote=sdrealtor]I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

What do you mean by “appropriate supply”? Do you mean more appropriately priced homes in terms of quality vs price? Or just more homes altogether?

I’m personally looking primarily in SR, RSF, LJ, and Solana, and I keep seeing prices drop for overpriced gut jobs. One just dropped 800k from 1.99 to 1.19 but it was right on the 52 and needed massive remodeling.

[permabear]

[quote=sdrealtor]I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

What do you mean by “appropriate supply”? Do you mean more appropriately priced homes in terms of quality vs price? Or just more homes altogether?

I’m personally looking primarily in SR, RSF, LJ, and Solana, and I keep seeing prices drop for overpriced gut jobs. One just dropped 800k from 1.99 to 1.19 but it was right on the 52 and needed massive remodeling.

[permabear]

[quote=sdrealtor]I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

What do you mean by “appropriate supply”? Do you mean more appropriately priced homes in terms of quality vs price? Or just more homes altogether?

I’m personally looking primarily in SR, RSF, LJ, and Solana, and I keep seeing prices drop for overpriced gut jobs. One just dropped 800k from 1.99 to 1.19 but it was right on the 52 and needed massive remodeling.

[permabear]

[quote=sdrealtor]I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

What do you mean by “appropriate supply”? Do you mean more appropriately priced homes in terms of quality vs price? Or just more homes altogether?

I’m personally looking primarily in SR, RSF, LJ, and Solana, and I keep seeing prices drop for overpriced gut jobs. One just dropped 800k from 1.99 to 1.19 but it was right on the 52 and needed massive remodeling.

[permabear]

[quote=sdrealtor]I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

What do you mean by “appropriate supply”? Do you mean more appropriately priced homes in terms of quality vs price? Or just more homes altogether?

I’m personally looking primarily in SR, RSF, LJ, and Solana, and I keep seeing prices drop for overpriced gut jobs. One just dropped 800k from 1.99 to 1.19 but it was right on the 52 and needed massive remodeling.

[pemeliza]

“You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! ;)”

We are very happy with our purchase. We ended finding something in Mission Hills with the kind of privacy and lot size that you would expect in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix. We didn’t get much of a house but it is a retirement home so we really didn’t need much.

As you know, there are many wonderful neighborhoods in San Diego County and that one up near Obelisco is an area we really liked probably starting back in the late 90’s. You are correct in that we would have been very happy in the neighborhood and I think if you can get past the high school issue that may well be a great fit for you and your family as well. Honestly, I think the area has lost some of its cache after they dumped La Costa Ridge and La Costa Greens right next to it which increased the traffic and congestion. That may be another reason why we are seeing cracks in the property values.

Another area we really like in the county is Mt. Helix. I know you guys want to be in North County, but when I drive up onto Mt. Helix I am reminded of why I love San Diego … beautiful custom estate homes on large lots, all unique and well maintained, and most with great views. That location is hard to beat as well but again you have to deal with the schools and being close to your employment.

Anyway, I honestly thought that we were going to end up either in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix and it was just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity.

Then along came the place in Mission Hills and it seemed like it satisfied our strong desire for privacy and lot size but came with the added bonus of being both coastal and close to downtown, Balboa Park, Coronado, etc.

CAR, it does sound like from some of your posts that you are also looking at quite a few parts of the county. I personally think this is a great idea because it really does give you a lot more options.

[pemeliza]

“You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! ;)”

We are very happy with our purchase. We ended finding something in Mission Hills with the kind of privacy and lot size that you would expect in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix. We didn’t get much of a house but it is a retirement home so we really didn’t need much.

As you know, there are many wonderful neighborhoods in San Diego County and that one up near Obelisco is an area we really liked probably starting back in the late 90’s. You are correct in that we would have been very happy in the neighborhood and I think if you can get past the high school issue that may well be a great fit for you and your family as well. Honestly, I think the area has lost some of its cache after they dumped La Costa Ridge and La Costa Greens right next to it which increased the traffic and congestion. That may be another reason why we are seeing cracks in the property values.

Another area we really like in the county is Mt. Helix. I know you guys want to be in North County, but when I drive up onto Mt. Helix I am reminded of why I love San Diego … beautiful custom estate homes on large lots, all unique and well maintained, and most with great views. That location is hard to beat as well but again you have to deal with the schools and being close to your employment.

Anyway, I honestly thought that we were going to end up either in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix and it was just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity.

Then along came the place in Mission Hills and it seemed like it satisfied our strong desire for privacy and lot size but came with the added bonus of being both coastal and close to downtown, Balboa Park, Coronado, etc.

CAR, it does sound like from some of your posts that you are also looking at quite a few parts of the county. I personally think this is a great idea because it really does give you a lot more options.

[pemeliza]

“You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! ;)”

We are very happy with our purchase. We ended finding something in Mission Hills with the kind of privacy and lot size that you would expect in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix. We didn’t get much of a house but it is a retirement home so we really didn’t need much.

As you know, there are many wonderful neighborhoods in San Diego County and that one up near Obelisco is an area we really liked probably starting back in the late 90’s. You are correct in that we would have been very happy in the neighborhood and I think if you can get past the high school issue that may well be a great fit for you and your family as well. Honestly, I think the area has lost some of its cache after they dumped La Costa Ridge and La Costa Greens right next to it which increased the traffic and congestion. That may be another reason why we are seeing cracks in the property values.

Another area we really like in the county is Mt. Helix. I know you guys want to be in North County, but when I drive up onto Mt. Helix I am reminded of why I love San Diego … beautiful custom estate homes on large lots, all unique and well maintained, and most with great views. That location is hard to beat as well but again you have to deal with the schools and being close to your employment.

