Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]Even though you didn’t mention the listing I knew exactly which one you were talking about immmediately.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100019830-7143_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009

I tell you what CAR, the short sale on Obelisco Pl that went low seems to have crushed this area of La Costa:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2637-Obelisco-Pl-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16656942_zpid/

This shows what a couple of distressed properties can do to a local submarket. That sale price of 1M is unquestionably a 2000 price. I was looking in the area during that time. The power line and school district hurt the value but that was a great deal IMHO. That is my favorite part of La Costa because as you said those are true custom ocean view estates.

We put a strong bid on this REO but got outbid by a wide margin:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2618-Obelisco-Pl-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16656946_zpid/

Looking at the direction that neighborhood is headed, it is a good thing we didn’t get the house.

Save your ammo CAR. Things seem to be going your way.[/quote]

Yes, that’s the one. Thanks for the link, Pemeliza. 🙂

The one on Obelisco would have been a good deal for you. It’s a very nice area, with some of the most gorgeous lagoon and ocean views in North County, IMHO.

You seem to be happy with your purchase, though, right? Did you buy a comparable house? In a way, I’m envious of your position; at least you are done! 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR the problem is your are seeing from cyberspace and not the ground. You never saw it. That area is a completely different animal then our area. I showed that house and it was hideous IMO. It needed several hundred thousand dollars and it still was a horrendous floorplan. The living area was upstairs and the bedrooms were downstairs dark, smelly and cavelike. It had no yard, powerlines and is a neighborhood favored by retirees and 2nd home owners. Even at $1M to make it nice will require minimum of $300K. Even then it will be a poorly designed lumbering elephant.

Functionally obsolete, poorly designed, poorly located homes like that are completely dettached from the mainstream market in NCC. If you want one you can get a deal on it but dont expect it to have any impact on Olivenhain.

I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

sdr,

You’d be surprised at how much time we spend looking at properties (and have done so for many, many, many years). We know this area well, and I would disagree strongly with your assertion that large custome homes on large lots with no HOAs or Mellos Roos with some of the best ocean/lagoon views in North County are somehow inferior to tract homes on small lots. Just not buying it.

BTW, this trend is not only alive and well in this particular area, you can see the same trend in RSF, O’hain, La Jolla, etc. The market is VERY top-heavy. IMHO, this will put pressure on everything below it.

I’ve never said that there aren’t any rich people anywhere in San Diego, just that there aren’t nearly enough to prop up all the prices in all the neighborhoods where people think they are sitting on $1MM++ lottery tickets.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR the problem is your are seeing from cyberspace and not the ground. You never saw it. That area is a completely different animal then our area. I showed that house and it was hideous IMO. It needed several hundred thousand dollars and it still was a horrendous floorplan. The living area was upstairs and the bedrooms were downstairs dark, smelly and cavelike. It had no yard, powerlines and is a neighborhood favored by retirees and 2nd home owners. Even at $1M to make it nice will require minimum of $300K. Even then it will be a poorly designed lumbering elephant.

Functionally obsolete, poorly designed, poorly located homes like that are completely dettached from the mainstream market in NCC. If you want one you can get a deal on it but dont expect it to have any impact on Olivenhain.

I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

sdr,

You’d be surprised at how much time we spend looking at properties (and have done so for many, many, many years). We know this area well, and I would disagree strongly with your assertion that large custome homes on large lots with no HOAs or Mellos Roos with some of the best ocean/lagoon views in North County are somehow inferior to tract homes on small lots. Just not buying it.

BTW, this trend is not only alive and well in this particular area, you can see the same trend in RSF, O’hain, La Jolla, etc. The market is VERY top-heavy. IMHO, this will put pressure on everything below it.

I’ve never said that there aren’t any rich people anywhere in San Diego, just that there aren’t nearly enough to prop up all the prices in all the neighborhoods where people think they are sitting on $1MM++ lottery tickets.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR the problem is your are seeing from cyberspace and not the ground. You never saw it. That area is a completely different animal then our area. I showed that house and it was hideous IMO. It needed several hundred thousand dollars and it still was a horrendous floorplan. The living area was upstairs and the bedrooms were downstairs dark, smelly and cavelike. It had no yard, powerlines and is a neighborhood favored by retirees and 2nd home owners. Even at $1M to make it nice will require minimum of $300K. Even then it will be a poorly designed lumbering elephant.

