Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]I think you hit the target demographic for these purchases. However, I still am skeptical about how large the pool of people really is in this demographic.

Moreover, the situation is not nearly as good as your example. For one, good luck getting 4.5% on a jumbo loand. Second, you have to factor in property taxes (huge), PMI and possibly Mello Roos or HOA. Finally, the biggest risk is that real estate prices tank some more and you just traded in your safe but low interest investment income into a depreciating asset.

I for one am in that demographic you mention. I rent and am sitting on significant “house money”. I am more than content to keep renting in this environment.[/quote]

Well put, deadzone. I’m with you on this and your other posts above.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Alot more than you think. I was blown away by the interest level. I figured 3 to 5 offers. They must have gotten 20 in a weekend. I figure most were at, above or close to asking price. I also figure most if not all were taking loans on $697K or less telling me there are a sh*tload of people walking around with $300K or more looking for a nice house and this one was nice but hardly spectacular or a spectacular deal.[/quote]

This isn’t the least bit surprising to me. With the Fed trashing the dollar, and with interest rates effectively at zero, it has been exceedingly painful to be sitting in cash — for most of this decade, actually. Investors are forced either to take great risks with stock, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., OR they can buy a house if they need one. Many are deciding to throw in the towel and buy. This is exactly what the Fed/govt has been trying to do — force savers into risky asset purchases in order to keep prices artificially inflated…just like during the runup to the “credit crisis.”

Will they ever learn????[/quote]

Or quite possibly there are lots of people looking for a house like that who can easily afford it. My clients can and not a single point you made applies to them.[/quote]

sdr,

I can assure you that someone sitting on a significant amount of money is more willing to part with it in this “zero rate” environment than in a higher-rate environment. We also know enough people with money who have all expressed their frustration with savings and investment returns, and have decided to throw in the towel and overpay for a house because they “just wanted to get it over with.”

It is this mentality (money is a “bad investment”) that the Fed/govt is counting on to keep asset prices inflated. Nobody really knows how long this can last.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Alot more than you think. I was blown away by the interest level. I figured 3 to 5 offers. They must have gotten 20 in a weekend. I figure most were at, above or close to asking price. I also figure most if not all were taking loans on $697K or less telling me there are a sh*tload of people walking around with $300K or more looking for a nice house and this one was nice but hardly spectacular or a spectacular deal.[/quote]

This isn’t the least bit surprising to me. With the Fed trashing the dollar, and with interest rates effectively at zero, it has been exceedingly painful to be sitting in cash — for most of this decade, actually. Investors are forced either to take great risks with stock, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., OR they can buy a house if they need one. Many are deciding to throw in the towel and buy. This is exactly what the Fed/govt has been trying to do — force savers into risky asset purchases in order to keep prices artificially inflated…just like during the runup to the “credit crisis.”

Will they ever learn????[/quote]

Or quite possibly there are lots of people looking for a house like that who can easily afford it. My clients can and not a single point you made applies to them.[/quote]

sdr,

I can assure you that someone sitting on a significant amount of money is more willing to part with it in this “zero rate” environment than in a higher-rate environment. We also know enough people with money who have all expressed their frustration with savings and investment returns, and have decided to throw in the towel and overpay for a house because they “just wanted to get it over with.”

It is this mentality (money is a “bad investment”) that the Fed/govt is counting on to keep asset prices inflated. Nobody really knows how long this can last.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Alot more than you think. I was blown away by the interest level. I figured 3 to 5 offers. They must have gotten 20 in a weekend. I figure most were at, above or close to asking price. I also figure most if not all were taking loans on $697K or less telling me there are a sh*tload of people walking around with $300K or more looking for a nice house and this one was nice but hardly spectacular or a spectacular deal.[/quote]

This isn’t the least bit surprising to me. With the Fed trashing the dollar, and with interest rates effectively at zero, it has been exceedingly painful to be sitting in cash — for most of this decade, actually. Investors are forced either to take great risks with stock, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., OR they can buy a house if they need one. Many are deciding to throw in the towel and buy. This is exactly what the Fed/govt has been trying to do — force savers into risky asset purchases in order to keep prices artificially inflated…just like during the runup to the “credit crisis.”