Anyway, I honestly thought that we were going to end up either in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix and it was just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity.

Then along came the place in Mission Hills and it seemed like it satisfied our strong desire for privacy and lot size but came with the added bonus of being both coastal and close to downtown, Balboa Park, Coronado, etc.

CAR, it does sound like from some of your posts that you are also looking at quite a few parts of the county. I personally think this is a great idea because it really does give you a lot more options.

[pemeliza]

“You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! ;)”

We are very happy with our purchase. We ended finding something in Mission Hills with the kind of privacy and lot size that you would expect in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix. We didn’t get much of a house but it is a retirement home so we really didn’t need much.

As you know, there are many wonderful neighborhoods in San Diego County and that one up near Obelisco is an area we really liked probably starting back in the late 90’s. You are correct in that we would have been very happy in the neighborhood and I think if you can get past the high school issue that may well be a great fit for you and your family as well. Honestly, I think the area has lost some of its cache after they dumped La Costa Ridge and La Costa Greens right next to it which increased the traffic and congestion. That may be another reason why we are seeing cracks in the property values.

Another area we really like in the county is Mt. Helix. I know you guys want to be in North County, but when I drive up onto Mt. Helix I am reminded of why I love San Diego … beautiful custom estate homes on large lots, all unique and well maintained, and most with great views. That location is hard to beat as well but again you have to deal with the schools and being close to your employment.

Anyway, I honestly thought that we were going to end up either in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix and it was just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity.

Then along came the place in Mission Hills and it seemed like it satisfied our strong desire for privacy and lot size but came with the added bonus of being both coastal and close to downtown, Balboa Park, Coronado, etc.

CAR, it does sound like from some of your posts that you are also looking at quite a few parts of the county. I personally think this is a great idea because it really does give you a lot more options.

[pemeliza]

“You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! ;)”

We are very happy with our purchase. We ended finding something in Mission Hills with the kind of privacy and lot size that you would expect in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix. We didn’t get much of a house but it is a retirement home so we really didn’t need much.

As you know, there are many wonderful neighborhoods in San Diego County and that one up near Obelisco is an area we really liked probably starting back in the late 90’s. You are correct in that we would have been very happy in the neighborhood and I think if you can get past the high school issue that may well be a great fit for you and your family as well. Honestly, I think the area has lost some of its cache after they dumped La Costa Ridge and La Costa Greens right next to it which increased the traffic and congestion. That may be another reason why we are seeing cracks in the property values.

Another area we really like in the county is Mt. Helix. I know you guys want to be in North County, but when I drive up onto Mt. Helix I am reminded of why I love San Diego … beautiful custom estate homes on large lots, all unique and well maintained, and most with great views. That location is hard to beat as well but again you have to deal with the schools and being close to your employment.

Anyway, I honestly thought that we were going to end up either in La Costa Estates or Mt. Helix and it was just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity.

Then along came the place in Mission Hills and it seemed like it satisfied our strong desire for privacy and lot size but came with the added bonus of being both coastal and close to downtown, Balboa Park, Coronado, etc.

CAR, it does sound like from some of your posts that you are also looking at quite a few parts of the county. I personally think this is a great idea because it really does give you a lot more options.

[sdrealtor]

permabear
By appropriate supply I mean nice homes (not overlooking 52), between 2500 and 4000sq ft, in move in or close to move in condition, priced at current market levels by sellers with equity.

There are buyers combing the streets around here looking for homes they want to buy. Finding ones they are interested in buying is tough enough, then they have to deal with 3rd parties (lenders, asset managers etc.) and long periods of time to get a decision in many cases. If they could just find a house they liked, write an offer and close 30 days later the sales numbers would be alot higher.

Admittedly the markets you referenced RSF, LJ and SB in particular are higher priced for home slike that and more often than not older homes in need of major remodelling.

[sdrealtor]

permabear
By appropriate supply I mean nice homes (not overlooking 52), between 2500 and 4000sq ft, in move in or close to move in condition, priced at current market levels by sellers with equity.

There are buyers combing the streets around here looking for homes they want to buy. Finding ones they are interested in buying is tough enough, then they have to deal with 3rd parties (lenders, asset managers etc.) and long periods of time to get a decision in many cases. If they could just find a house they liked, write an offer and close 30 days later the sales numbers would be alot higher.

Admittedly the markets you referenced RSF, LJ and SB in particular are higher priced for home slike that and more often than not older homes in need of major remodelling.

[sdrealtor]

permabear
By appropriate supply I mean nice homes (not overlooking 52), between 2500 and 4000sq ft, in move in or close to move in condition, priced at current market levels by sellers with equity.

There are buyers combing the streets around here looking for homes they want to buy. Finding ones they are interested in buying is tough enough, then they have to deal with 3rd parties (lenders, asset managers etc.) and long periods of time to get a decision in many cases. If they could just find a house they liked, write an offer and close 30 days later the sales numbers would be alot higher.

Admittedly the markets you referenced RSF, LJ and SB in particular are higher priced for home slike that and more often than not older homes in need of major remodelling.

[sdrealtor]

permabear
By appropriate supply I mean nice homes (not overlooking 52), between 2500 and 4000sq ft, in move in or close to move in condition, priced at current market levels by sellers with equity.

There are buyers combing the streets around here looking for homes they want to buy. Finding ones they are interested in buying is tough enough, then they have to deal with 3rd parties (lenders, asset managers etc.) and long periods of time to get a decision in many cases. If they could just find a house they liked, write an offer and close 30 days later the sales numbers would be alot higher.

Admittedly the markets you referenced RSF, LJ and SB in particular are higher priced for home slike that and more often than not older homes in need of major remodelling.

[Author]

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