Sell

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Reality][quote=sdrealtor]Is a year long enough?[/quote]

I can’t find any of your posts disagreeing with the OP at the time of the prediction, yet you continue to bring this thread up with “nah nah nah nah nah” type replies.

I’m not here to defend the OP but a year is certainly not long term. Nobody knows what will happen from here. The only thing I’m certain about is that selling today is better than selling a year ago but that means nothing about the future.

Can you take it as well as you can dish it out?[/quote]

You mean like when he digged up a 15 year old thread just so he could crap on poway seller?[/quote]

#fakenews

I can take plenty and have since day one. Much of the discussion between myself and other forum members took place other places then on this thread which you are not a part of. These posts are brought up for two reasons none of which you seem to get. They are to spur conversations and to revisit the negative psychology some are afflicted by. I like to make money, others here like to make money and discuss ways to do so. We like to learn. The PS comment was an afterthought I gave little thought to and just came to mind when I read through tha thread as I have since run into people that knew her personally. You’ve given it far more thought and mileage than I ever did. Hoped to hear from more old timers and how they took advantage of that opportunity of a lifetime

The OP is very bright guy, certainly far smarter than I about financial markets. But one thing I’ve learned is that “being right” is not always being “right”. You can concoct a chain of thought that makes all the sense in the world to you and others while being dead wrong. More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn

Oh and cute bromance guys piling on together

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]For me, I’m not fully disengaging from the markets. I’m just moving money around to buy hard assets because I like things that are tangible. I like property. I don’t really get stocks,bonds, indexes, and certainly can’t live in them. Also, I don’t care as much as if the value of the hard assets move up or down. What I care about is can each year, these assets generate a consistent return so that if I decide to quit my job or get fired or both, I continue to still have a steady stream.

Once I have a steady stream of income the replaces my engineering “salary”, I don’t care whether those assets go up and down as long as my annual income is roughly the same. I’m done at that point. Getting close. The thing I’m not convinced about high quality stocks that pay a dividend. is they are high quality…until they aren’t….Those banking on dividends from ATT were recently given a dose of reality ala dividend cut. so not exactly predictable.[/quote]

You are definitely on the right track. And avoiding stocks is great for your mental health, stock market is nothing but a casino. I am curious though, when it comes to “retiring” from your engineering job, why do you feel you need to have enough rental income to fully replace your salary? From the way you talk you could live pretty well right now without the job, and if you later realized you needed/wanted more income, you could always go back to work.[/quote]

1. I want to generate about $150k/year from cash flow and $50k/year in passive income from dividends, as my fvckyou money. Not quite there yet or combinations there of.

2. Any surplus upfront is extra cushion for bad times that could happen over the next 30+years for which things underperform…Hence, if I can continue working and drawing a nice compensation package without being killed and overworked to death is extra financial capacity to frontload more of that fvck you up front with a larger fvckyou, so if somewhere along the line of that 30+years of retirement, things underperform, I don’t need to go back to work ever when I’m older. ever…

3. I like working now, even if my current company is frustrating. So I’d like to work as long as I can while I still can.

4. I haven’t figured what else I would rather be doing right now, and don’t want to stay home and get obese.

5. Medical insurance is another consideration, when you have a preexisting condition. Things *could* get incredibly expensive once you get off of a group insurance plan.

6. I’d like to do the bare minimum so I get my maximum social security benefit when I can get it. Because at least in principle, I paid for my social security taxes all along, I should be able to get the full benefit… Maybe that means taking a cushy government job or something along the lines. Don’t know.

I don’t think I will be one of those people that will have $30-50million in the bank. That’s just not my luck and ain’t going to happen based on my past near misses with large scores… I think reality is I’ll probably end up somewhere around the $8-10million by the time I’m 55-60. So that leaves a moderate lifestyle, not necessary luxurious, again given what I could possibly be spending on a pre-existing condition, assuming no/shitty insurance coverage.

1 MRI + 1 GI scope exam annually costs roughly $30k and $25k respectively without insurance, so that’s a $55k/year bill that I need to foot alone assuming nothing else…. x2 if my kid needs the same thing done….That’s with after tax dollars, (well I think above a certain amount 7% AGI, medical expenses are itemized deductions).