Functionally obsolete, poorly designed, poorly located homes like that are completely dettached from the mainstream market in NCC. If you want one you can get a deal on it but dont expect it to have any impact on Olivenhain.

I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

sdr,

You’d be surprised at how much time we spend looking at properties (and have done so for many, many, many years). We know this area well, and I would disagree strongly with your assertion that large custome homes on large lots with no HOAs or Mellos Roos with some of the best ocean/lagoon views in North County are somehow inferior to tract homes on small lots. Just not buying it.

BTW, this trend is not only alive and well in this particular area, you can see the same trend in RSF, O’hain, La Jolla, etc. The market is VERY top-heavy. IMHO, this will put pressure on everything below it.

I’ve never said that there aren’t any rich people anywhere in San Diego, just that there aren’t nearly enough to prop up all the prices in all the neighborhoods where people think they are sitting on $1MM++ lottery tickets.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR the problem is your are seeing from cyberspace and not the ground. You never saw it. That area is a completely different animal then our area. I showed that house and it was hideous IMO. It needed several hundred thousand dollars and it still was a horrendous floorplan. The living area was upstairs and the bedrooms were downstairs dark, smelly and cavelike. It had no yard, powerlines and is a neighborhood favored by retirees and 2nd home owners. Even at $1M to make it nice will require minimum of $300K. Even then it will be a poorly designed lumbering elephant.

Functionally obsolete, poorly designed, poorly located homes like that are completely dettached from the mainstream market in NCC. If you want one you can get a deal on it but dont expect it to have any impact on Olivenhain.

I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

sdr,

You’d be surprised at how much time we spend looking at properties (and have done so for many, many, many years). We know this area well, and I would disagree strongly with your assertion that large custome homes on large lots with no HOAs or Mellos Roos with some of the best ocean/lagoon views in North County are somehow inferior to tract homes on small lots. Just not buying it.

BTW, this trend is not only alive and well in this particular area, you can see the same trend in RSF, O’hain, La Jolla, etc. The market is VERY top-heavy. IMHO, this will put pressure on everything below it.

I’ve never said that there aren’t any rich people anywhere in San Diego, just that there aren’t nearly enough to prop up all the prices in all the neighborhoods where people think they are sitting on $1MM++ lottery tickets.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR the problem is your are seeing from cyberspace and not the ground. You never saw it. That area is a completely different animal then our area. I showed that house and it was hideous IMO. It needed several hundred thousand dollars and it still was a horrendous floorplan. The living area was upstairs and the bedrooms were downstairs dark, smelly and cavelike. It had no yard, powerlines and is a neighborhood favored by retirees and 2nd home owners. Even at $1M to make it nice will require minimum of $300K. Even then it will be a poorly designed lumbering elephant.

Functionally obsolete, poorly designed, poorly located homes like that are completely dettached from the mainstream market in NCC. If you want one you can get a deal on it but dont expect it to have any impact on Olivenhain.

I just ran some numbers and in the combined 92024, 92009 and 92011 on average a house sells every single day between 800K and 1.2M. Looking at pendings and contingents shows that number could be 2 or more a day if there was appropriate supply.[/quote]

sdr,

You’d be surprised at how much time we spend looking at properties (and have done so for many, many, many years). We know this area well, and I would disagree strongly with your assertion that large custome homes on large lots with no HOAs or Mellos Roos with some of the best ocean/lagoon views in North County are somehow inferior to tract homes on small lots. Just not buying it.

BTW, this trend is not only alive and well in this particular area, you can see the same trend in RSF, O’hain, La Jolla, etc. The market is VERY top-heavy. IMHO, this will put pressure on everything below it.

I’ve never said that there aren’t any rich people anywhere in San Diego, just that there aren’t nearly enough to prop up all the prices in all the neighborhoods where people think they are sitting on $1MM++ lottery tickets.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]

Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.

Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.

I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]

Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.

Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.

I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]

Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.

Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.

I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.

I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.

Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]

Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.

Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.

I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.

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