Sell

[Coronita]

Can we rename this thread to “Old Timer Hangout Talking About the Stock Market? ”

Lol

[sdrealtor]

[quote=temeculaguy]Search old threads about my advice when taking stock advice here, circa 2008. Fool me once.

After the initial crash in late March/Early April I bought two cruise stocks, 3 airlines and an automaker. All at least half off, some at a far greater discount. Two days ago, after doubling my investment I sold it all, transferred my original investment back to my bank and will play with house money from here on out. Kudos to Warren Buffet’s theory about running into burning buildings. Admittedly I was nervous.

What should make anyone nervous right now is real estate described as “urban”that relies on mass transit and rental properties in jurisdictions described politically as progressive. California’s Judicial Council just kicked zero bail to the counties to decide and evictions/foreclosure moratoriums in cali will likely see the same fate. Landlords will likely be subsidizing this social experiment based on zip codes.

The world is upside down, next you’ll see Zillow factor in the political leanings of a zip code into their valuations. Some of the estimates about renters not paying are astonishing. Some of the terms from 2008 will need to be updated, “shadow inventory” will need to be renamed “blue shadow inventory.” How do I copyright a phrase? This is not a political statement, it’s an investment statement. But I chose to post so I can take full credit when Diana Olick uses that phrase, I’m still her biggest fan and will consider it an honor for her to use it. Anyone else needs permission.

Good luck piggs, investing is just math, leave your feelings out of it.[/quote]

Congrats on doing what I know you always wanted to great success.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=temeculaguy]What should make anyone nervous right now is real estate described as “urban”that relies on mass transit and rental properties in jurisdictions described politically as progressive. California’s Judicial Council just kicked zero bail to the counties to decide and evictions/foreclosure moratoriums in cali will likely see the same fate. Landlords will likely be subsidizing this social experiment based on zip codes.
[/quote]

Not sure what TV show you saw this on, but is is the accurate into.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-10/california-judges-zero-bail-coronavirus-judicial-council

I suppose Santa Monica and San Francisco are at the top is the list for a real estate crash?

[temeculaguy]

If the courts allow counties to set their own timeline when to resume evictions, San Francisco and Santa Monica might wait 6 more months. Landlords not collecting rent and unable to evict will become distressed especially if they have a mortgage on that property. It may present a buying opportunity more so in some counties than others, from an investor point of view. Whichever county or city waits the longest to resume evictions will be less favorable to investors and REITs if the next county over is evicting non payers. It might be the next fire to run into, who knows, those Santa Monica rentals might have a window where they are at a discount, not a crash. Or it may be a disaster and they might like the new “affordable housing” but I think it will be a short window. Then again, I’m not going to get cocky because I got lucky on my recent stock prediction. There will be some shifts, I just haven’t figured them all out. But times like these usually present some opportunities. I’m watching Seattle as a canary in the coal mine for clues.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks SD, I finally overcame my fear, took along time for me to act. But it wasn’t giant amounts, it was thousands and not tens of thousands. Pragmatism is a hard habit to break. Baby steps

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=temeculaguy]Thanks SD, I finally overcame my fear, took along time for me to act. But it wasn’t giant amounts, it was thousands and not tens of thousands. Pragmatism is a hard habit to break. Baby steps[/quote]

FFTB.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=temeculaguy]Thanks SD, I finally overcame my fear, took along time for me to act. But it wasn’t giant amounts, it was thousands and not tens of thousands. Pragmatism is a hard habit to break. Baby steps[/quote]

Yes but you uttered two of my favorite words and even better in combination

HOUSE….MONEY!

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy]Thanks SD, I finally overcame my fear, took along time for me to act. But it wasn’t giant amounts, it was thousands and not tens of thousands. Pragmatism is a hard habit to break. Baby steps[/quote]

Congrats! Any win is still a win. Better than no win or a loss!

Congrats again!

