Sell

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

I just checked CarGurus for pricing on a used rolls. Saw under 10k mileage 2017 for just 209k. Peanuts! Every fancy car now is 100 to 200k. Flu can drive a rolls, no prob.[/quote]

I have no interest in an expensive car. I like my miatas just fine… As the saying goes. Miata is always the answer.[/quote]

Should I get a new one? I need another car

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Long term care is the killer.

Funny story…my mom paid for long term care ins. For years. Needs help now. Keeps refusing care workers. Doesn’t like people around! Prefers to struggle on her own…

Seems kind of hilarious to have paid all these years for help you now refuse.

I guess if things get worse…[/quote]

yup, and sadly most people don’t have it. I think it’s too late for me to get it. Perhaps it’s better to invest in a Glock when it comes to that point.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Long term care is the killer.

Funny story…my mom paid for long term care ins. For years. Needs help now. Keeps refusing care workers. Doesn’t like people around! Prefers to struggle on her own…

Seems kind of hilarious to have paid all these years for help you now refuse.

I guess if things get worse…[/quote]

My mom’s story for about a decade until it wasnt and then the LTC insurance was of huge benefit

[sdrealtor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn [/quote]

More than anything this thread confirms for me two key lessons:
1) It’s extremely difficult to predict the future of markets and the economy.
2) Even if you do predict, timing is everything.[/quote]

I’ll add 3 and 4

3) Change comes slower and less than even the most pessimistic prediction. There is a huge bias toward the status quo and balance in the universe
4)The passage of time has awesome power to make insurmountable problems slowly go away

[gzz]

Payment of dividends over many years is a signal that the company has a very secure stream of actual cash profits.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]Long term care is the killer.

Funny story…my mom paid for long term care ins. For years. Needs help now. Keeps refusing care workers. Doesn’t like people around! Prefers to struggle on her own…

Seems kind of hilarious to have paid all these years for help you now refuse.

I guess if things get worse…[/quote]

yup, and sadly most people don’t have it. I think it’s too late for me to get it. Perhaps it’s better to invest in a Glock when it comes to that point.[/quote]

Agree. I don’t love life that much. On the other hand I am a scaredycat. Not sure on firearm choice for suicide. Prob. Should research that. I’d want something economical of course, but not unreliable. Maybe go with a used model? I’m not sure. The internet seems full of DONT DO IT info, when I search this question, as opposed to practical advice.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]Payment of dividends over many years is a signal that the company has a very secure stream of actual cash profits.[/quote]

Right but that fact should be in the stock price…like, correspondingly lower. The net expected total return, in an efficient market should be the same as a growth stock.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

I just checked CarGurus for pricing on a used rolls. Saw under 10k mileage 2017 for just 209k. Peanuts! Every fancy car now is 100 to 200k. Flu can drive a rolls, no prob.[/quote]

I have no interest in an expensive car. I like my miatas just fine… As the saying goes. Miata is always the answer.[/quote]

Should I get a new one? I need another car[/quote]

Yes… actually…My goal is to get one of each generation
NA, NB, NC, ND and the Fiat 124 …

I’ve got 2 out of 5.

I like the ND, but the manual transmission is a little weak. I already snapped mine at 20k miles racing it. I do have a blower on it, so Mazda North America denied my warranty claim. Fortunately, Edelbrock coughed up and paid for most of the replacement cost. There’s a company called Walters Motorsports out in Gainsville that rebuilds these with hardened internals. But we don’t know if that will help. I’m piloting their stage 2 transmission and one of the first with a blower on the motor that will exercise how well the rebuild is… If it breaks, the owner promised I just need to send it back to him and he’ll rebuild it again, both pay for shipping respective ways.

If you don’t want to deal with the weak transmission. You can consider the Fiat 124, which is basically a Fiata. Fiats are usually piss poor in the reliability deparmtent but most of the car is Mazda except for the engine, and the engine is one of Fiat’s bulletproof engines so you shouldn’t have a problem there…. The transmission Fiat chose was to use the previous NC miata’s transmission, so actually the Fiat 124 is a lot strong and more reliable than the ND Miatas. The issue with the Fiat 124 is the turbo motor is a little laggy, so you probably want to get it reprogrammed and get the sports exhaust for it too. Brian Goodwin from Goodwin Racing in Chula Vista can hook you up.

The fiata 124 is out of production, so finding one might be hard. The ND miata i would just get new…since the preowned ones are almost as expensive as new ones.

The first generation NA’s have turned into a more or less a collectors item from a cheap 2 seater, so I wouldn’t try to get one. They use to be cheap, fairly reliable and easy to fix, but too many people trying to trick them out and a decent one now runs $7-8k and if you have a low mileage aniversary addition, they cost as much as a new ND miata.

I think a good balance would be the NB miata (second generation). It’s more refined than than the NA, and doesn’t weigh as much as the NC (which really has a ford motor). Try to get one before MY2000, because past MY2000, they put in a 2 stage catalytic, and you can’t ever trick that out… Pre-2000, you can still stick a supercharger or turbo on it and get it CARBed. The NA’s you can also stick a SC in it. I got mine from Fastforward Superchargers. It’s also possible for the NA to shove a crate motor LS3 V8 and get that carb’d. That’s on my todo list if ever have time… Flyin Miata use to sell turnover conversion kits for that.

[Anonymous]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

Inflation, investment risk…40 years is too long to be set. With just a couple million, a man is essentially a pauper. At 8 million, maybe middle class.

They key element for happiness is Todo better than your peers.maybe thats why piggington depresses me[/quote]

Well inflation is surely the biggest risk. But if you have 8mil net worth today you are most definitely a one percenter. Just doesn’t feel like it living in San Diego perhaps.

