Tesla Model 3

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=LAAFTERHOURS]325K preorders in the first week (per Elon today). Wow..

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-model-elon-musk-update-blockbuster-week-pre/story?id=38230393%5B/quote%5D
Awesome. Hope they can meet the demand and make a decent profit each car.

I’m looking forward to the day where someone crack the charging performance and be able to fully charge the car in 2-5 minutes. Then all the current gas station can put in a bunch of charging station. That would eliminate the range anxiety part of me.[/quote]

I don’t know, I think 325k people with that $1000 deposit just funded the first 100 so to be built. I hope the remaining 324.9k people get a car or at least get their deposit back and Tesla doesn’t go belly up. I hope this isn’t auto vaporware.

I don’t see Tesla building 325k model 3’s anytime soon, as it appears they can’t even build Model X’s fast enough. And if they somehow can crank up the volume, I wonder if they can keep quality up to par.

This will probably be the car that will make or break Tesla. I do hope Musk succeeds.

[no_such_reality]

We fall in the camp of needing 100 miles per day useable, due to commutes.

In crunching numbers the costs aren’t so rosy or simple.

Firstly, that’s a typical run of around 2500 miles a month. With charging losses, your looking in the range of 900kwh per month.

TOU isn’t a panacea and may be detrimental to your solar net metering. TOU peaks in early evening 4-8PM, right when you geTbhome and crank up the AC. It also con insides with very low efficiency on your solar.

As others pointed out a Prius is ~50mpg, which equates to 50 gals of gas. At $4-$5/gal that’s $200-$250 a month. At 18 cents a kWh, that’s $162 not including other charges (like having dedicated electrical put in). If your not on TOU, your pretty much talking tier 4 rates, err, now tier 3 since only three and next year tier two since only two. I’m assuming with a car you can wiggle out of super user surcharges.

Either way, currently 37-40 cents per KWh. Which would run a $300 Electric bill.

I just checked SDGE, they have a much friendlier TOU structure for EV. 46 cents peak of noon to 8pm, 22 cents off peak, 18 cents super off midnight to 5am. SCE is 48 cents peak 2pm to 8 pm, 31 cents off peak 8am to 2pm and 8pm to 10pm and super off of 12 cents (10pm to 8 am). Since I wouldn’t be waking out to plug my car in at 10 pm, quite a bit of that is going to hut that 48&31 cent rates.

[an]

[quote=flu]I don’t know, I think 325k people with that $1000 deposit just funded the first 100 so to be built. I hope the remaining 324.9k people get a car or at least get their deposit back and Tesla doesn’t go belly up. I hope this isn’t auto vaporware.

I don’t see Tesla building 325k model 3’s anytime soon, as it appears they can’t even build Model X’s fast enough. And if they somehow can crank up the volume, I wonder if they can keep quality up to par.

This will probably be the car that will make or break Tesla. I do hope Musk succeeds.[/quote]Have you checked the Model S reliability? http://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095
Base on the stuff I see, I don’t know if I want them to just “keep quality up to par”, since it’s not up to par today. They sure fix the problem quickly, but what happen when you’re out of warranty? How many things will break and how much will it cost to fix? Go fast and fix shit quickly works in the software world, but it doesn’t work for a car, when some of those fixes require a person to tighten bolts and stuff.

[spdrun]

Looks like the lion’s share of problems are cosmetic/body/trim, not serious.

[an]

[quote=spdrun]Looks like the lion’s share of problems are cosmetic/body/trim, not serious.[/quote]LoL, I would hate to be the owner who have to deal w/ those stuff after dropping $40k+ for the car. Would you say the same thing if your BMW, Benz, etc. have the same build quality?

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=spdrun]Looks like the lion’s share of problems are cosmetic/body/trim, not serious.[/quote]LoL, I would hate to be the owner who have to deal w/ those stuff after dropping $40k+ for the car. Would you say the same thing if your BMW, Benz, etc. have the same build quality?[/quote]

No,.we.just expect the BMW quality to fall off the cliff after the 4th year of ownership, after the warranty expires. Lol.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
Well, if you’re comparing a Leaf, you should be comparing it against a Prius. Which gets 54/50 MPG. If you drive 100k miles, you’ll need 2000 gallons, ~$3, that’s $6k in fuel cost.

With solar, that’s about $2k in electricity cost with TOU and solar. Without solar and with TOU, your cost would be ~$5k. That’s assuming you work during the day and only charge at night. If you’re a stay at home spouse and drive/charge it through out the day, it would be >$5k. So, the fuel saving it’s too big IMHO.

I don’t think $1-4k fuel saving over 100k miles is that big of a deal.