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy]If the courts allow counties to set their own timeline when to resume evictions, San Francisco and Santa Monica might wait 6 more months. Landlords not collecting rent and unable to evict will become distressed especially if they have a mortgage on that property. It may present a buying opportunity more so in some counties than others, from an investor point of view. Whichever county or city waits the longest to resume evictions will be less favorable to investors and REITs if the next county over is evicting non payers. It might be the next fire to run into, who knows, those Santa Monica rentals might have a window where they are at a discount, not a crash. Or it may be a disaster and they might like the new “affordable housing” but I think it will be a short window.[/quote]

That’s a good point. I’m just curious though how much of this mortgage forbearance will take place and how much of the property tax no penalty will materialize.

For example, let’s say someone stops paying rent. Fine. Landlord stops making mortgage payments and asks for a forbearance. Also stops paying property tax, which in some.
counties is now allowed without a penalty. Isn’t this sort of just like passing the buck along back to the state government and banks?

I guess it sucks for those landlords that count on the cashflow exclusively for income and have no other source of income.

BTW, I don’t think this problem is just CA. It’s going to be a problem for multiple states… I see it a bigger problem for states and locales that that depend on a specific industry that was wiped out by covid, particularly a lopsided local economy completely dependent on indoor leisure activity….if not now, later.

[saiine]

There’s no version of reality where we are not at an ATH in November for the election. It took the fed 3 months to take us from 18 to 27k, during a global pandemic and with then touting stuff like “we have unlimited ammo”.

SPY $400 calls for October gang! $13 a contract today.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=saiine]There’s no version of reality where we are not at an ATH in November for the election. [/quote]

This reminds me of my business partner’s friend who said “I’m 100% certain the market will be lower in a month” and sold everything… on March 23 (the day of the low… mkt was up 25% a month later).

If you believe you KNOW what the market will do over a short term time frame… you are fooling yourself, my friend.

[livinincali]

[quote=Coronita]
BTW, I don’t think this problem is just CA. It’s going to be a problem for multiple states… I see it a bigger problem for states and locales that that depend on a specific industry that was wiped out by covid, particularly a lopsided local economy completely dependent on indoor leisure activity….if not now, later.[/quote]

States and counties are always the last to feel the effects of an economic downturn. It’s usually about a year behind the general populace. I worked for a county related company back in the 2000 internet crash and they were fine up until mid 2001 and then things went south real fast.

This current situation might not feel that bad if you’re working from home in software or something but it’s going to get really bad soon. I’d be surprised if the market doesn’t take a 80% plunge in the next 2 years. Somebody is going to get in trouble with liquidity. Ie. commercial real estate or REITs.

[Coronita]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/finance-isnt-worth-losing-your-life-over-the-heartbreaking-story-of-a-rookie-trader-who-racked-up-700000-in-debt-2020-06-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=saiine]There’s no version of reality where we are not at an ATH in November for the election. [/quote]

This reminds me of my business partner’s friend who said “I’m 100% certain the market will be lower in a month” and sold everything… on March 23 (the day of the low… mkt was up 25% a month later).

If you believe you KNOW what the market will do over a short term time frame… you are fooling yourself, my friend.[/quote]

It seems like there sometimes very rarely a sure th8ng.

I can think of only 1.

1 day go short sp500 after 9/11.

[saiine]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=saiine]There’s no version of reality where we are not at an ATH in November for the election. [/quote]

This reminds me of my business partner’s friend who said “I’m 100% certain the market will be lower in a month” and sold everything… on March 23 (the day of the low… mkt was up 25% a month later).

If you believe you KNOW what the market will do over a short term time frame… you are fooling yourself, my friend.[/quote]

You are correct Rich, but I ain’t giving up my calls (yet) 🙂

Today was some of the most obscene market fuckery. Feds now buying individual Corp bonds. I can’t wait for them to announce that they will start buying all Robinhood portfolios which solely contain Hertz.

Strange times we are living in..

Oh and if you didn’t already realize that covid is cancelled, this should help https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-latest-coronavirus-cases-usa-update-testing-numbers-a9567566.html

[Author]

Posts