Tesla Model 3

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]Bakersfield doesn’t need a “job center” but does have many teaching, govm’t jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn’t have any reason to move to Bakersfield.[/quote]

Bakersfield is a good long term investment IMO. High speed rail, cal state, medical and oil industry, and land for suburban development, etc… Build it and they will come.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]Bakersfield doesn’t need a “job center” but does have many teaching, govm’t jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn’t have any reason to move to Bakersfield.[/quote]

Bakersfield is a good long term investment IMO. High speed rail, cal state, medical and oil industry, and land for suburban development, etc… Build it and they will come.[/quote]Is that train actually going to come into fruition, FIH? I thought I’d be boarding it to see my friend in Delhi with my walker and bifocals on …. That is, if we’re both still alive at that time!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Temecula actually already has some failrly large BioTech firms.

Also CSUSM does have an extension in Temecula.[/quote]An “extension” is NOT the same as a CSU campus. It’s usually just 1-2 floors in an office bldg. Perhaps tech firms are trickling in to the IE (with branches/satellite ofcs?). But it is still a “remote outpost” with “branch-office towns.” It would be highly preferable to me to live much closer to work if I worked in one of those sectors. I feel that in the absence of being able to afford a SFR near a SD tech center, even an older, large (1700+ sf) condo in the UTC area would be preferable for tech workers to live in as opposed to moving 45++ miles away from their jobs. Yes, even those workers with kids! At least if the HOA dues in those complexes are now ~$350 month, the homeowner would actually be receiving valuable services such as a pool, jacuzzi and weight room, etc, for their monthly dues. These well-located, well-established complexes have very nicely held their value over ~3 decades :=)

[FlyerInHi]

I foresee a world of electric cars and high speed trains, maybe after I’m dead, but it will happen sooner or later. People in the future will look back at the old discussions and think that those late 20th century people were so backward.

[spdrun]

California would be better off electrifying existing lines and rebuilding them to average 100-120 mph where possible.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]Back to the Model 3, I don’t understand why you would say the owner of a Model 3 would be immune to fuel costs. Have you checked your SDG&E bill lately? If you don’t have solar, I wouldn’t say you’re immune to fuel costs.

I would say autonomous cars would affect the commute more than an EV. With autonomous car, you can actually work while you’re “commuting”. Then, essentially, you’re no longer “commuting”, since you can start working as soon as you get into the car.

As for road noise, I think tire noise is much louder than the noise the engine make at ~2k RPM driving down the freeway. So, I don’t think EV would make that big of a difference.

You also have to keep in mind that EV today is only viable for a small group of people. It’s not suitable for 18-wheelers, worker trucks, poor people, people who live in older areas in a condo/apartment, etc. I think EV has a long long way to go to be suitable to replace majority of vehicles on the road. Unless there’s a breakthrough that would drastically decrease the cost of producing batteries and drastically increase the density of the battery and drastically reduce the charge time of the battery (20-30 min down to 2-3 minutes).[/quote]

I do agree there are still limitations and much needed progress is still necessary to bring the technology to the broader public.

However, with TOU rates, the charging can be exceptionally affordable. And certainly used LEAFs out there are dirt cheap to afford.

Assuming a 30 mile each way commute, that translates to 1200 miles per month, or $100 gas bill at 30 mile/gal and $2.5 per gal.

Even without solar, TOU rates at night are at 18 cents per kwh. at 4 miles per kwh, that 1200 miles would yield a cost of $54.

And this comparison is with gasoline at its lowest cost in some time.

If we are looking at folks with solar like you and I, it becomes an absolute no-brainer. I just had my yearly SDGE bill coming in. $150 for my yearly electric bill when my electric bill was previously $1800 and my gasoline bill was previously $2200. So essentially $4000 bill reduced to $150 after spending $10k for the solar panels. Which means a ROI rate of less than 3 years.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

A base model 3 @ 35K before tax incentives/ credits (assuming you get them before the 200K sold threshold is met) vs a base model a4 (37K), 3 series (33K) or other comparable sedan is a no brainer to me regardless of owning solar or not. You get immediate access to HOV lanes so that is a significant added benefit as a commuter. Performance smokes the comparable options. Yes there will be tons of them on the road but what car at that price point isn’t common on the road? To another’s point, I dont think the sound of the car will lessen the noise on freeways as the tires hitting the road produce a lot of noise. Semi’s wont be replaced by tesla’s so not sure they impact home prices.