Will they ever learn????[/quote]

Or quite possibly there are lots of people looking for a house like that who can easily afford it. My clients can and not a single point you made applies to them.[/quote]

sdr,

I can assure you that someone sitting on a significant amount of money is more willing to part with it in this “zero rate” environment than in a higher-rate environment. We also know enough people with money who have all expressed their frustration with savings and investment returns, and have decided to throw in the towel and overpay for a house because they “just wanted to get it over with.”

It is this mentality (money is a “bad investment”) that the Fed/govt is counting on to keep asset prices inflated. Nobody really knows how long this can last.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Alot more than you think. I was blown away by the interest level. I figured 3 to 5 offers. They must have gotten 20 in a weekend. I figure most were at, above or close to asking price. I also figure most if not all were taking loans on $697K or less telling me there are a sh*tload of people walking around with $300K or more looking for a nice house and this one was nice but hardly spectacular or a spectacular deal.[/quote]

This isn’t the least bit surprising to me. With the Fed trashing the dollar, and with interest rates effectively at zero, it has been exceedingly painful to be sitting in cash — for most of this decade, actually. Investors are forced either to take great risks with stock, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., OR they can buy a house if they need one. Many are deciding to throw in the towel and buy. This is exactly what the Fed/govt has been trying to do — force savers into risky asset purchases in order to keep prices artificially inflated…just like during the runup to the “credit crisis.”

Will they ever learn????[/quote]

Or quite possibly there are lots of people looking for a house like that who can easily afford it. My clients can and not a single point you made applies to them.[/quote]

sdr,

I can assure you that someone sitting on a significant amount of money is more willing to part with it in this “zero rate” environment than in a higher-rate environment. We also know enough people with money who have all expressed their frustration with savings and investment returns, and have decided to throw in the towel and overpay for a house because they “just wanted to get it over with.”

It is this mentality (money is a “bad investment”) that the Fed/govt is counting on to keep asset prices inflated. Nobody really knows how long this can last.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Alot more than you think. I was blown away by the interest level. I figured 3 to 5 offers. They must have gotten 20 in a weekend. I figure most were at, above or close to asking price. I also figure most if not all were taking loans on $697K or less telling me there are a sh*tload of people walking around with $300K or more looking for a nice house and this one was nice but hardly spectacular or a spectacular deal.[/quote]

This isn’t the least bit surprising to me. With the Fed trashing the dollar, and with interest rates effectively at zero, it has been exceedingly painful to be sitting in cash — for most of this decade, actually. Investors are forced either to take great risks with stock, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., OR they can buy a house if they need one. Many are deciding to throw in the towel and buy. This is exactly what the Fed/govt has been trying to do — force savers into risky asset purchases in order to keep prices artificially inflated…just like during the runup to the “credit crisis.”

Will they ever learn????[/quote]

Or quite possibly there are lots of people looking for a house like that who can easily afford it. My clients can and not a single point you made applies to them.[/quote]

sdr,

I can assure you that someone sitting on a significant amount of money is more willing to part with it in this “zero rate” environment than in a higher-rate environment. We also know enough people with money who have all expressed their frustration with savings and investment returns, and have decided to throw in the towel and overpay for a house because they “just wanted to get it over with.”

It is this mentality (money is a “bad investment”) that the Fed/govt is counting on to keep asset prices inflated. Nobody really knows how long this can last.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
The one you pointed out is a short sale. They couldnt get it done at $1.3M becuase buyers in that range dont want to deal with the uncertainty of a short sale when they dont have to. They dropped the price about 300K tis week as part of that desparate attempt. This is a desparate attempt to get a short sale and in no way relfective of market prices. What you see is not always reality and I dont see homes in $1M+ range around 2000/2001 prices around here. Please provide examples.