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]

The OP is very bright guy, certainly far smarter than I about financial markets. But one thing I’ve learned is that “being right” is not always being “right”. You can concoct a chain of thought that makes all the sense in the world to you and others while being dead wrong. More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn

Oh and cute bromance guys piling on together[/quote]

We already know where he got it wrong. He miscalculated the power and ability of the Fed to double down on the kitchen sink support i.e. BUY EVERYTHING. But the final chapter has yet to be written. Maybe we will re-visit this thread in 15 years and see what happened.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]For me, I’m not fully disengaging from the markets. I’m just moving money around to buy hard assets because I like things that are tangible. I like property. I don’t really get stocks,bonds, indexes, and certainly can’t live in them. Also, I don’t care as much as if the value of the hard assets move up or down. What I care about is can each year, these assets generate a consistent return so that if I decide to quit my job or get fired or both, I continue to still have a steady stream.

Once I have a steady stream of income the replaces my engineering “salary”, I don’t care whether those assets go up and down as long as my annual income is roughly the same. I’m done at that point. Getting close. The thing I’m not convinced about high quality stocks that pay a dividend. is they are high quality…until they aren’t….Those banking on dividends from ATT were recently given a dose of reality ala dividend cut. so not exactly predictable.[/quote]

You are definitely on the right track. And avoiding stocks is great for your mental health, stock market is nothing but a casino. I am curious though, when it comes to “retiring” from your engineering job, why do you feel you need to have enough rental income to fully replace your salary? From the way you talk you could live pretty well right now without the job, and if you later realized you needed/wanted more income, you could always go back to work.[/quote]

1. I want to generate about $150k/year from cash flow and $50k/year in passive income from dividends, as my fvckyou money. Not quite there yet or combinations there of.

2. Any surplus upfront is extra cushion for bad times that could happen over the next 30+years for which things underperform…Hence, if I can continue working and drawing a nice compensation package without being killed and overworked to death is extra financial capacity to frontload more of that fvck you up front with a larger fvckyou, so if somewhere along the line of that 30+years of retirement, things underperform, I don’t need to go back to work ever when I’m older. ever…

3. I like working now, even if my current company is frustrating. So I’d like to work as long as I can while I still can.

4. I haven’t figured what else I would rather be doing right now, and don’t want to stay home and get obese.

5. Medical insurance is another consideration, when you have a preexisting condition. Things *could* get incredibly expensive once you get off of a group insurance plan.

6. I’d like to do the bare minimum so I get my maximum social security benefit when I can get it. Because at least in principle, I paid for my social security taxes all along, I should be able to get the full benefit… Maybe that means taking a cushy government job or something along the lines. Don’t know.

I don’t think I will be one of those people that will have $30-50million in the bank. That’s just not my luck and ain’t going to happen based on my past near misses with large scores… I think reality is I’ll probably end up somewhere around the $8-10million by the time I’m 55-60. So that leaves a moderate lifestyle, not necessary luxurious, again given what I could possibly be spending on a pre-existing condition, assuming no/shitty insurance coverage.

1 MRI + 1 GI scope exam annually costs roughly $30k and $25k respectively without insurance, so that’s a $55k/year bill that I need to foot alone assuming nothing else…. x2 if my kid needs the same thing done….That’s with after tax dollars, (well I think above a certain amount 7% AGI, medical expenses are itemized deductions).[/quote]

What about medical tourism in Asia. Looks like gi work is under 1k.

[Anonymous]

With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]

I’ve spent the last 2 decades working to do the same albeit more towards dividend stocks. I think the key with those is a variety and looking for reasonable dividend rates. I hold some ATT but more of others which pay far less. In a conversation with a friend a few weeks who was high on ATT, I explained that 7% divended rates are not normal and usually a sign the dividend is at risk, the stock price is at risk or both. While cutting it in half would not make someone who bought it for a 7% return happy, cut it in half and it is then in the range of reasonable. Hopefully that would be used to pay down some of the debt burden that has held the stock price back. I invest for total return and from that view would be fine seeing it cut in half and growth restored.[/quote]

Good point. I’m not abandoning the dividend strategy even with ATT cutting dividends. But what I am also concerned about is over-estimating the safety of dividends in general at a company over the next 30+years….If the business performs badly, the company’s stock end up tanking and dividends get cut. Doubly whammy… So for me, wrong decision would be not to to invest at all. But I do think investing in stocks with a dividend is still some measurable risk that I need to take.

Real estate isn’t fullproof either. There’s two ways for it to underperform too. House price falls or rent prices fall. But I don’t think there’s quite as big a correlation between house prices falling and rent prices falling as there is when a company performs badly and both the stock price tanks and the dividend gets cut…Rentals, obviously have other issues…Vacancy rates and repairs other variable costs. So it too isn’t a guarantee…

But that’s the point for me. Nothing is a guarantee, hence I want to spread the risk…To reduce the risk of a total collapse of all passive income and being forced back to returning to work to earn a living when I’m old and can’t/don’t want to…

I guess it’s also possible for the stock market to tank, house prices to tank, dividends get cut to 0, and rent prices tank all at the same time…That’s what I called the doomsday scenario…I don’t plan for the doomsday scenario, because imho, if doomsday happens, everyone is unversially and equally screwed more or less the same way… And relatively speaking, I’m still ok, because at least I’m free and clear on at least 1 property where i can live. So there’s no point for me to plan for a doomsday scenario.