Having solar at home only adds to the value prop. I have solar and work from home. I may eventually commute but I am buying a Model 3 as soon as my reservation fulfillment email comes up. I would buy two if I could and lose my SUV as I would rather rent a big SUV for a random long distance family trip vs pay to operate, maintain and insure one. I have a kid who will be driving in 7 years so by that point my Model 3 will be a hand me down for her. How stoked would I have been when I started to drive knowing I didnt have to pay for gas (ever)?

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]I do agree there are still limitations and much needed progress is still necessary to bring the technology to the broader public.

However, with TOU rates, the charging can be exceptionally affordable. And certainly used LEAFs out there are dirt cheap to afford.

Assuming a 30 mile each way commute, that translates to 1200 miles per month, or $100 gas bill at 30 mile/gal and $2.5 per gal.

Even without solar, TOU rates at night are at 18 cents per kwh. at 4 miles per kwh, that 1200 miles would yield a cost of $54.

And this comparison is with gasoline at its lowest cost in some time.

If we are looking at folks with solar like you and I, it becomes an absolute no-brainer. I just had my yearly SDGE bill coming in. $150 for my yearly electric bill when my electric bill was previously $1800 and my gasoline bill was previously $2200. So essentially $4000 bill reduced to $150 after spending $10k for the solar panels. Which means a ROI rate of less than 3 years.[/quote]
Well, if you’re comparing a Leaf, you should be comparing it against a Prius. Which gets 54/50 MPG. If you drive 100k miles, you’ll need 2000 gallons, ~$3, that’s $6k in fuel cost.

With solar, that’s about $2k in electricity cost with TOU and solar. Without solar and with TOU, your cost would be ~$5k. That’s assuming you work during the day and only charge at night. If you’re a stay at home spouse and drive/charge it through out the day, it would be >$5k. So, the fuel saving it’s too big IMHO.

I don’t think $1-4k fuel saving over 100k miles is that big of a deal.

Also keep in mind not all of us have roof big enough to satisfy all of our usage. I maxed out my roof and it’s still not enough to put me at $0, so if I get an EV, i’m not sure how much it’ll cost me. I haven’t properly done the math yet.

[FlyerInHi]

Solar and electric cards are idefinitely the way to go, that is if utilities are forced to buy from homeowner producers at retail.
In Nevada a PUC decision has decimated for the solar industry.

California is still has solar incentives in place (Though I think it’s unfair to people who don’t have money for the upfront investment; and non solar customers subsidize the grid for solar consumers).

[an]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]Performance smokes the comparable options.[/quote]Really? Model 3 0-60 is <7 seconds while the current 328i is 5.6 seconds, the 340i is 4.6 seconds, the M3 is 3.8 seconds. So, I'm not sure the Model 3 will do the smoking.

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]How stoked would I have been when I started to drive knowing I didnt have to pay for gas (ever)?[/quote]I would assume that if you're getting a $35k+ car as your first car, you wouldn't be paying for gas, even if it's a BMW or Benz. I didn't pay for my gas when I first started driving and my first car was a Corolla, not a 3-series. I think I would be stoked to get a $35k car as my first car more so than the fact that I won't have to pay for gas.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=AN][quote=LAAFTERHOURS]Performance smokes the comparable options.[/quote]Really? Model 3 0-60 is <7 seconds while the current 328i is 5.6 seconds, the 340i is 4.6 seconds, the M3 is 3.8 seconds. So, I'm not sure the Model 3 will do the smoking.[/quote]

Smokes wasnt the best choice of words. Beats is probably more appropriate. That being said, I referenced base models and the 328i is not the base 3 series (320i is). 328i is 38k so arguably that is not an apples to apples comparison. Link for your reference http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/3series/sedan (320i / 320ix are 7.1 seconds 0-60).

