So, where are all the foreclosures?

[peterb]

There’s been some recent articles in the news about shadow inventory and looks pretty convincing. But the banks have two strong reasons to hold back. The first is that actually selling the property forces it’s being marked to market…bad thing for their balance sheet. The second is that they would flood the market and force the price down to the floor in weeks.

And then there’s the banking apologists who explain that they’re just overwhelmed with NOD’s and it’s like the snake eating the elephant…..

But I have a sneaking feeling the all the derivatives attached to mortgages are so incredibly leveraged out that carnage will ensue if this all happens too quickly.

[jpinpb]

CONCHO – if rents are declining and/or expected to decline, how will it benefit any investor to flood the market w/rentals? Is that already happening and maybe explaining why rents have declined some?

I understand that banks don’t want the loss on their books and are waiting for the bailout. But didn’t/isn’t the government already giving them money. When will they release their inventory? Or are they re-working all the loans already, reducing principle and interest rates. dd123 posted of a colleague that got a good deal. Is that going to happen/is happening w/all these NODs?

dd123 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally can relate to your post.

SDR – I can see that all these different band-aids may have an impact on what we have in our lap right now. BUT are we forgetting the Alt-As and Option ARMs? That is a whole other can of worms that has yet to be opened.

[jpinpb]

CONCHO – if rents are declining and/or expected to decline, how will it benefit any investor to flood the market w/rentals? Is that already happening and maybe explaining why rents have declined some?

I understand that banks don’t want the loss on their books and are waiting for the bailout. But didn’t/isn’t the government already giving them money. When will they release their inventory? Or are they re-working all the loans already, reducing principle and interest rates. dd123 posted of a colleague that got a good deal. Is that going to happen/is happening w/all these NODs?

dd123 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally can relate to your post.

SDR – I can see that all these different band-aids may have an impact on what we have in our lap right now. BUT are we forgetting the Alt-As and Option ARMs? That is a whole other can of worms that has yet to be opened.

[jpinpb]

CONCHO – if rents are declining and/or expected to decline, how will it benefit any investor to flood the market w/rentals? Is that already happening and maybe explaining why rents have declined some?

I understand that banks don’t want the loss on their books and are waiting for the bailout. But didn’t/isn’t the government already giving them money. When will they release their inventory? Or are they re-working all the loans already, reducing principle and interest rates. dd123 posted of a colleague that got a good deal. Is that going to happen/is happening w/all these NODs?

dd123 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally can relate to your post.

SDR – I can see that all these different band-aids may have an impact on what we have in our lap right now. BUT are we forgetting the Alt-As and Option ARMs? That is a whole other can of worms that has yet to be opened.

[jpinpb]

CONCHO – if rents are declining and/or expected to decline, how will it benefit any investor to flood the market w/rentals? Is that already happening and maybe explaining why rents have declined some?

I understand that banks don’t want the loss on their books and are waiting for the bailout. But didn’t/isn’t the government already giving them money. When will they release their inventory? Or are they re-working all the loans already, reducing principle and interest rates. dd123 posted of a colleague that got a good deal. Is that going to happen/is happening w/all these NODs?

dd123 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally can relate to your post.

SDR – I can see that all these different band-aids may have an impact on what we have in our lap right now. BUT are we forgetting the Alt-As and Option ARMs? That is a whole other can of worms that has yet to be opened.

[jpinpb]

CONCHO – if rents are declining and/or expected to decline, how will it benefit any investor to flood the market w/rentals? Is that already happening and maybe explaining why rents have declined some?

I understand that banks don’t want the loss on their books and are waiting for the bailout. But didn’t/isn’t the government already giving them money. When will they release their inventory? Or are they re-working all the loans already, reducing principle and interest rates. dd123 posted of a colleague that got a good deal. Is that going to happen/is happening w/all these NODs?

dd123 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally can relate to your post.

SDR – I can see that all these different band-aids may have an impact on what we have in our lap right now. BUT are we forgetting the Alt-As and Option ARMs? That is a whole other can of worms that has yet to be opened.

[patb]

[quote=SD Realtor]JP what you are seeing is the DIRECT result of the several policies that are in place. We have always seen posts saying that these policies will have no effect, that they will just amount to being seperate drops in the bucket.

We can only hope that these properties do make it to the market. However if they can dribble out, and be spread out over several years then the government will have been successful in controlling the inventory within the housing market. Another big question is what will the GSEs do. Arraya made a very good point.

Yes this may also mean that people who overextended themselves will get rewarded.

The problem is and has always been an egregious underestimation of what the forces of Wall St can do. All we can do is hope that they are overwhelmed with inventory and that the private entities that take all of the assetts off the banks books will dump them.

I guess we will see. I am hoping for that to happen.

[/quote]

I’m of the school the banks don’t have the staff to manage these.
and they are terrified of taking the hit to the books.
When they foreclose they foreclose at the Mortgage price,
so no write down, they try and avoid paying any taxes insurance, fees,
maintenance, and they are hoping to sell the paper to TARP/PPIP/Geithner,
and avoid the hit.

So it’s all drifting sideways, expect their earnings to blow
once the spring selling rush is over.

[patb]

[quote=SD Realtor]JP what you are seeing is the DIRECT result of the several policies that are in place. We have always seen posts saying that these policies will have no effect, that they will just amount to being seperate drops in the bucket.

We can only hope that these properties do make it to the market. However if they can dribble out, and be spread out over several years then the government will have been successful in controlling the inventory within the housing market. Another big question is what will the GSEs do. Arraya made a very good point.

Yes this may also mean that people who overextended themselves will get rewarded.

The problem is and has always been an egregious underestimation of what the forces of Wall St can do. All we can do is hope that they are overwhelmed with inventory and that the private entities that take all of the assetts off the banks books will dump them.

