Recession 2020

[FlyerInHi]

The Chinese debt is in RMB. Can they not just monetize it away?

Question is that we have excess savings in the west. Why are we not investing to building things that improve people’s lives? Companies are swimming in cash but they are not investing because the policies to spur demand, which by definition includes ability to pay, aren’t there.

Other questions is humanity is better off today than 30 years ago. Why are we not celebrating and participating in initiatives such as Relt and Road to improve lives.

I read Has the West Lost it? Good book. The author wrote a previous book in 2009 and he was right. Since then, China built its whole high speed rail network. They have amazing technology to build bridges and roads.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO Current high speed rail Tech will be obsolete in 15 years.

But something resembling current metro Rail and Freight Rail will be in high demand.

[spdrun]

No, it won’t be. It’s a good way to power 200-300 mph vehicles electrically without worrying about battery maintenance/charging. Rails do a nice job of locating a current pickup precisely and providing an electrical return path.

Self-driving cars won’t be able to do that kind of speed with the same level of safety. Hyperloop is fucking awful if you’re claustrophobic or prone to motion sickness — being Spam in a can would be vomit city for me.

But you’re right, the tech can evolve. If trains can be driverless, you can have one or two-car “capsules” running and stopping much more frequently than current trains.

[outtamojo]

[quote=FlyerInHi]The Chinese debt is in RMB. Can they not just monetize it away?

Question is that we have excess savings in the west. Why are we not investing to building things that improve people’s lives? Companies are swimming in cash but they are not investing because the policies to spur demand, which by definition includes ability to pay, aren’t there.

Other questions is humanity is better off today than 30 years ago. Why are we not celebrating and participating in initiatives such as Relt and Road to improve lives.

I read Has the West Lost it? Good book. The author wrote a previous book in 2009 and he was right. Since then, China built its whole high speed rail network. They have amazing technology to build bridges and roads.

—> blatant political threadjack- but I am sure you will agree. Has the West lost it? About half our nation aspires only to make abortion illegal and to openly carry guns wherever they go. They dont dream of exploring space, making energy cheaply, none of that. Our biggest worry is that some out-tribe will steal our cookies so we gotta constantly guard them. No I dont thing we’ve lost it but we are well on our way.

[spdrun]

Because hyper-competitiveness and extreme individualism are parts of American culture.

Now, with the monetization, commodification, and MBA’ification of everything, ordinary Americans are afraid of losing what little they got for themselves. So they’re willing to push others down to keep what they have.

Guns are a symbol — even if you have nothing else but a gun, you still retain a sliver of power over others.

[The-Shoveler]

” If trains can be driverless, you can have one or two-car “capsules” running and stopping much more frequently than current trains.”

That’s a good example, I was thinking more along the lines of fully automated vertical takeoff/landing air craft.

[spdrun]

Short-distance flight is already pretty inefficient, and that’s with aerodynamically clean aircraft. Add the hardware required for VTOL and efficiency will decline further along with safety.

Think about helicopter and V-22 Osprey safety vs 737 or Dash-8 safety.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Because hyper-competitiveness and extreme individualism are parts of American culture.

Now, with the monetization, commodification, and MBA’ification of everything, ordinary Americans are afraid of losing what little they got for themselves. So they’re willing to push others down to keep what they have.

Guns are a symbol — even if you have nothing else but a gun, you still retain a sliver of power over others.[/quote]

I don’t even think that Americans are competitive in education, production and commerce. Asians are a lot more competitive. Even the uneducated Asian thinks about opening a small business to buy and sell things. That’s why street life is so vibrant in Asia.

American are competitive in a cowboy kinda way. They want their little homesteads which they defend with their guns while riding their chariots (pickup trucks).

American innovation comes from new immigrants who bring new ideas.

A famous Indian economist wrote about the “New Wealth of Nations” thanks to globalization of education. The newly educated populations do aspire to tech advancement, alternative energy, etc…, They are very competitive.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO one more FED rate hike and it’s all over.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO one more FED rate hike and it’s all over.[/quote]

Higher rates might be necessary to fund our Federal deficit.

[The-Shoveler]

“Higher rates might be necessary to fund our Federal deficit.”

IMO no they are not.

[spdrun]

Higher rates increase interest on the debt, but they also encourage entities to buy bonds. (i.e. lend). So it’s a two-way problem.

[FlyerInHi]

It’s about selling new bonds at a rate that attracts investors and continue funding the deficit.

The outstanding bonds will trade at a discount to reflect a higher rate environment.

That’s what conservatives have been warning about regarding deficit spending. Eventually inefficient government spending will crowd out private investments.

[The-Shoveler]

If the FED announced they were going to lower rates next meeting there would be a bull run on bonds LOL.

It is just the opposite, if the market thinks the rates will be lower in the future they buy more, if higher they buy less.

[FlyerInHi]

The Fed doesn’t make sudden moves.
Expectations are already priced in. Remember the theory of efficient markets.

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