The comp for the Camino De Orchidia house closed about 1 month ago at more than $1.5M. If the bank accepts $1M for this they are morons or quite possibly someone is writing a big check to satisfy junior liens out side of escrow that while part of the sales price wont be reflected as such. Personally, I’d place a side bet for a Juanita’s carnita burrito that it turns into an REO.[/quote]

Okay, look at the one on Meadowmist that is pending (that one’s been on and off the market over the past few years — this, in regards to the other thread). Also, there have been a few pendings and closed sales in the custom areas of older LC (with ocean views to boot, IIRC) that have sold for very close to 2000/2001 prices (maybe 10% over those levels, if that, which is nothing compared to the mid-level appreciation).
————

There’s this one for that sold for $575 in 1993, and $579K in 1996…now listed for $995K. My guess is that it would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100034307-7151_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

This one’s just 21% above its 2001 price, and it’s not selling.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100011067-7220_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

Here’s a weird one. Sold for $500K in 1999, and is now contingent @ $650K (didn’t sell too quickly either, IIRC). It’s not $1MM+, but in a “desirable” area.
————-

This one sold for $2.2MM in 2001, and is now listed for $2.495MM.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100040323-3371_Calle_Tres_Vistas_Encinitas_CA_92024
—————-

This one sold for $525K in 1995, and is now contingent at $980K, after a number of reductions and many months on the market. I think this would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090058725-3145_Caminito_Ricardo_Encinitas_CA_92024
————

Just wanted to point out a few that have had very little appreciation, comparatively speaking. As mentioned above, if it’s listed for around 2001 prices, it will usually sell fairly quickly.

As for the bet…make it margaritas at the local Mexican restaurant (near the ice cream place) and it’s a deal. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
The one you pointed out is a short sale. They couldnt get it done at $1.3M becuase buyers in that range dont want to deal with the uncertainty of a short sale when they dont have to. They dropped the price about 300K tis week as part of that desparate attempt. This is a desparate attempt to get a short sale and in no way relfective of market prices. What you see is not always reality and I dont see homes in $1M+ range around 2000/2001 prices around here. Please provide examples.

The comp for the Camino De Orchidia house closed about 1 month ago at more than $1.5M. If the bank accepts $1M for this they are morons or quite possibly someone is writing a big check to satisfy junior liens out side of escrow that while part of the sales price wont be reflected as such. Personally, I’d place a side bet for a Juanita’s carnita burrito that it turns into an REO.[/quote]

Okay, look at the one on Meadowmist that is pending (that one’s been on and off the market over the past few years — this, in regards to the other thread). Also, there have been a few pendings and closed sales in the custom areas of older LC (with ocean views to boot, IIRC) that have sold for very close to 2000/2001 prices (maybe 10% over those levels, if that, which is nothing compared to the mid-level appreciation).
————

There’s this one for that sold for $575 in 1993, and $579K in 1996…now listed for $995K. My guess is that it would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100034307-7151_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

This one’s just 21% above its 2001 price, and it’s not selling.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100011067-7220_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

Here’s a weird one. Sold for $500K in 1999, and is now contingent @ $650K (didn’t sell too quickly either, IIRC). It’s not $1MM+, but in a “desirable” area.
————-

This one sold for $2.2MM in 2001, and is now listed for $2.495MM.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100040323-3371_Calle_Tres_Vistas_Encinitas_CA_92024
—————-

This one sold for $525K in 1995, and is now contingent at $980K, after a number of reductions and many months on the market. I think this would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090058725-3145_Caminito_Ricardo_Encinitas_CA_92024
————

Just wanted to point out a few that have had very little appreciation, comparatively speaking. As mentioned above, if it’s listed for around 2001 prices, it will usually sell fairly quickly.