Also keep in mind not all of us have roof big enough to satisfy all of our usage. I maxed out my roof and it’s still not enough to put me at $0, so if I get an EV, i’m not sure how much it’ll cost me. I haven’t properly done the math yet.[/quote]

But then a used Prius is pricier and in general with a lot more miles on it.

if we are talking poor folks where every cent counts, are they really the types to turn on the AC in the golden afternoon peak generation period for TOU2?

The cost for EV is coming down rapidly and the used LEAF fleet does present a case for EV trickling down to the lower socioeconomic groups. I think the reason why poor folks have not taken to EVs have more to do with lack of information and knowledge.

[spdrun]

^^^

Not only. Poorer people tend to disproportionately rent apartments and street-park. Makes charging a bit harder than if you own a house + carport or garage.

[ocrenter]

[quote=spdrun]^^^

Not only. Poorer people tend to disproportionately rent apartments and street-park. Makes charging a bit harder than if you own a house + carport or garage.[/quote]

That is true, plus home ownership % is less as well, making it less practical to install EVSEs.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]But then a used Prius is pricier and in general with a lot more miles on it.

if we are talking poor folks where every cent counts, are they really the types to turn on the AC in the golden afternoon peak generation period for TOU2?

The cost for EV is coming down rapidly and the used LEAF fleet does present a case for EV trickling down to the lower socioeconomic groups. I think the reason why poor folks have not taken to EVs have more to do with lack of information and knowledge.[/quote]You’re right, Prius is more expensive.

That’s the problem isn’t it? the poor folks who count every cents won’t be living in a house, so a Leaf would be useless to them, since they can’t charge it (no garage). Maybe that’s why the depreciation on the Leaf is so huge. You’re right, those who count every penny won’t be turning on the AC in the peak time because they’re working.

I don’t think the Leaf will ever be a useful car for the lower socioeconomic groups. I don’t think it’s lack of information and knowledge. I think the main reason is what I stated above. Those in the lower socioeconomic groups won’t be living in a place that allow them to charge an electric car. The only way EV would reach that group of buyers is if they can fix the charging problem (20-30 min for a supercharge isn’t good enough, it needs to be at 2-3 minutes). Once they fix that, then every gas station can sell electricity as well as petroleum.

Majority of people don’t live in a single family home. How do you expect them to charge their EV? This is why I think until the fix the charging problem, the lowest socioeconomic group EV can reach down to is the middle class who live in a SFR.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]You’re right, Prius is more expensive.

That’s the problem isn’t it? the poor folks who count every cents won’t be living in a house, so a Leaf would be useless to them, since they can’t charge it (no garage). Maybe that’s why the depreciation on the Leaf is so huge. You’re right, those who count every penny won’t be turning on the AC in the peak time because they’re working.

I don’t think the Leaf will ever be a useful car for the lower socioeconomic groups. I don’t think it’s lack of information and knowledge. I think the main reason is what I stated above. Those in the lower socioeconomic groups won’t be living in a place that allow them to charge an electric car. The only way EV would reach that group of buyers is if they can fix the charging problem (20-30 min for a supercharge isn’t good enough, it needs to be at 2-3 minutes). Once they fix that, then every gas station can sell electricity as well as petroleum.

Majority of people don’t live in a single family home. How do you expect them to charge their EV? This is why I think until the fix the charging problem, the lowest socioeconomic group EV can reach down to is the middle class who live in a SFR.[/quote]

you are right, tech is moving but in addition, this is why the way the math is calculated needs to change.

right now gasoline is over subsidized and the wasted energy to refine and transport gas, gas wasted in traffic, as well as the CO2 emissions are all not counted into the equation.

Right now we are looking at a cup of Prego spaghetti sauce (with 1000 mg of sodium and enough sugar to fulfill one’s daily allowance) and comparing it to a cup of freshly made spaghetti sauce without the added sodium and sugar. And right now consumers are making the conclusion that the Prego is a much better choice due to the price point. But if we factor in the increased risk for hypertension and diabetes from the Prego into the equation, the conclusion may be very different.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
you are right, tech is moving but in addition, this is why the way the math is calculated needs to change.

right now gasoline is over subsidized and the wasted energy to refine and transport gas, gas wasted in traffic, as well as the CO2 emissions are all not counted into the equation.

