Roubini: National median will go down 25%

[powayseller]

Roubini’s prediction for national housing price drops are very bearish

I have several comments on there too. Please read the bottom comment, where I analyze Kelly Bennett’s story from today and the true impact of resetting ARMs. Kelly did a great job on this research, even though she got misled by Visini; probably he doesn’t understand it either.

One thing that people have to understand is that home prices are set at the margin. Bob Visini gave her wrong info when he told her that 3/4 of loans are fixed, thus the impact is negligible; all you need is 30,000 sellers in distress to bring down home prices for everyone!

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Don’t know what’s with the building stocks, going up fast (but low volume), I guess there IS a sucker born every minute.

[barnaby33]

People covering shorts perhaps?

Josh

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Just seems crazy to me this run up today, Don’t think anything has changed, Maybe some type of market manipulation to get a lot of dumb money to buy in (hey look maybe housing set to take off again hon, we should buy that 800K nothing special home on a 1/8 acre or that fixer-upper for 600k).

Anyway I am not buying into it.

[powayseller]

Stocks don’t go up or down in a straight line; it’s bumpy. This rally will be short-lived, IMO.

[vcguy_10]

House prices may also drop in a non monotonous way. A year or two from now, some people will “see” the bottom and start buying again, bidding prices upwards, only to see the market resume its free fall the following quarter. And this process may repeat itself more than once before we hit the true bottom. Of course, it’s nearly impossible to tell a false bottom from the true one until after the fact. It’ll be exciting to watch!

[bob007]

anyone who can predict the bottom should be in the same boat as those who predict 20% year over year increase in housing prices.

[rocketman]

Short on Advice… I started doing a hypothetical portfolio on short trades using the short trades that most everyone recommended on this blog starting 8/31/06. I shorted 100 shares of the following stocks with the begin price and the present profit as of today 9/13:

Stock   Paid   Current   $Gain   %Gain
CTX   49.01   51.76   -275.00   -5.61%
FED   50.00   53.24   -324.00   -6.48
HD   34.17   37.17   -300.00   -8.78
LEND   31.94   35.49   -355.00   -11.11
LOW   26.37   28.96   -259.00   -9.82
PHM   29.95   31.11   -186.00   -6.36
WM   42.40   42.26   14.00    0.33

So if I were to have taken all the "Short" advice given to me on this website starting on 8/31, I would have invested -$27,999.00 and lost $1,685.00 (on margin so add another 9%).

[Author]

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