I guess we will see. I am hoping for that to happen.

[/quote]

I’m of the school the banks don’t have the staff to manage these.
and they are terrified of taking the hit to the books.
When they foreclose they foreclose at the Mortgage price,
so no write down, they try and avoid paying any taxes insurance, fees,
maintenance, and they are hoping to sell the paper to TARP/PPIP/Geithner,
and avoid the hit.

So it’s all drifting sideways, expect their earnings to blow
once the spring selling rush is over.

[patb]

[quote=SD Realtor]JP what you are seeing is the DIRECT result of the several policies that are in place. We have always seen posts saying that these policies will have no effect, that they will just amount to being seperate drops in the bucket.

We can only hope that these properties do make it to the market. However if they can dribble out, and be spread out over several years then the government will have been successful in controlling the inventory within the housing market. Another big question is what will the GSEs do. Arraya made a very good point.

Yes this may also mean that people who overextended themselves will get rewarded.

The problem is and has always been an egregious underestimation of what the forces of Wall St can do. All we can do is hope that they are overwhelmed with inventory and that the private entities that take all of the assetts off the banks books will dump them.

I guess we will see. I am hoping for that to happen.

[/quote]

I’m of the school the banks don’t have the staff to manage these.
and they are terrified of taking the hit to the books.
When they foreclose they foreclose at the Mortgage price,
so no write down, they try and avoid paying any taxes insurance, fees,
maintenance, and they are hoping to sell the paper to TARP/PPIP/Geithner,
and avoid the hit.

So it’s all drifting sideways, expect their earnings to blow
once the spring selling rush is over.

[patb]

[quote=SD Realtor]JP what you are seeing is the DIRECT result of the several policies that are in place. We have always seen posts saying that these policies will have no effect, that they will just amount to being seperate drops in the bucket.

We can only hope that these properties do make it to the market. However if they can dribble out, and be spread out over several years then the government will have been successful in controlling the inventory within the housing market. Another big question is what will the GSEs do. Arraya made a very good point.

Yes this may also mean that people who overextended themselves will get rewarded.

The problem is and has always been an egregious underestimation of what the forces of Wall St can do. All we can do is hope that they are overwhelmed with inventory and that the private entities that take all of the assetts off the banks books will dump them.

I guess we will see. I am hoping for that to happen.

[/quote]

I’m of the school the banks don’t have the staff to manage these.
and they are terrified of taking the hit to the books.
When they foreclose they foreclose at the Mortgage price,
so no write down, they try and avoid paying any taxes insurance, fees,
maintenance, and they are hoping to sell the paper to TARP/PPIP/Geithner,
and avoid the hit.

So it’s all drifting sideways, expect their earnings to blow
once the spring selling rush is over.

[patb]

[quote=SD Realtor]JP what you are seeing is the DIRECT result of the several policies that are in place. We have always seen posts saying that these policies will have no effect, that they will just amount to being seperate drops in the bucket.

We can only hope that these properties do make it to the market. However if they can dribble out, and be spread out over several years then the government will have been successful in controlling the inventory within the housing market. Another big question is what will the GSEs do. Arraya made a very good point.

Yes this may also mean that people who overextended themselves will get rewarded.

The problem is and has always been an egregious underestimation of what the forces of Wall St can do. All we can do is hope that they are overwhelmed with inventory and that the private entities that take all of the assetts off the banks books will dump them.

I guess we will see. I am hoping for that to happen.

[/quote]

I’m of the school the banks don’t have the staff to manage these.
and they are terrified of taking the hit to the books.
When they foreclose they foreclose at the Mortgage price,
so no write down, they try and avoid paying any taxes insurance, fees,
maintenance, and they are hoping to sell the paper to TARP/PPIP/Geithner,
and avoid the hit.

So it’s all drifting sideways, expect their earnings to blow
once the spring selling rush is over.

[Arraya]

Allan-You are pretty much correct, IMO. The back end (processing) and the front end (releasing to market) are all being metered by a cumulative effect. Logistic hold ups on the back end and a purposeful effort not to flood the market on front end. Even the condo-turned-rentals in my neighborhood are only being advertised one or two at a time when there are 8-30 units that are available. Some are even renting some units and trying to sell others in the same building. Otherwise known as a clusterfuck when looking at it in total and trying discern value.

[Arraya]

Allan-You are pretty much correct, IMO. The back end (processing) and the front end (releasing to market) are all being metered by a cumulative effect. Logistic hold ups on the back end and a purposeful effort not to flood the market on front end. Even the condo-turned-rentals in my neighborhood are only being advertised one or two at a time when there are 8-30 units that are available. Some are even renting some units and trying to sell others in the same building. Otherwise known as a clusterfuck when looking at it in total and trying discern value.

[Arraya]

Allan-You are pretty much correct, IMO. The back end (processing) and the front end (releasing to market) are all being metered by a cumulative effect. Logistic hold ups on the back end and a purposeful effort not to flood the market on front end. Even the condo-turned-rentals in my neighborhood are only being advertised one or two at a time when there are 8-30 units that are available. Some are even renting some units and trying to sell others in the same building. Otherwise known as a clusterfuck when looking at it in total and trying discern value.

[Arraya]

Allan-You are pretty much correct, IMO. The back end (processing) and the front end (releasing to market) are all being metered by a cumulative effect. Logistic hold ups on the back end and a purposeful effort not to flood the market on front end. Even the condo-turned-rentals in my neighborhood are only being advertised one or two at a time when there are 8-30 units that are available. Some are even renting some units and trying to sell others in the same building. Otherwise known as a clusterfuck when looking at it in total and trying discern value.

[Author]

Posts