As for the bet…make it margaritas at the local Mexican restaurant (near the ice cream place) and it’s a deal. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
The one you pointed out is a short sale. They couldnt get it done at $1.3M becuase buyers in that range dont want to deal with the uncertainty of a short sale when they dont have to. They dropped the price about 300K tis week as part of that desparate attempt. This is a desparate attempt to get a short sale and in no way relfective of market prices. What you see is not always reality and I dont see homes in $1M+ range around 2000/2001 prices around here. Please provide examples.

The comp for the Camino De Orchidia house closed about 1 month ago at more than $1.5M. If the bank accepts $1M for this they are morons or quite possibly someone is writing a big check to satisfy junior liens out side of escrow that while part of the sales price wont be reflected as such. Personally, I’d place a side bet for a Juanita’s carnita burrito that it turns into an REO.[/quote]

Okay, look at the one on Meadowmist that is pending (that one’s been on and off the market over the past few years — this, in regards to the other thread). Also, there have been a few pendings and closed sales in the custom areas of older LC (with ocean views to boot, IIRC) that have sold for very close to 2000/2001 prices (maybe 10% over those levels, if that, which is nothing compared to the mid-level appreciation).
————

There’s this one for that sold for $575 in 1993, and $579K in 1996…now listed for $995K. My guess is that it would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100034307-7151_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

This one’s just 21% above its 2001 price, and it’s not selling.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100011067-7220_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

Here’s a weird one. Sold for $500K in 1999, and is now contingent @ $650K (didn’t sell too quickly either, IIRC). It’s not $1MM+, but in a “desirable” area.
————-

This one sold for $2.2MM in 2001, and is now listed for $2.495MM.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100040323-3371_Calle_Tres_Vistas_Encinitas_CA_92024
—————-

This one sold for $525K in 1995, and is now contingent at $980K, after a number of reductions and many months on the market. I think this would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090058725-3145_Caminito_Ricardo_Encinitas_CA_92024
————

Just wanted to point out a few that have had very little appreciation, comparatively speaking. As mentioned above, if it’s listed for around 2001 prices, it will usually sell fairly quickly.

As for the bet…make it margaritas at the local Mexican restaurant (near the ice cream place) and it’s a deal. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
The one you pointed out is a short sale. They couldnt get it done at $1.3M becuase buyers in that range dont want to deal with the uncertainty of a short sale when they dont have to. They dropped the price about 300K tis week as part of that desparate attempt. This is a desparate attempt to get a short sale and in no way relfective of market prices. What you see is not always reality and I dont see homes in $1M+ range around 2000/2001 prices around here. Please provide examples.

The comp for the Camino De Orchidia house closed about 1 month ago at more than $1.5M. If the bank accepts $1M for this they are morons or quite possibly someone is writing a big check to satisfy junior liens out side of escrow that while part of the sales price wont be reflected as such. Personally, I’d place a side bet for a Juanita’s carnita burrito that it turns into an REO.[/quote]

Okay, look at the one on Meadowmist that is pending (that one’s been on and off the market over the past few years — this, in regards to the other thread). Also, there have been a few pendings and closed sales in the custom areas of older LC (with ocean views to boot, IIRC) that have sold for very close to 2000/2001 prices (maybe 10% over those levels, if that, which is nothing compared to the mid-level appreciation).
————

There’s this one for that sold for $575 in 1993, and $579K in 1996…now listed for $995K. My guess is that it would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100034307-7151_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

This one’s just 21% above its 2001 price, and it’s not selling.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100011067-7220_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

Here’s a weird one. Sold for $500K in 1999, and is now contingent @ $650K (didn’t sell too quickly either, IIRC). It’s not $1MM+, but in a “desirable” area.
————-

This one sold for $2.2MM in 2001, and is now listed for $2.495MM.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100040323-3371_Calle_Tres_Vistas_Encinitas_CA_92024
—————-

This one sold for $525K in 1995, and is now contingent at $980K, after a number of reductions and many months on the market. I think this would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090058725-3145_Caminito_Ricardo_Encinitas_CA_92024
————

Just wanted to point out a few that have had very little appreciation, comparatively speaking. As mentioned above, if it’s listed for around 2001 prices, it will usually sell fairly quickly.

