Recession 2020

[spdrun]

Over 25 years, sure. Over 10 years, who’s to say?

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Over 25 years, sure. Over 10 years, who’s to say?[/quote]

Yes, but then your are trying to pick exactly when the next correction is the start of a longer period down turn.

What information do you possess that allows you to accurately predict that?

I’m truely curious how you plan on spotting the “big one” versus all the other corrections that ended up being not the big one. Was the 600pt correction enough for you to identify it as the start of the big one? Just a few days ago, you said the 600pt correction was the start. But obviously it wasn’t.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]

My plan for a recession? Sell my primary, put everything into investment property. One shot deal, survive or perish.[/quote]

Also, I had to ask about this one too.

If financial survival is what you are concerned about, why would you want to take on considerable risk in this scenario to gamble again about being correct and sell your primary home to buy rentals? I mean if you wait until a recession to sell your primary home, aren’t you essentially selling when the home prices are depressed? And hence you you really won’t get that much money back and increase your purchasing power, even though the investment properties are also cheaper. Also, what if your timing is just not correct…you sell your primary home and buy investment properties thinking the markets finished tanking, and then after you bought investment properties , the housing market fell furthermmm..and you end up with underperforming rental properties and also now you have no home to live in that is free and clear? That seems like gambling to me too, not just simply surviving, no?

How is this less risky than just regularly making small tiny drip investments over 20-30 years where each tiny contribution is barely some fancy meals in some nice restaurants?

This is the part why I’m confused. Because earlier you mentioned you’re looking to financially survive. Ok, I get that. But if that’s really what you’re only looking to do, you would be doing the things that minimize financial risk.

But at the same time, everything else you mention about your financial strategy is considerable high risk. You’re counting on your prediction to be accurate, you’re ignoring the golden rule that “markets can stay irrational longer you can stay solvent”, and you’re setting yourself up for a 1 hit/ 1 wonder event that exposes you to two considerable financial risks

1. Waiting for that one hit/one correct market time, you’re losing a lot of opportunity cost waiting

2. Even if you wait long enough for a correction and you enter the market during that correction, but the markets correct even further after you enter, then you have real market losses too on top of the opportunity cost you already lost in #1 by waiting

It just seems like this financial strategy is highly speculative and risky (IE gambling) and the antithesis of simply financially surviving.

[Coronita]

.

[ltsddd]

I’ll go out on a limb and say that a 5-10% drop in the stock markets will occur within the next 3 months or so. The next earning reports are going to be bad (maybe with the exception of medical supply companies) due to this coronavirus thing. Airline companies, apple, fast food (KFC,MCD) they are all fvked.

starbucks closed half of its 4200 stores in china

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsdd]I’ll go out on a limb and say that a 5-10% drop in the stock markets will occur within the next 3 months or so. The next earning reports are going to be bad (maybe with the exception of medical supply companies) due to this coronavirus thing. Airline companies, apple, fast food (KFC,MCD) they are all fvked.

starbucks closed half of its 4200 stores in china[/quote]

I think you’ll have airlines and companies with exposure to china already factored in with a correction in those specific sectors. However, I think you’ll see good performance in sectors where china just dropped the trade tariffs in 1/2. Biotech and pharma will probably do well.

[ltsddd]

The effects of the coronavirus are not fully priced in due to 1. it’s still on-going 2. nobody knows for sure what the real damage is (likely to be on the worse instead of better side). As for tariffs, it’ll take awhile before it has any real impact – it’s not like they have an armada of cargo ships running in circles in international waters waiting for the moment the tariffs are dropped to pull into port to take advantage of it. Moreover, that’s just an announcement, nothing is done until the big wigs actually signed the agreement.

BTW., saw an article about a crematorium in wuhan working non-stop daily burning about 100 bodies a day. Extrapolate that for the Wuhan and nearby provinces and you’ll see how ridiculous the “official” less than a thousand deaths is.

[Coronita]

S&P and Nasdaq at record.

…lol…..

[ltsddd]

[quote=flu]S&P and Nasdaq at record.

…lol…..[/quote]

If the markets don’t stage a rally at the close today…bend over and be ready for a few more days like today.

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsdd][quote=flu]S&P and Nasdaq at record.

…lol…..[/quote]

If the markets don’t stage a rally at the close today…bend over and be ready for a few more days like today.[/quote]

I disagree. I think this is more like hysteria then anything else. But time will tell. I do think this will force US companies to diversify their supply chain from China, which is a good thing. It was already started with the tariff wars where some of manufacturing was shifted from China to Mexico. This probably will accelerate that trend..It’s good. Might even boost opportunities in North America. We shouldn’t be solely dependent on China anyway.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu]S&P and Nasdaq at record.

…lol…..[/quote]

Any more market updates, flu?

[Coronita]

Sure Brian . Because your crystal ball accurately predicted the coronavirus out of thing air. Gotcha. See. This is exactly what I mean when I say your type of people come out of hiding the moment something comes out that supports your narrative even if it had nothing to do with your original narrative. When the markets recover , you’ll go right back into hiding. Because that’s your MO. I’m waiting you to connect the dots to Trump on this one. One thing is for certain. China certainly won’t be the same again. They certainly are to blame for this and they lost a lot of credibility in the world. The world has finally figured out the lying sack of shit the PRC are, that many already knew about. Glad it finally blew up in their face. Now, companies will finally diversify supply chains away from China. Good. hallelujah.

But please keep talking about the recession and how awful things are, because it certainly seems like there’s a strong correlation that once you do, things end up backfiring and doing the opposite of what you are so confident about. Lol.

[Anonymous]

Flu he’s trying to Make Brian Great Again

[FlyerInHi]

Unlike you flu, i don’t post market updates as an argument for or against anything.
I discuss the broad trends that affect the economy.

When I created the thread the intention was to discuss the conditions that would less you a recession 2 years later.

I’m just calling you on your game. Market updates, anyone?

As far as Trump, you are the one making the connections to Trump.

As far as China, did you follow the Munich Security Conference, the
Davos of security. The topic was Westlessness.

And more on China, the supply chainis owned by China even though is may relocate to Vietnam, Indonesia or Ethiopia.

[Coronita]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Unlike you flu, i don’t post market updates as an argument for or against anything.
I discuss the broad trends that affect the economy.

When I created the thread the intention was to discuss the conditions that would less you a recession 2 years later.

I’m just calling you on your game. Market updates, anyone?

As far as Trump, you are the one making the connections to Trump.[/quote]

Bullshit you don’t. You posted updates anytime there was any news that fit your narrative even if it had nothing to do with your original narrative. The only reason why you haven’t posted any updates until now was there literally was NOTHING supporting your narrative, and you went into hiding because you were looking like an idiot because until a completely unrelated Coronavirus came into existence, you were itching for any excuse to post about Trump tanking the economy. So for pretty much most of last Q4 and beginning of January you disappeared and went into hiding. Because the trump destroying the economy thesis literally blew up in your face. And as I predicted, you came right back the moment anything would fit your narrative even if the narrative has changed. lol . And I guarantee the moment the markets no long fit your narrative again, you’ll go right back into hiding as you always do. That was that one thing you did that was comical, because you started talking about the economy and stock market despite knowing very well you have no game in equity markets….. like you do all the time with many things. But please do keep up the narrative… Because like I said, things tend to go the opposite of what you predict. lol

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