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briansd1.
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June 30, 2009 at 6:25 AM #423006June 30, 2009 at 6:42 AM #422258
Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
2. what about the 14 million vacant homes in America? That’s at least 10 months of supply and, according to Rich and others, there is downward price pressure anytime there is more than 8 months of supply
ie, lots of ‘have to sell’ inventory
3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?
~
seems like people either aren’t aware of these little details or they are choosing to ignore/deny them
oh well, knife-catchers are part of the process …[/quote]
As for voluntary sales, I would not expect them to be like the foreclosure inventory at all, it’s just not the same.
They will only sell if it make sense to them to do so, or they will give the home to their kids or stay put.
To the 14 million vacant homes , Yes some of these will come on the market, I would say a very small percentage are in socal coastal that are not second or vacation homes that will stay that way.
June 30, 2009 at 6:42 AM #422487Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
2. what about the 14 million vacant homes in America? That’s at least 10 months of supply and, according to Rich and others, there is downward price pressure anytime there is more than 8 months of supply
ie, lots of ‘have to sell’ inventory
3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?
~
seems like people either aren’t aware of these little details or they are choosing to ignore/deny them
oh well, knife-catchers are part of the process …[/quote]
As for voluntary sales, I would not expect them to be like the foreclosure inventory at all, it’s just not the same.
They will only sell if it make sense to them to do so, or they will give the home to their kids or stay put.
To the 14 million vacant homes , Yes some of these will come on the market, I would say a very small percentage are in socal coastal that are not second or vacation homes that will stay that way.
June 30, 2009 at 6:42 AM #422761Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
2. what about the 14 million vacant homes in America? That’s at least 10 months of supply and, according to Rich and others, there is downward price pressure anytime there is more than 8 months of supply
ie, lots of ‘have to sell’ inventory
3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?
~
seems like people either aren’t aware of these little details or they are choosing to ignore/deny them
oh well, knife-catchers are part of the process …[/quote]
As for voluntary sales, I would not expect them to be like the foreclosure inventory at all, it’s just not the same.
They will only sell if it make sense to them to do so, or they will give the home to their kids or stay put.
To the 14 million vacant homes , Yes some of these will come on the market, I would say a very small percentage are in socal coastal that are not second or vacation homes that will stay that way.
June 30, 2009 at 6:42 AM #422829Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
2. what about the 14 million vacant homes in America? That’s at least 10 months of supply and, according to Rich and others, there is downward price pressure anytime there is more than 8 months of supply
ie, lots of ‘have to sell’ inventory
3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?
~
seems like people either aren’t aware of these little details or they are choosing to ignore/deny them
oh well, knife-catchers are part of the process …[/quote]
As for voluntary sales, I would not expect them to be like the foreclosure inventory at all, it’s just not the same.
They will only sell if it make sense to them to do so, or they will give the home to their kids or stay put.
To the 14 million vacant homes , Yes some of these will come on the market, I would say a very small percentage are in socal coastal that are not second or vacation homes that will stay that way.
June 30, 2009 at 6:42 AM #422991Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
2. what about the 14 million vacant homes in America? That’s at least 10 months of supply and, according to Rich and others, there is downward price pressure anytime there is more than 8 months of supply
ie, lots of ‘have to sell’ inventory
3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?
~
seems like people either aren’t aware of these little details or they are choosing to ignore/deny them
oh well, knife-catchers are part of the process …[/quote]
As for voluntary sales, I would not expect them to be like the foreclosure inventory at all, it’s just not the same.
They will only sell if it make sense to them to do so, or they will give the home to their kids or stay put.
To the 14 million vacant homes , Yes some of these will come on the market, I would say a very small percentage are in socal coastal that are not second or vacation homes that will stay that way.
June 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM #422288UCGal
Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
[/quote]
On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.
These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.
June 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM #422517Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
[/quote]
On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.
These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.
June 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM #422791Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
[/quote]
On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.
These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.
June 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM #422859Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
[/quote]
On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.
These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.
June 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM #423021Participant[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?
many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses
ie, more shadow inventory
[/quote]
On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.
These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.
June 30, 2009 at 9:01 AM #422338briansd1
Guest[quote=AN]People who are like you and don’t like to fix up your house, I see it pretty run down, but they’re still living in there. So they probably don’t spend that much time and $. Others, like me, love to modify/remodel our homes. It’s a joy/hobby. Hobby cost money, but it’s fun and fulfilling. I guess you’ll never understand that. [/quote]
People who live in run-down houses are not spending any money on maintenance now. But they’ll spend money on maintenance later, or they will pay it in lost equity.
I see house maintenance, painting, etc. as work. Work can be fulfilling and enjoyable. But I’d rather make money at it than spend money on it.
To each his own.
June 30, 2009 at 9:01 AM #422567Guest[quote=AN]People who are like you and don’t like to fix up your house, I see it pretty run down, but they’re still living in there. So they probably don’t spend that much time and $. Others, like me, love to modify/remodel our homes. It’s a joy/hobby. Hobby cost money, but it’s fun and fulfilling. I guess you’ll never understand that. [/quote]
People who live in run-down houses are not spending any money on maintenance now. But they’ll spend money on maintenance later, or they will pay it in lost equity.
I see house maintenance, painting, etc. as work. Work can be fulfilling and enjoyable. But I’d rather make money at it than spend money on it.
To each his own.
June 30, 2009 at 9:01 AM #422842Guest[quote=AN]People who are like you and don’t like to fix up your house, I see it pretty run down, but they’re still living in there. So they probably don’t spend that much time and $. Others, like me, love to modify/remodel our homes. It’s a joy/hobby. Hobby cost money, but it’s fun and fulfilling. I guess you’ll never understand that. [/quote]
People who live in run-down houses are not spending any money on maintenance now. But they’ll spend money on maintenance later, or they will pay it in lost equity.
I see house maintenance, painting, etc. as work. Work can be fulfilling and enjoyable. But I’d rather make money at it than spend money on it.
To each his own.
June 30, 2009 at 9:01 AM #422909Guest[quote=AN]People who are like you and don’t like to fix up your house, I see it pretty run down, but they’re still living in there. So they probably don’t spend that much time and $. Others, like me, love to modify/remodel our homes. It’s a joy/hobby. Hobby cost money, but it’s fun and fulfilling. I guess you’ll never understand that. [/quote]
People who live in run-down houses are not spending any money on maintenance now. But they’ll spend money on maintenance later, or they will pay it in lost equity.
I see house maintenance, painting, etc. as work. Work can be fulfilling and enjoyable. But I’d rather make money at it than spend money on it.
To each his own.
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