[scaredyclassic]

I drive very gently and slowly. The transmission will be fine. I am the slowest guy anywhere. New Miata seem rather cheap.

https://www.thetrace.org/2016/09/national-suicide-prevention-month-i-shot-myself-in-the-head-and-survived/

I really would rather just live than fail at a gun suicide. I’ve always thought it’d be best to be on a raft far fr shore, tie a weight on you, shoot raft, shoot self.

Of course,. I could have a change of heart between the raft shooting and the suicide.

Dammit. Maybe shoot self off the golden gate bridge?

I think at the end of the day suicides just not for me.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]

The OP is very bright guy, certainly far smarter than I about financial markets. But one thing I’ve learned is that “being right” is not always being “right”. You can concoct a chain of thought that makes all the sense in the world to you and others while being dead wrong. More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn

Oh and cute bromance guys piling on together[/quote]

We already know where he got it wrong. He miscalculated the power and ability of the Fed to double down on the kitchen sink support i.e. BUY EVERYTHING. But the final chapter has yet to be written. Maybe we will re-visit this thread in 15 years and see what happened.[/quote]

In the long run we are all dead and Im not so sure I’ll be here in 15.

Enjoy me while I last![/quote]

I’ll agree with you there, gotta live in the moment. All of our various predictions are pointless because death is the only certainty. I for one hope you are still around in 15 years though.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I drive very gently and slowly. The transmission will be fine. I am the slowest guy anywhere. New Miata seem rather cheap.

https://www.thetrace.org/2016/09/national-suicide-prevention-month-i-shot-myself-in-the-head-and-survived/

I really would rather just live than fail at a gun suicide. I’ve always thought it’d be best to be on a raft far fr shore, tie a weight on you, shoot raft, shoot self.

Of course,. I could have a change of heart between the raft shooting and the suicide.

Dammit. Maybe shoot self off the golden gate bridge?

I think at the end of the day suicides just not for me.[/quote]

New miatas are cheap. Softtop cheaper than hardtop. The other thing is, if you don’t care, you don’t need to get a manual transmission. Automatics are more reliable than manual in this generation. They don’t break.

Added bonus of miatas. Sorry, I can’t pick you up and take your friends… Only 2 seats…sorry

Also funner car than minis imho.

One other problem. If your taller than 6′, may not be a car for you…it won’t be comfortable.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]I drive very gently and slowly. The transmission will be fine. I am the slowest guy anywhere. New Miata seem rather cheap.

https://www.thetrace.org/2016/09/national-suicide-prevention-month-i-shot-myself-in-the-head-and-survived/

I really would rather just live than fail at a gun suicide. I’ve always thought it’d be best to be on a raft far fr shore, tie a weight on you, shoot raft, shoot self.

Of course,. I could have a change of heart between the raft shooting and the suicide.

Dammit. Maybe shoot self off the golden gate bridge?

I think at the end of the day suicides just not for me.[/quote]

New miatas are cheap. Softtop cheaper than hardtop. The other thing is, if you don’t care, you don’t need to get a manual transmission. Automatics are more reliable than manual in this generation. They don’t break.

Added bonus of miatas. Sorry, I can’t pick you up and take your friends… Only 2 seats…sorry

Also funner car than minis imho.[/quote]

I like manual transmissions because they were cheaper on my 89 Honda. Also it’s kind of fun to have a sort of skill. One kid can’t drive stick, so it’d be unborrowable to him….

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]I drive very gently and slowly. The transmission will be fine. I am the slowest guy anywhere. New Miata seem rather cheap.

https://www.thetrace.org/2016/09/national-suicide-prevention-month-i-shot-myself-in-the-head-and-survived/

I really would rather just live than fail at a gun suicide. I’ve always thought it’d be best to be on a raft far fr shore, tie a weight on you, shoot raft, shoot self.

Of course,. I could have a change of heart between the raft shooting and the suicide.

Dammit. Maybe shoot self off the golden gate bridge?

I think at the end of the day suicides just not for me.[/quote]

New miatas are cheap. Softtop cheaper than hardtop. The other thing is, if you don’t care, you don’t need to get a manual transmission. Automatics are more reliable than manual in this generation. They don’t break.

Added bonus of miatas. Sorry, I can’t pick you up and take your friends… Only 2 seats…sorry

Also funner car than minis imho.

One other problem. If your taller than 6′, may not be a car for you…it won’t be comfortable.[/quote]

69.5 inches. Very slender. Fuck it, maybe I should go get one.

Could be 69 or 70 inches. So much depends on posture

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]

The OP is very bright guy, certainly far smarter than I about financial markets. But one thing I’ve learned is that “being right” is not always being “right”. You can concoct a chain of thought that makes all the sense in the world to you and others while being dead wrong. More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn

Oh and cute bromance guys piling on together[/quote]

We already know where he got it wrong. He miscalculated the power and ability of the Fed to double down on the kitchen sink support i.e. BUY EVERYTHING. But the final chapter has yet to be written. Maybe we will re-visit this thread in 15 years and see what happened.[/quote]

In the long run we are all dead and Im not so sure I’ll be here in 15.

Enjoy me while I last![/quote]

I’ll agree with you there, gotta live in the moment. All of our various predictions are pointless because death is the only certainty. I for one hope you are still around in 15 years though.[/quote]

I just don’t see myself dying.

The Buddhists explained it to me. There’s really no separate self. The world is in constant flux, nothing really dies it just manifests in different form..

I’m actually unclear whether there is an I to die.

I left them a bit of money in my will andthey sent me a thank you calligraphy poster that says A CLOUD NEVER DIES.

Clever little buddhists
I love them so.

Good news. Deerpark Buddhist monastery in Escondido is slowly reopening, requiring proof of vaccination to come be mindful there

[Author]

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