The Short Sale Monitor

[Artifact]

Not much different in the plots – the rate of increase in the percent short sales seemed to decrease slightly due to the larger increase in total listings.

[img_assist|nid=3089|title= Total and Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=281][img_assist|nid=3090|title= Percent Increases and Precent Short Sales of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=281]

[CAwireman]

Much appreciated!

Thanks sdr for the data and thanks to Arifact for the graphs!

I look forward to them each week.

[sdrealtor]

Short sales 1,833 heading up again from 1,705 last week!

Total SD County Listings 16,218 another decent climb from 15,733 last week. We are in tax season and as expected it was a quiet week with the climb in inventory right in line with what should be expected.

I dont have access to all the data on my office computer to compare whats happening in the North County Coastal market. My guess is very little changed this week but it will be interesting to see how it compare to prior years data. I’ll try to get to it tommorrow.

March closings of resale homes (I pull out the builder sales) were 90 last year and 94 reported so far for this year.

For the county watchers in the audience, there were 2,006 sales in 2006 and so far there have been 1,535 reported for 2007 in March. We continue seeing a separation between different geographical areas response to the housing market.

[sdrealtor]

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings and Pending (in escrow) listings are virtually unchanged form last week. Both are down a couple. This time last year there was already an upward trend. Since January 15th the detached home inventory has been about 450 homes with a very tight range (+/- 10 to 15 homes). Pendings on the other hand have gone from 104 homes to 178 homes and have been as high as 186. Not much in the way of real discernable weakness here.

As an aside, I was at a networking meeting with several dozen agents where we pitch new listings and buyer needs. There were alot more buyer needs than new lsitings coming up. In particular, there is alot of unmet demand for nice single level homes with at least 1800 sq ft and preferably a 3 car garage. If you’ve got one, particulalry of the none tract home variety with a view, you are lucky as they are getting harder and harder to find.

[Artifact]

Here are the plots. Mostly the same trend continuing.

[img_assist|nid=3170|title= San Diego County Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=3171|title= Percent Changes in Short Sales and Total Listings and Percent Short Sales of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[sddreaming]

Thank you Artifact. I like that trend.

[Anonymous]

A question for sdrealtor and all other realtors out there:

I’m assuming (despite the inherent dangers) that you’re using a custom search in the mls and generating your numbers using the statistics feature. However, for smaller searches generating less than 250 properties, I’ve noticed that when you it lists MORE properties than shown by the statistics number. For example, a combo search for 92014 active listings yeilds 116 under statistics but viewing the requested listings results in 136 properties. This happens for most searches and the number of actual properties listed is ALWAYS MORE than the statistics indicate. Which leads me to conclude that Zip Realty’s number of ~19,500 active listings may be more accurate.

Perhaps you are all aware of this and have a logical explanation, or I’m doing something wrong. In any case I’d appreciate your comments. If this is something that’s already been discussed on this blog, I apologize.

[sdrealtor]

It was discussed a couple weeks back when about 1000 listings disappeared from the MLS almost overnite. The systems limit what we can do and I dont advise using these numbers for anything other than gauging the direction and velocity of the market. I hope that answers your questions.

[jimklinge]

I agree with sdrealtor that we can only use these numbers for gauging the direction and velocity.

Sandicor is deleting listings from the MLS.

Whether they are doing it deliberately to try and prop up the market, or if they’re trying to save on memory, I don’t care – it is WRONG!

I pay my dues to get the full MLS, not part of it. They have already made it more difficult by putting that 250 cap on sample sizes, they are deleting listings, what else will they think of next to inhibit our use of the OUR data?

I will take great pleasure in seeing Google or Zillow or somebody create the OpenMLS that’s fully transparent and put the Association of Realtors out of business. You’re supposed to HELP US, not inhibit us!

Jim the Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Short sales 1,916 heading up again from 1,833 last week!

Total SD County Listings 16,534 a relatively small climb from 16,218 last week. The week after writing checks to the IRS, alot more paniced sellers should have materialized. Maybe this week?

I will try to get to NC as soon as I can but expect more of the same (i.e. flat to slightly declining inventory and increasing pendings).

[PerryChase]

I see 19,777 listings on ziprealty. I don’t have MLS access. I was wondering that the difference is? Does anyone know?

[Artifact]

And the accompanying pretty pictures. I added a gray line on the second figure to show the zero change point for reference – above that the numbers are going up, below they are decreasing.

NOTE: I finally had to expand the left hand y-axis! Remember in the first figure there is a x10 distortion between short sale data and total listings.

[img_assist|nid=3218|title= Total listing and short sales in San Diego County|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]
[img_assist|nid=3219|title= Percent change and percent short sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]

[sdrealtor]

PC,
Two things explain the difference. I search only SD county listings in the MLS. There are lots of out of area listings in Sandicor that ZIP Realty includes and I dont. There is also some kind of a glitch going on with the MLS and about 1000 listings disappeared a month ago from the count in one day. I cant resolve it so I just stick to a consistent methodology. In my eyes, the numbers are fun to look at but the real issue is what direction are they going and how fast.

Hope this adds some clarity to a very unclear situation.

sdr

[Anonymous]

Based on the numbers from their site, Zip Realty does not include out of area listings for the San Diego total, currently 19,816.

[sdrealtor]

How do you know that?

[Author]

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