Sell

[svelte]

[quote=Escoguy]

And if you’re in a position to, get takeout as much as you can, tip generously, and try to be a friend. I do appreciate this forum.[/quote]

We have always tipped generously and continue to do so. I like that better than donating to charity. By tipping well I’m helping someone who is actually working as hard s they can and 100% of my “donation” goes where I want it to go.

I’ve discovered an interesting thing getting takeout food from our favorite spots this year. Some of the food that I thought was great is really not so hot. The atmosphere must have enhanced the taste and when that is stripped away reality set in. Some of the restaurant food is as good at home as in person, but it isn’t universal.

[svelte]

[quote=Reality]
Mortgage forbearance will end at some point. So will eviction moratoriums. What will be the fallout to commercial real estate with so many companies transitioning to remote work? [/quote]

These are the things that are contributing to the current rosy stock market picture and have me questioning what will happen in 2021.

Here in San Diego we lose sight of our area not being typical. In large swaths of the United States, jobs have historically been hard to come by and many people just scrape by financially each month. Put a multi-month or now even approaching a one-year hiccup in that and when all the protections are stripped away it could get very ugly. Very ugly indeed.

[gzz]

I started the year brilliantly, getting out of stocks before the covid crash, and then bargain hunting during the March lows. I also shorted shopping mall REITs before the covid crash that they still never recovered from.

After that, my worst stretch in at least 10 years, primarily from shorting Tesla and MoneyGram, which more than doubled, and shifting my longs to defensive high divided stocks that gained 10% while the rest of the market gained 30+.

I also purchased about $1,500 worth of SPY puts over the year and they expired worthless.

The point of this bearishness wasn’t that I was pessimistic, but that my real estate portfolio meant my real estate net long position was about 120% of my net worth. I felt I needed some hedges since I just don’t want to sell the RE now.

I look at tech valuations, especially business software, and they are just astounding. The companies lose money by the billions, are in competitive low barrier industries, and often are not even growing that much. P/S over 50? Sure why not.

Peloton, worth 44 billion with two unprofitable products, buying Precor, which makes the best exercise equipment in the world, for 1% of the Peloton market cap, shows how dysfunctional tech valuations are.

However, I just don’t think here’s anything to pop the bubble in the short to medium term, so might as well ride the wave.

[an]

Escoguy, I agree with you 100% and that’s exactly what I’m doing as well. I don’t see San Diego start building the amount of housing that’s needed to bring us into equilibrium. Also, with more remote work being the common place, there’s not much better place to be than San Diego when you’re talking about natural beauty and weather.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=Reality]
Mortgage forbearance will end at some point. So will eviction moratoriums. What will be the fallout to commercial real estate with so many companies transitioning to remote work? [/quote]

These are the things that are contributing to the current rosy stock market picture and have me questioning what will happen in 2021.

Here in San Diego we lose sight of our area not being typical. In large swaths of the United States, jobs have historically been hard to come by and many people just scrape by financially each month. Put a multi-month or now even approaching a one-year hiccup in that and when all the protections are stripped away it could get very ugly. Very ugly indeed.[/quote]

One thing i think that mitigates this more here but most places is that the low wage services industries were the hardest hit. The higher wage professional jobs were more likely to be furloughed a few months then back or WFH. The former is mostly the renter class while the later more likely to be homeowners. Generally speaking I am more optimistic on residential mortgage market. Who we really need to worry about and help are those on the bottom as always. Ive been tipping everywhere 25% since April and giving to every charity that asks.

[ltsddd]

Investment wise, 2020 ended up being better than I expected. The numbers:

Overall: 18.5%
Day-trading: 35% (15% came from the premiums for selling calls options)
Best/Worst Holdings: TSLA/SLB

Everything being considered I am quite happy with the results. Especially how little I was stressed out considering what a volatile year it was.

Happy New Year everyone. Let’s hope for a better year in 2021.

[Balboa]

sdrealtor, thanks for mentioning charitable giving and increasing tipping. I also hope people who are financially able are maintaining their memberships to [whatever] and supporting the people who normally provide them personal services (hair stylists, house cleaners, massage therapists etc.). These aren’t fees for service at this point if you haven’t had a haircut or gone to the gym, but direct investments in community members who have been disproportionately affected.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Balboa]sdrealtor, thanks for mentioning charitable giving and increasing tipping. I also hope people who are financially able are maintaining their memberships to [whatever] and supporting the people who normally provide them personal services (hair stylists, house cleaners, massage therapists etc.). These aren’t fees for service at this point if you haven’t had a haircut or gone to the gym, but direct investments in community members who have been disproportionately affected.[/quote]