As for the bet…make it margaritas at the local Mexican restaurant (near the ice cream place) and it’s a deal. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
The one you pointed out is a short sale. They couldnt get it done at $1.3M becuase buyers in that range dont want to deal with the uncertainty of a short sale when they dont have to. They dropped the price about 300K tis week as part of that desparate attempt. This is a desparate attempt to get a short sale and in no way relfective of market prices. What you see is not always reality and I dont see homes in $1M+ range around 2000/2001 prices around here. Please provide examples.

The comp for the Camino De Orchidia house closed about 1 month ago at more than $1.5M. If the bank accepts $1M for this they are morons or quite possibly someone is writing a big check to satisfy junior liens out side of escrow that while part of the sales price wont be reflected as such. Personally, I’d place a side bet for a Juanita’s carnita burrito that it turns into an REO.[/quote]

Okay, look at the one on Meadowmist that is pending (that one’s been on and off the market over the past few years — this, in regards to the other thread). Also, there have been a few pendings and closed sales in the custom areas of older LC (with ocean views to boot, IIRC) that have sold for very close to 2000/2001 prices (maybe 10% over those levels, if that, which is nothing compared to the mid-level appreciation).
————

There’s this one for that sold for $575 in 1993, and $579K in 1996…now listed for $995K. My guess is that it would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100034307-7151_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

This one’s just 21% above its 2001 price, and it’s not selling.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100011067-7220_Babilonia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009
————–

Here’s a weird one. Sold for $500K in 1999, and is now contingent @ $650K (didn’t sell too quickly either, IIRC). It’s not $1MM+, but in a “desirable” area.
————-

This one sold for $2.2MM in 2001, and is now listed for $2.495MM.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100040323-3371_Calle_Tres_Vistas_Encinitas_CA_92024
—————-

This one sold for $525K in 1995, and is now contingent at $980K, after a number of reductions and many months on the market. I think this would have sold for around $800K-$850K in 2001.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090058725-3145_Caminito_Ricardo_Encinitas_CA_92024
————

Just wanted to point out a few that have had very little appreciation, comparatively speaking. As mentioned above, if it’s listed for around 2001 prices, it will usually sell fairly quickly.

As for the bet…make it margaritas at the local Mexican restaurant (near the ice cream place) and it’s a deal. 😉

[pemeliza]

I agree with you CAR even though a couple of your examples are in the SM school district. If you have a million to spend and are buying at substantially greater than 2000-2001 pricing than either you are not looking hard enough or are after an exceptionally rare property. In my neck of the woods, Mission Hills, a REO just closed for 19% over the 1998 price. The catch is that the price was 950k which is out of reach for most buyers.

[pemeliza]

I agree with you CAR even though a couple of your examples are in the SM school district. If you have a million to spend and are buying at substantially greater than 2000-2001 pricing than either you are not looking hard enough or are after an exceptionally rare property. In my neck of the woods, Mission Hills, a REO just closed for 19% over the 1998 price. The catch is that the price was 950k which is out of reach for most buyers.

[pemeliza]

I agree with you CAR even though a couple of your examples are in the SM school district. If you have a million to spend and are buying at substantially greater than 2000-2001 pricing than either you are not looking hard enough or are after an exceptionally rare property. In my neck of the woods, Mission Hills, a REO just closed for 19% over the 1998 price. The catch is that the price was 950k which is out of reach for most buyers.

[pemeliza]

I agree with you CAR even though a couple of your examples are in the SM school district. If you have a million to spend and are buying at substantially greater than 2000-2001 pricing than either you are not looking hard enough or are after an exceptionally rare property. In my neck of the woods, Mission Hills, a REO just closed for 19% over the 1998 price. The catch is that the price was 950k which is out of reach for most buyers.

[Author]

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