[scaredyclassic]

Aren’t the dividends priced into the stock?it’s difficult for me to understand why a non guaranteed dividend is of any utility in deciding investment strategy. The dividend is already calculated in. In theory, efficient markets would look forward to expected total return on any stock, calculate the risk and price accordingly.

In theory.

Nowadays, it would seemwith everyone chasing yield, dividend stocks might sell at an irrational premium.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

Inflation, investment risk…40 years is too long to be set. With just a couple million, a man is essentially a pauper. At 8 million, maybe middle class.

They key element for happiness is Todo better than your peers.maybe thats why piggington depresses me

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Aren’t the dividends priced into the stock?it’s difficult for me to understand why a non guaranteed dividend is of any utility in deciding investment strategy. The dividend is already calculated in. In theory, efficient markets would look forward to expected total return, calculate the risk and price accordingly[/quote]

I don’t know… I’m dumb… I’m just lemmings sheep…
Bah bah bahhh

i just think of all those people that owned BP thinking nothing would happen to the dividends and poof one tiny oil spill on the east coast, and BP dividend vaporizes…

Or Chesapeake Energy: natural gas market goes south, and poof BK….

If I’m only concerned about something a few years, then yeah, perhaps the likelihood of a company disaster happening while you own the stock is probably low. But holding something like 20-30 years. I don’t know….Seems like a lot of time for something major to go wrong…

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

I just checked CarGurus for pricing on a used rolls. Saw under 10k mileage 2017 for just 209k. Peanuts! Every fancy car now is 100 to 200k. Flu can drive a rolls, no prob.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

Inflation, investment risk…40 years is too long to be set. With just a couple million, a man is essentially a pauper. At 8 million, maybe middle class.

They key element for happiness is Todo better than your peers.maybe thats why piggington depresses me[/quote]

rising health care costs, rising insurance costs, possibility of needing long term care. possibly of a family member needing something or both…

Lots of possible ways to end up bankrupt even with an initial arsenal that you planned against it.

Like I said, as much as a car guy I am, you don’t see me driving a $100k+ car around. Wouldn’t be very financially responsible….Inherently, when it comes to myself. I’m cheap. Well, that if and I had a faster car, I wouldn’t need to make a financial plan because I probably would end up jack knifed and dead.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=deadzone]With 8-10 million I at that age I just don’t see why anyone would have to work if they didn’t want to.

I mean even if you earned nothing on your investments, you could pull 200K a year for 40 years and that doesn’t even take into account ss or your rental income.

that would allow for a pretty good lifestyle in my book, maybe just not driving Rolls.[/quote]

I just checked CarGurus for pricing on a used rolls. Saw under 10k mileage 2017 for just 209k. Peanuts! Every fancy car now is 100 to 200k. Flu can drive a rolls, no prob.[/quote]

I have no interest in an expensive car. I like my miatas just fine… As the saying goes. Miata is always the answer.

[scaredyclassic]

Long term care is the killer.

Funny story…my mom paid for long term care ins. For years. Needs help now. Keeps refusing care workers. Doesn’t like people around! Prefers to struggle on her own…

Seems kind of hilarious to have paid all these years for help you now refuse.

I guess if things get worse…

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn [/quote]

More than anything this thread confirms for me two key lessons:
1) It’s extremely difficult to predict the future of markets and the economy.
2) Even if you do predict, timing is everything.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]

The OP is very bright guy, certainly far smarter than I about financial markets. But one thing I’ve learned is that “being right” is not always being “right”. You can concoct a chain of thought that makes all the sense in the world to you and others while being dead wrong. More than anything I’d love to hear from him where he got this so wrong. He gave himself an extension on his original post until the y/e so that is unlikely to come anytime soon. At the same time much of what he was so certain of (1/3 of business gone by 12/20) has not come to pass so parts could be disected already. I think its a good opportunity to learn

Oh and cute bromance guys piling on together[/quote]

We already know where he got it wrong. He miscalculated the power and ability of the Fed to double down on the kitchen sink support i.e. BUY EVERYTHING. But the final chapter has yet to be written. Maybe we will re-visit this thread in 15 years and see what happened.[/quote]

In the long run we are all dead and Im not so sure I’ll be here in 15.

Enjoy me while I last!

[Author]

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