Shiller PE Ratio above 30

[svelte]

Reading your posts lately flu, you and I think a lot alike.

Our goal net worth is very similar, we’ve just chosen different paths for getting there.

Like you, the main reason I’m not going to retire before 65 (unless the cards happen to fall that way) is that I would prefer to stay under the work insurance until Medicare kicks in, and I’d just end up doing many of the things I’m already doing at work and getting paid for it. I don’t see myself sitting at home like a hermit, so I’d go out and interact – just like I’m doing at work. I enjoy my work, they pay me well, so why not stay awhile longer?

I took a few weeks off recently (too close to my caps!) and found that a lot of chores got offloaded to me from other family members (grocery shopping, drop off/pick up kids, errands, etc)…not exactly how I had envisioned spending my retirement. I’ll stay at work and get paid, thank you!

BTW, a co-worker recently pointed out to me that COBRA could be used to retire at 63.5 and still stay covered…hmmmm…

[Coronita]

[quote=svelte]Reading your posts lately flu, you and I think a lot alike.

Our goal net worth is very similar, we’ve just chosen different paths for getting there.

Like you, the main reason I’m not going to retire before 65 (unless the cards happen to fall that way) is that I would prefer to stay under the work insurance until Medicare kicks in, and I’d just end up doing many of the things I’m already doing at work and getting paid for it. I don’t see myself sitting at home like a hermit, so I’d go out and interact – just like I’m doing at work. I enjoy my work, they pay me well, so why not stay awhile longer?

I took a few weeks off recently (too close to my caps!) and found that a lot of chores got offloaded to me from other family members (grocery shopping, drop off/pick up kids, errands, etc)…not exactly how I had envisioned spending my retirement. I’ll stay at work and get paid, thank you!

BTW, a co-worker recently pointed out to me that COBRA could be used to retire at 63.5 and still stay covered…hmmmm…[/quote]

Yes, medical and insurance is going to be challenging. For me, I’m going to have to have expensive procedures all the way from now until I’m dead. Same goes for my kid, that has the exact same thing. The medical plans offered via covered california just suck donkey butt in what they don’t cover, even if I were to buy the most expensive plans. And despite what people say, no it’s not as simply as going to TJ to get medical care for non routine things. That’s actually where the bulk of the need to generate $150k-200k/year in passive income is for. At least 1/2 of that will simply be for medical care that I will most likely be paying out of pocket. $25k for a very involved upper, lower, capso GI exam. the capso camera pill itself is a $900 disposable camera. Out of pocket, it’s about $25k/visit for GI and $25k/visit for MRI. Fortunately, for now, I only need to do them each 1 per year. Kid will probably need to do the same, so that’s another $25k/$25k per year. So $100k/year at least in medical expenses, and that’s with after tax dollars, and assuming no long term care, or hospice, or at home nursing, etc that comes up.. I’m not counting on medicare being around or providing enough coverage for me.

That’s why I sort of chuckle whenever someone says “tax the rich more” and those taxes materializes in taxing my W2 more. Do people really think $200k/year is living a luxurious life? I think the truth is, most people are totally out of touch of how expensive things are if you get sick, if it’s debilitating, and you’re not able to work. Those people are in a rude awakening when they get sick themselves and are financially unprepared. It’s not even a question of IF, it’s simply a question of when.

There’s a method to all this madness financial planning and calculated risk taking when you have no choice during your wealth building or accumulation phase, and there’s an equally important wealth preservation phase that often people forget once you’ve gotten there, to protect against losing it all. For me it’s not about all stocks, all bonds, all real estate, or all cash. It’s about distributing and planning against any single point of financial failure. In case we have a stock market meltdown, in case we have a real estate meltdown, in case we have inflation overrun that kills cash, For the same reason, having the foot in the door for everything also allows one to take advantage of any unexpected upside. For me, I’ve never been able to build anything from a one-hit, one-hand wonder. I simply don’t have that luck. And looking around, I suspect neither do most other people.

[Coronita]

Fed left rates unchanged… Goosing the markets, lol.

[FlyerInHi]

Can’t say I feel sorry for you flu. You have bad genes so tough luck, health wise. That’s the way of the markets. However, chapeau to you for being prepared and dealing with it.

Everyone in my family lives to their 90s or 100s so given that I take care of my health, I don’t expect high health care expenses. I hope I’m not forced to eat my chapeau, however.

[The-Shoveler]

Do you knock on wood while typing?