[quote=AN][quote=LAAFTERHOURS]How stoked would I have been when I started to drive knowing I didnt have to pay for gas (ever)?[/quote]I would assume that if you're getting a $35k+ car as your first car, you wouldn't be paying for gas, even if it's a BMW or Benz. I didn't pay for my gas when I first started driving and my first car was a Corolla, not a 3-series. I think I would be stoked to get a $35k car as my first car more so than the fact that I won't have to pay for gas. [/quote]

In my post I mentioned my child will be driving in 7 years (at best). Assuming that in 7 years my Model 3 will be heavily used for 3-4 years, the car will probably be valued in the high teens on resale. A new corolla runs roughly 17k and up. My first car was a hand-me-down Jeep Grand Cherokee. When the Jeep was new, the car was pushing 30K but it was used and probably valued in the high teens when it was handed over to me.. Pumping cash into that thing weekly sucked as a teen. My point was that getting a first car that is a used electric car not requiring gas money on a weekly basis (which is something all or most of us had to do) is a nice benefit on top of the car itself.

[livinincali]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]
In my post I mentioned my child will be driving in 7 years (at best). Assuming that in 7 years my Model 3 will be heavily used for 3-4 years, the car will probably be valued in the high teens on resale. A new corolla runs roughly 17k and up. My first car was a hand-me-down Jeep Grand Cherokee. When the Jeep was new, the car was pushing 30K but it was used and probably valued in the high teens when it was handed over to me.. Pumping cash into that thing weekly sucked as a teen. My point was that getting a first car that is a used electric car not requiring gas money on a weekly basis (which is something all or most of us had to do) is a nice benefit on top of the car itself.[/quote]

I think it’s impossible to say what a first model year Tesla 3 will be worth 7 years down the road if not 5 years down the road. Toyota has a long track record of dependable cars. I think it’s a bit of a stretch to compare value of a first year model year car to one that has a proven track record. The very first Tesla model S’ have been on the road for just over 3 1/2 years now. Who knows how well they will function in 3 to 4 more years. What maintenance they might need what battery issues there will be. What electrical issues it might have etc. Certainly it would be fun to try out a Tesla model 3, but I don’t know that I’d be going all in on it. Maybe in 10 years nobody will want a car that doesn’t have a self driving capability.

[an]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]
Smokes wasnt the best choice of words. Beats is probably more appropriate. That being said, I referenced base models and the 328i is not the base 3 series (320i is). 328i is 38k so arguably that is not an apples to apples comparison. Link for your reference http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/3series/sedan (320i / 320ix are 7.1 seconds 0-60). [/quote]Well, you have to compare apple to apple then. The 320i starts at $32k and 328i starts at $37k, that’s TrueCar price. So, you’re right, the Model 3 would beat the 320i 7.1 sec by a few tenths, assuming that <7 second = 6.9 seconds. But then the 320i would be $3k less, which would be enough to pay for about 60k miles in gas. So, that would negate the Model 3 fuel cost advantage for the first 60k miles. This is also assuming your kid will be living in a house once he/she move out and not in an older condo that doesn't have a charging station.

This is also comparing against an overpriced BMW. If you compare to a ATS/Q50/TL-S, you can pick those up for ~$35k and they're all in the 5 seconds range for 0-60.

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]In my post I mentioned my child will be driving in 7 years (at best). Assuming that in 7 years my Model 3 will be heavily used for 3-4 years, the car will probably be valued in the high teens on resale. A new corolla runs roughly 17k and up. My first car was a hand-me-down Jeep Grand Cherokee. When the Jeep was new, the car was pushing 30K but it was used and probably valued in the high teens when it was handed over to me.. Pumping cash into that thing weekly sucked as a teen. My point was that getting a first car that is a used electric car not requiring gas money on a weekly basis (which is something all or most of us had to do) is a nice benefit on top of the car itself.[/quote]My first car was a 6 years used Corolla that was ~$11k new at the time. I didn't have to worry about fuel cost. But I would have been stoked and be gladly to pay for the fuel cost if I was given a BMW as my first car (even a 7 years used one).

[LAAFTERHOURS]

325K preorders in the first week (per Elon today). Wow..

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-model-elon-musk-update-blockbuster-week-pre/story?id=38230393

[an]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]325K preorders in the first week (per Elon today). Wow..

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-model-elon-musk-update-blockbuster-week-pre/story?id=38230393%5B/quote%5D
Awesome. Hope they can meet the demand and make a decent profit each car.

I’m looking forward to the day where someone crack the charging performance and be able to fully charge the car in 2-5 minutes. Then all the current gas station can put in a bunch of charging station. That would eliminate the range anxiety part of me.

[Author]

Posts