Sell

[The-Shoveler]

Seems Asia countries etc.. are starting to see second waves of the virus.

[svelte]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=svelte][quote=Rich Toscano]

Where we might part ways is in other risk assets. There are areas of the global stock market that — even after this huge rally — are still priced for positive long-term returns. In specific, developed intl value stocks are priced for returns that are slightly under the average stock returns — not great but ok. Emerging value stocks are priced for substantially higher than normal returns.
[/quote]

So here is where I get confused.

I’m pretty sure I’ve heard you say, Rich, that one shouldn’t try and time the market but should invest for the long term as in decades.

But the above sounds like you’re advocating investing in those areas that, at the present time, give the best chance for above average returns.

Is that not timing the market?[/quote]

No, that is not timing the market!

And also no, the thing above that is not what I am saying. I’ll start with that one. I’m not saying you have to invest for decades. I’m saying that you have to consider that the price for stocks is based on decades’ worth of their expected earnings. So, shorter term changes to that earnings stream should not, in theory, change their fair value all that much. (In practice, of course, it often does, but that’s a whole separate topic). But that’s not the same as saying that an investor necessarily needs to hold them for decades.

[/quote]

OK. I guess I misinterpreted this statement you made in the Coronavirus / Economy / Stock Market thread:

[quote=Rich Toscano]
Anyway back to the OP: when you buy stocks, you are buying a VERY long-term stream of earnings. Like, decades. This recession looks to be very severe, but it is short term by its very nature (at some point we contain the virus, or everyone has gotten it… this can’t go on for all that long).

So as bad as this recession may be, it’s hard to see it moving the dial all that much on the DECADES worth of earnings that determine what stocks are actually worth.

[/quote]

[svelte]

. dupe .

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=scaredyclassic]ah, you’re right. i do in my heart believe there is some reality that things have to come back to.

i think my statements are just evidence that i’ve finally capitulated to the bulls, which is an extremely bearish sign.

here’s what i find difficult personally, and why i think it’s important to automatic invest. sometimes good things happen to you, repeatedly, and you pile up much more cash than you might have expected. it’s very difficult to put it anywhere and to wait for “value”. where if you’re just on a robot invest situation,a nd everything is set every month, there’s no more thinking.

it feels like when you are stuck with a lot of cash, you by default become kind of market timer, even if it’s a relatively long term investment because you sit there waiting to pull a trigger. but that’s not really market timing, that’s just being afraid to commit to the buy portion of buy a nd hold on a given day with a large amount of money.[/quote]

I think systematic investing is good and it’s smart that you’ve found a way to automate it… that reduces the chance of making emotional decisions.

But I do want to clarify one thing. I’m not thinking in terms of “investing” vs “not investing” as a binary thing. There’s a world of investments out there and at any given time, some are probably priced for decent returns. So it’s more a question of “investing in what?” I’m hoping that having made that distinction, some of the things I said will make more sense.

[The-Shoveler]

Another day another up day on wall street LOL

I don’t have FOMO (OK maybe a little) but I am actually much better off if the real economy takes off like a rocket even if I miss the rally.

[The-Shoveler]

duplicate

[ltsddd]

sheesh…that’s good timing on me…looks like small caps is up another 3-4% today. That’s almost +10% since I got out.

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsddd]sheesh…that’s good timing on me…looks like small caps is up another 3-4% today. That’s almost +10% since I got out.[/quote]

You know I use to feel bad about it when things like this happen… But a wise friend keeps reminding me… You cannot lose money by always taking your profit early .

The unexpected job hiring definitely caught people by surprise. I sold some not all S&P yesterday. it’s ok. you made some money, who cares if you got that last leg or not.

You bought when things were discounted during the covid scare, you sold after booking a profit. Keep in mind some people took no action. I’m sure you are doing well, Good job.

Happy Furlow Friday!

[ltsddd]

I am surprised that the jobs number would move the market that much. But like I said in another thread, the market is biased towards good news. I was thinking of selling into the rally today, but decided against it. I sleep well with the current 75/25 (bonds vs stocks) allocation.

[The-Shoveler]

I keep having to remind myself, I just missed out on the bonus rally, ( I was out last Feb) + I did manage to get about 10% of rally off bottom before chickening out.

[Coronita]

Dont feel bad. I bought carnival cruises a few weeks ago at $12-13 I think, I forget exactly, but it was the low teens. Then sold it at $16… It’s $22 today.

Yup, can’t win them all.

I think that is why my dad makes a killing. Never sold a share Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft since 80ies and 90ies. Lucky dude

Good news is that Moderna is at $57, heh heh

Please don’t get a crazy idea to short Tesla

[zk]

[quote=Coronita]

Yup, can’t win them all.

[/quote]

I considered buying a SFR rental in 2012. I did some other stuff instead and didn’t end up buying until 2014. Sold it in 2018. I made about 70k less than I would have if I’d bought in 2012. I was kicking myself, and my agent said, “you don’t have a crystal ball.”

Yeah. I don’t. If I did I’d be a billionaire.

Can’t win ’em all.

[ltsddd]

[quote=Coronita]Please don’t get a crazy idea to short Tesla[/quote]

No. But I did short 4k of OXY around 19.6. Sweating bullets for a while when it poked through 20. Went out cut a couple floor tiles, checked again and it was down to 19.1x. Bought to cover. Good last couple days day-shorting SMAR and OXY. I am done for the day.

[davelj]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

But isn’t that just hubris. Basically you are saying, be smarter than the marketplace, find the opportunity everyone else missed, in a marketplace that adjusts prices by the nanosecond, and which sets prices based on all possible knowable information, including everyone in the world, the smartest, most informed, best capitalized people. There is realistically no way to be smarter than them, is there?

auto investing in an index fund is far more humble and realistic, isnt it?[/quote]

I don’t think there’s a great deal of hubris in dramatically de-risking when valuations are over 2 standard deviations from the historical mean. We have plenty of historical data to back up what happens from these levels.

Arguably… isn’t there just as much hubris in owning stocks at nosebleed valuations and simply assuming that your future return is going to be good because… stocks?

But, yes, most folks should just index and deal with the volatility. Unfortunately, most of these folks can… until they can’t.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=davelj][quote=scaredyclassic]

But isn’t that just hubris. Basically you are saying, be smarter than the marketplace, find the opportunity everyone else missed, in a marketplace that adjusts prices by the nanosecond, and which sets prices based on all possible knowable information, including everyone in the world, the smartest, most informed, best capitalized people. There is realistically no way to be smarter than them, is there?

auto investing in an index fund is far more humble and realistic, isnt it?[/quote]

I don’t think there’s a great deal of hubris in dramatically de-risking when valuations are over 2 standard deviations from the historical mean. We have plenty of historical data to back up what happens from these levels.

Arguably… isn’t there just as much hubris in owning stocks at nosebleed valuations and simply assuming that your future return is going to be good because… stocks?

But, yes, most folks should just index and deal with the volatility. Unfortunately, most of these folks can… until they can’t.[/quote]

True. Very true.

Pretty much anything we do we do because we think we know a bit more.

[Author]

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