[Coronita]

Brian … I’m doing fine physically, thanks for asking…nothing money and proper healthcare and proactively being healthy can’t manage. And besides as all three of my doctor’s say, I’m in a lot better shape than others that think they are healthy but never has done any proactive screenings. those are the ones at higher risk of developing something in up until a late stage when it’s very different to treat. As with any condition, which everyone has (some just haven’t found their particular health issue. yet…) early detection, treatment, and awareness is critical. Being completely oblivious to what one has, on the other hand is the real killer. My grandpa is a perfect example of this. He was diagnosed with heptitis when he was 12-13 and his liver was really messed up. Doctor’s said he wouldn’t make it past 40. He took so damn well of himseld that outlived all of his other friends all the way to age 99 approximately. I said approximately because he kept telling us each year his birthday was 95 a few times such that we lost count, so it was at least 4-5 times… And he lived a fulfilling life, all the way to being vice-mayor of Taipei for a few years before he retired. I suspect he probably smoked opium at some point in his life, lol. It’s amazing what people can do if confronted with adversity they don’t adopt a loser mentality and put their energy into overcoming whatever limitations they have.

Furthermore, I thought about this. And conclusively I’d rather have a physical health issue that otherwise is manageable than some mental issues that is borderline socialpathic, to constantly wish for others to suffer or wish for something bad to happen to people one disagrees with, coupled with an addiction to a specific blog about real estate for which one is compelled to constantly respond and get the last word in. Because I don’t think there is any modern medicine that can fix that issue if one does not want to acknowledge and seek help. Mental health and stability is much more critical as one ages, because if untreated could result in an extremely negative and depressive life that can actually significantly reduce life expectancy much more so than any physical ailment. Unfortunately though, most of our medical health options z particularly the free ones do not cover mental health treatment, particularly Medicare. So if untreated while one is younger, it could be prohibitively expensive to treat in later life stages where one generally finds onself underinsured.

There’s actually many studies recently that people who take social media too seriously and who cannot decouple their online persona from their real life have developed social and mental issues, and on some cases have an addiction worse than drugs and alcohol, and currently there is no treatment for it.

Here you go Brian, it might be useful.

https://www.psycom.net/iadcriteria.html

And unlike you Brian, (which I indicated you would do- wish evil on people you don’t like, as once again proven here) , I do feel sorry for you and hope you seek help sooner versus later. Because your life is just as important as everyone else’s.

But tonight I will pray for your well being and being and for you to find your zen. Peace 🙂

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, you read too much into what I said. I said chapeau which means respect.

[barnaby33]

Hug it out you two. Hug it out.
Josh

[Reality]

[quote=flu]a lot of short sellers got totally buttfked this year.

[/quote]

Uh-huh

[Coronita]

Maybe you guys are correct. Maybe this one time unexpected off business cycle event is different. Maybe the virus IS going to have a huge impact in some areas that are almost 100% dependent on tourism.

I don’t think the tourism industry is going to quite be the same moving forward with a pandemic in everyone’s mind.

I think the bellweather for this might be Nevada, it will be interesting to see how things shake out.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/business-columns/real-estate-insider/las-vegas-economy-riding-high-until-coronavirus-outbreak-1981441/amp/

After all, people are saying it will get a lot worse before it gets a lot better.

[Hobie]

If Nevada could ever get a high speed train from LA to Vegas that would be a game changer, methinks.

It is interesting the cruises have survived legionnaires disease,sexual abuses by crew and still attracted customers.

[Anonymous]

So much for the trend toward moving toward urban densities. Hello to further moving to suburbs. Ooof!!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative]So much for the trend toward moving toward urban densities. Hello to further moving to suburbs. Ooof!![/quote]

Not even. Gentrification of cities will continue.
The USA is only 80% urban if you include the suburbs. The urban to rural price gap is increasing. And the difference between the top 10 metros vs small towns is increasing.

Sorry but not too many people see Allentown PA (even though it’s a city) as an aspirational place to live. I do like Pittsburg which is a university, medical and tech hub.

If you have confidence, you can invest in the suburbs while I invest in cities. Win-win. There’s enough room for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Ok you roll the dice in Vegas. We’ll see how that goes the next few years

[spdrun]

The hotspots for COVID have been places like a suburban synagogue, a church, and a suburban-ish nursing home. Heavily-urbanized South Korea has done a much better job in controlling this mess than we did.

[Author]

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