Right now we are looking at a cup of Prego spaghetti sauce (with 1000 mg of sodium and enough sugar to fulfill one’s daily allowance) and comparing it to a cup of freshly made spaghetti sauce without the added sodium and sugar. And right now consumers are making the conclusion that the Prego is a much better choice due to the price point. But if we factor in the increased risk for hypertension and diabetes from the Prego into the equation, the conclusion may be very different.[/quote]It’s funny you feel that gasoline is over subsidized. I feel that green energy is over subsidized. I’m not complaining, because it’s benefiting me and I’m taking full advantage of it. However, I’m also aware of the amount if subsidy that people like me get. I.E. people with solar are not paying to maintain the grid, yet we use it. People with EV don’t pay gas tax, which is used to maintain the road, yet EV driver use it. Not to mention the obvious tax credit as well. We’re talking about $10k/car if you’re living CA.

I don’t think your example regarding food is a good analogy because I don’t think it’s as black and white as your food analogy. Yes, EV car itself doesn’t emit CO2. However, it has other harmful effect to the environment that ICE car doesn’t. Such as the disposal of battery once it reaches its life span. What will you do with it? You can melt down an ICE engine’s metal and reuse it. Can’t really do that with battery. Then there’s the question of where you’re getting the energy from. Keep in mind that most of US’s electricity is still coming from coal, which is much more dirtier than an ICE engine. How about the heavy equipment that are used to mine the rare minerals that are needed to create those battery.

Also, keep in mind that these subsidies are going to the top 10% of the population. Which I think is unfair in and of itself. I don’t think the bottom 90% of the people should have to subsidize something that only the top 10% can afford to get.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]It’s funny you feel that gasoline is over subsidized. I feel that green energy is over subsidized. I’m not complaining, because it’s benefiting me and I’m taking full advantage of it. However, I’m also aware of the amount if subsidy that people like me get. I.E. people with solar are not paying to maintain the grid, yet we use it. People with EV don’t pay gas tax, which is used to maintain the road, yet EV driver use it. Not to mention the obvious tax credit as well. We’re talking about $10k/car if you’re living CA.

I don’t think your example regarding food is a good analogy because I don’t think it’s as black and white as your food analogy. Yes, EV car itself doesn’t emit CO2. However, it has other harmful effect to the environment that ICE car doesn’t. Such as the disposal of battery once it reaches its life span. What will you do with it? You can melt down an ICE engine’s metal and reuse it. Can’t really do that with battery. Then there’s the question of where you’re getting the energy from. Keep in mind that most of US’s electricity is still coming from coal, which is much more dirtier than an ICE engine. How about the heavy equipment that are used to mine the rare minerals that are needed to create those battery.

Also, keep in mind that these subsidies are going to the top 10% of the population. Which I think is unfair in and of itself. I don’t think the bottom 90% of the people should have to subsidize something that only the top 10% can afford to get.[/quote]

“Fossil fuels are reaping support of $550 billion annually, according the International Energy Agency (IEA), an organisation that represents oil- and gas-consuming countries, more than four times those given for renewable energy. The International Monetary Fund’s estimates are substantially higher. It said in May that countries will spend $5.3 trillion subsiding oil, gas and coal in 2015, versus $2 trillion in 2011.” Economist July 2015

you go to different organizations and depending on which site you go to, you’ll get a different spin based on who is backing that website. But I would say the Economist is a pretty decent source.

1. on the grid issue, majority of solar customers were tier 4 customers that have been subsidizing the rest of the customers for ages. some temporary reprive from supporting the grid until the electric companies figure out how to bill solar customers is not what I would consider a major subsidy.

2. majority of roadway damages are caused by heavy trucks. most EVs are not the heavy enough to cause damage. in addition, a very small fraction of the overall fleet to really consider as a major subsidy. eventually this will change when EVs are more popular.

3. most of the gasoline subsidies are at the production end where it ends up in the pocket of Big Oil. whereas the tax credits are for the individual. So we should eliminate the tax credits for the individual but keep granting billions of subsidies for Big Oil????

4. EV batteries are not disposed. They are reused. After degradation down to 70%, it can be repurposed as electricity storage units. Have you seen pictures of bunch of old Prius batteries repurposed for a remote off grid ranger station that relies solely on solar, and use the repurposed batteries for energy storage? pretty cool example of things to come.

5. regarding electricity vs gas CO2 emission, go to this website: http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/ev-emissions-tool#.VwwB-pwrI-U
remember too that the regions that produce the dirtest electricity are also the red states that barely have any EVs on the road.

6. lithium is actually very abundant, it is just that demand is new, therefore the production capacity is new as well. as for the environmental impact of a gasoline driven world? I think the evidence is everywhere.

7. most of the subsidies are typically going to the top. something related to this site, mortage subsidies is one of the biggest one of them all at well over $100 billion. that is exceptionally unfair. but EVs are not limited to the rich, it is just that the rich/educated class are the ones buying them.

[an]

That $550B annual, is that the subsidy that that US government give them?