Absoultely! I paid my housekeeper through the pandemic whether she came or not (she didnt until I let her return in late June). I gave her an extra check for Christmas like I always do. She and her husband were exposed through their daughter to Covid in October and she showed me the respect to let me know. Her husband ended up getting it, was hospitalized but is fine now. She didnt come for over a month until he was Ok and she had a clear test. She’s been with me for 20 years and is like family

Another thing I did was fill a bag with rice, beans, salsa, tomatoes and other non pershiable goods every time I went to the market to drop off at food banks. People gotta eat

[phaster]

[quote=ltsddd]Investment wise, 2020 ended up being better than I expected. The numbers:

Overall: 18.5%
Day-trading: 35% (15% came from the premiums for selling calls options)
Best/Worst Holdings: TSLA/SLB

Everything being considered I am quite happy with the results. Especially how little I was stressed out considering what a volatile year it was.

Happy New Year everyone. Let’s hope for a better year in 2021.[/quote]

percentage wise I’m pretty sure I’ve done much better than most,… have not calculated the exact YOY percentages of my portfolio but thanks to a highly concentrated position in a computer company that just released a processor that is getting rave reviews AND is expected in a few years to tell QCOM its chips will no longer be required because they have developed their own in-house solution,… ALONG w/ seed money I threw at an EV company,… I’m hopeful my luck continues

looking at the bigger picture the simple truth is,… the vast majority of people in this country don’t have the luck or luxury of a stock portfolio that grew overall at 18.5+% AND/OR had rentals in desirable (i.e. less effected neighborhoods) in 2020,…

going forward my hope is people/political-leadership find peace w/ themselves as well as one another,… the reason I say this because the only reason I think some of us were able to financially profit in the middle of a pandemic shit storm is because the global economy runs on “dollars”

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brettonwoodsagreement.asp

simple truth as I see it is, luck (i.e. being at the right place at the right time) should be considered because as I’ve seen first hand the results of mis-management can come fast and hard

[quote=Escoguy]

There may be negative consequences, but I don’t see us going full former USSR anytime soon (and I lived 15 year in 5 former soviet republics). So be vigilant, exchange investment ideas, don’t be afraid to put more skin in the game. And be damn grateful that things worked out as well as they did in-spite of everything.
[/quote]

https://www.piggington.com/after_pandemic#comment-292234

[Balboa]

I’m glad to hear everyone ended up ok! In a normal year I spread out my giving a bit more, but in 2020 the charitable donations were almost exclusively for food banks.

[sdrealtor]

And just to be complete my returns for the year were

48% on what I consider my trading account
16% on my long/set it forget account
23% blended both

The long account was flat on June 1st and trading account plus 12% so nearly all the gains came in the second half of the year. Leveraged Gold ETF and TSLA up big this morning so took profits on those and sitting 40% cash in the trading account waiting to see what happens next few days.

[ltsddd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Leveraged Gold ETF and TSLA up big this morning so took profits on those and sitting 40% cash in the trading account waiting to see what happens next few days.[/quote]

Interesting. I reduced my day-trading account from 100% stocks to about 50/50 today; and I also moved to all cash for my 401K. I have concerns on the next coming days/weeks – transition at the WH, planned protests this week, tension with Iran and the potentially bad news relating to the vaccines. If any of those concerns became a reality I expect the market to react negatively.

[sdrealtor]

I don’t have huge concerns but I see lots of things coming up that could cause volatility. I’m willing to give up some upside to eliminate some downside. I like to cruise mostly up the middle. If we get a big move down I’ll take advantage of that but my financial goals are based upon average annual gains of 6% so I take funds off the table regularly waiting for entry points on stocks I follow. Btw, my trading is done with an old 401k rolled into an IRA. That way no taxes on short term gains. I’ve got another IRA and an after tax account that are my stable long term funds

[plm]

I just don’t see how this year can be as good as last year. Never had a year so good as last year in my trading account. Problem for me is my trading account is taxable. So even though market is going down, I can’t sell without huge tax hits.

401k is in sp500 index, I don’t want to screw up my retirement and there is enough in there already that I don’t need to find outsized gains. Just going to let that sit.

Roth IRA allows me to trade tax free but there just isn’t much money in there compared to my other accounts.

Company RSU/ESPP held for so long that gains are so big now, I don’t think I can sell, just take in the dividends.

So not much I can do except for small trades and hold on and pray there isn’t a crash coming soon.

We can’t possibly get another year like last year, right?

[an]

[quote=plm]
We can’t possibly get another year like last year, right?[/quote] Never say never.

[Author]

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