1. I and many people in my age group don’t apply. I only pay in tier 4 for about a year or two, then I went solar.

2. Telsa Model X is heavier than most cars/trucks. Model S is heavier than most cars. Nissan Leaf is heavier than all the cars in its size. However, regardless of how much damage it make to the road relative to other cars, it still make damage and it’s not paying their fair share to maintain the road.

3. I don’t like either of these type of subsidies.

4. That’s only because EV/Hybrid are a small small % of all cars. What would happen to all the batteries when every car is EV/hybrid? There won’t be enough need to reuse all of those batteries. Then tell me what happen when those battery degrade <30-50%? Which will happen. Do you think it will never be disposed?

5. I totally understand. I'm not arguing that ICE car is cleaner than EV. However, there are many variables. Such as distance driven. My commute is 6 miles one way. My ICE car produce less CO2 than a EV if the owner commute 30 miles one way.

6. Yes, the evidence is everywhere. Just look how many people are lifted out of poverty because of it. Along with the many other benefits. I can't imagine the world w/out airplane, cargo ships, plastic, electricity, etc.

7. Agree. But it doesn't make it any less unfair. Yes, EVs are limited to the rich. Tell me how you're supposed to charge your EV if you live in an old apartment?

Let me put it this way, IMHO, the benefit of fossil fuel up to this point far out weigh the increase in CO2 emission. Of course that doesn't mean we should find way to reduce CO2. I just think when you're dirt poor, having reliable electricity is a BIG deal. I grew up in an area where there wasn't reliable electricity and I feel like many people here don't understand how big of an impact it is because we take reliable electricity for granted.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]That $550B annual, is that the subsidy that that US government give them?

1. I and many people in my age group don’t apply. I only pay in tier 4 for about a year or two, then I went solar.

2. Telsa Model X is heavier than most cars/trucks. Model S is heavier than most cars. Nissan Leaf is heavier than all the cars in its size. However, regardless of how much damage it make to the road relative to other cars, it still make damage and it’s not paying their fair share to maintain the road.

3. I don’t like either of these type of subsidies.

4. That’s only because EV/Hybrid are a small small % of all cars. What would happen to all the batteries when every car is EV/hybrid? There won’t be enough need to reuse all of those batteries. Then tell me what happen when those battery degrade <30-50%? Which will happen. Do you think it will never be disposed?

5. I totally understand. I'm not arguing that ICE car is cleaner than EV. However, there are many variables. Such as distance driven. My commute is 6 miles one way. My ICE car produce less CO2 than a EV if the owner commute 30 miles one way.

6. Yes, the evidence is everywhere. Just look how many people are lifted out of poverty because of it. Along with the many other benefits. I can't imagine the world w/out airplane, cargo ships, plastic, electricity, etc.

7. Agree. But it doesn't make it any less unfair. Yes, EVs are limited to the rich. Tell me how you're supposed to charge your EV if you live in an old apartment?

Let me put it this way, IMHO, the benefit of fossil fuel up to this point far out weigh the increase in CO2 emission. Of course that doesn't mean we should find way to reduce CO2. I just think when you're dirt poor, having reliable electricity is a BIG deal. I grew up in an area where there wasn't reliable electricity and I feel like many people here don't understand how big of an impact it is because we take reliable electricity for granted.[/quote]

Here's the breakdown on the fed subsidies:
http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/ada2753-min.jpg

1. You have to look at how long SDGE has had the 4 tier system to jack up the high utilizers to see how much and how long this group has subsidized the rest of the customers.

2. I think you misunderstood when I mentioned trucks, we are talking delivery trucks and up. As for paying fair share, that will come as EV % increases overall. Believe me, politicians will find a way to tax and levy fees.

3. New tech needs time to mature and grow, think solar panels. This is the reason for the renewable subsidies. Why do we still need fossil fuel subsidies? You would think that technology has matured sufficiently to get off the government's dime.

4. Energy storage is going to be absolutely transformative to the entire grid. the need for battery storage will expand so much that even at 30-50% capacity, we will still find old EV batteries to be very useful. As for after that, recycling of batteries is an existing tech and certainly new tech to recycle will exist as well.

5. Again, not looking at individual, but more on a macro level with co2 production per say 100,000 miles driven.

6. Not saying there has not been benefit from fossil fuel. Just that this continued dependency is not possible. Just like sugar and salt are essential for life, but in excess can be very problematic.

7. The government needs to help improve the charging infrastructure.

Eventually the benefit of fossil fuel will tilt. It was fine when just N.America and Europe were using fossil fuel with one person per car. Then you have the BRIC countries, then soon enough all of Africa and rest of the world... It isn't sustainable.

[Author]

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