OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[partypup]

[quote=partypup][quote=afx114]538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[/quote]

Sorry, I meant to say:

“Even if McCain only gets 10% of these bitter folks, that’s 504,000 votes. In a contest that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in each battleground state, those defections could be critical. Remember: Obama’s electoral lead is premised on leads within the margin of error in almost all battleground states.”

I had that number at 1.8 million in my earlier post, but 1.8 million would be 10% of Hilary’s entire voting population, as opposed to 10% of the 28% who stubbornly refuse to support Obama.

[/quote]

[partypup]

[quote=esmith][quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654
[/quote]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking more about Spring 2007, when it really became clear to me that things were going to hell. Can you get the numbers for that period? Everyone was telling me I was nuts back then.

But look at this chart — there’s something else that’s pretty telling here. These fools actually thought the chances of a recession were DROPPING in May – August of this year! Correct me if I’m mis-reading this, but weren’t they putting the odds of a recession at 10% at the beginning of September ’08? After the Bear Stearns collapse and the IMF issuing warnings about a global depression? What does that tell you? Gamblers, like stock investors, can be complete and total idiots if they are working with bad data.

What are the odds of a Depression? Is there an index for that, esmith? I have to create an account ASAP and start making some bank. I may not be able to naked short financials, but I can still take advantage of some fools on Intrade 🙂

[partypup]

[quote=esmith][quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654
[/quote]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking more about Spring 2007, when it really became clear to me that things were going to hell. Can you get the numbers for that period? Everyone was telling me I was nuts back then.

But look at this chart — there’s something else that’s pretty telling here. These fools actually thought the chances of a recession were DROPPING in May – August of this year! Correct me if I’m mis-reading this, but weren’t they putting the odds of a recession at 10% at the beginning of September ’08? After the Bear Stearns collapse and the IMF issuing warnings about a global depression? What does that tell you? Gamblers, like stock investors, can be complete and total idiots if they are working with bad data.

What are the odds of a Depression? Is there an index for that, esmith? I have to create an account ASAP and start making some bank. I may not be able to naked short financials, but I can still take advantage of some fools on Intrade 🙂

[partypup]

[quote=esmith][quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654
[/quote]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking more about Spring 2007, when it really became clear to me that things were going to hell. Can you get the numbers for that period? Everyone was telling me I was nuts back then.

But look at this chart — there’s something else that’s pretty telling here. These fools actually thought the chances of a recession were DROPPING in May – August of this year! Correct me if I’m mis-reading this, but weren’t they putting the odds of a recession at 10% at the beginning of September ’08? After the Bear Stearns collapse and the IMF issuing warnings about a global depression? What does that tell you? Gamblers, like stock investors, can be complete and total idiots if they are working with bad data.

What are the odds of a Depression? Is there an index for that, esmith? I have to create an account ASAP and start making some bank. I may not be able to naked short financials, but I can still take advantage of some fools on Intrade 🙂

[partypup]

[quote=esmith][quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654
[/quote]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking more about Spring 2007, when it really became clear to me that things were going to hell. Can you get the numbers for that period? Everyone was telling me I was nuts back then.

But look at this chart — there’s something else that’s pretty telling here. These fools actually thought the chances of a recession were DROPPING in May – August of this year! Correct me if I’m mis-reading this, but weren’t they putting the odds of a recession at 10% at the beginning of September ’08? After the Bear Stearns collapse and the IMF issuing warnings about a global depression? What does that tell you? Gamblers, like stock investors, can be complete and total idiots if they are working with bad data.

What are the odds of a Depression? Is there an index for that, esmith? I have to create an account ASAP and start making some bank. I may not be able to naked short financials, but I can still take advantage of some fools on Intrade 🙂

[partypup]

[quote=esmith][quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654
[/quote]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking more about Spring 2007, when it really became clear to me that things were going to hell. Can you get the numbers for that period? Everyone was telling me I was nuts back then.

But look at this chart — there’s something else that’s pretty telling here. These fools actually thought the chances of a recession were DROPPING in May – August of this year! Correct me if I’m mis-reading this, but weren’t they putting the odds of a recession at 10% at the beginning of September ’08? After the Bear Stearns collapse and the IMF issuing warnings about a global depression? What does that tell you? Gamblers, like stock investors, can be complete and total idiots if they are working with bad data.

What are the odds of a Depression? Is there an index for that, esmith? I have to create an account ASAP and start making some bank. I may not be able to naked short financials, but I can still take advantage of some fools on Intrade 🙂

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.

If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?

So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.

Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.

BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]

I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.

Here’s where I disagree:

I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.

If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.

[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]

I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).

This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.

For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.

But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?

It’s very upsetting.

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.

If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?

So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.

Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.

BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]

I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.

Here’s where I disagree:

I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.

If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.

[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]

I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).

This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.

For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.

But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?

It’s very upsetting.

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.

If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?

So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.

Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.

BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]

I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.

Here’s where I disagree:

I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.

If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.

[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]

I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).

This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.

For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.

But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?

It’s very upsetting.

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.

If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?

So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.

Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.

BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]

I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.

Here’s where I disagree:

I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.

If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.

[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]

I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).

This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.

For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.

But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?

It’s very upsetting.

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.

If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?

So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.

Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.

BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]

I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.

Here’s where I disagree:

I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.

If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.

[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]

I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).

This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.

For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.

But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?

It’s very upsetting.

[xironman]

Wow,

The must be growing the good stuff in Cali again from what I read here. Like someone said earlier fivethirtyeight has McCain’s chances at 1.9%, that’s not close. Of course they should be preparing to take over and picking a cabinet. It is going to be tough cleaning up after the devastation of the last eight years so there is no time like the present.

[xironman]

Wow,

The must be growing the good stuff in Cali again from what I read here. Like someone said earlier fivethirtyeight has McCain’s chances at 1.9%, that’s not close. Of course they should be preparing to take over and picking a cabinet. It is going to be tough cleaning up after the devastation of the last eight years so there is no time like the present.

[xironman]

Wow,

The must be growing the good stuff in Cali again from what I read here. Like someone said earlier fivethirtyeight has McCain’s chances at 1.9%, that’s not close. Of course they should be preparing to take over and picking a cabinet. It is going to be tough cleaning up after the devastation of the last eight years so there is no time like the present.

[xironman]

Wow,

The must be growing the good stuff in Cali again from what I read here. Like someone said earlier fivethirtyeight has McCain’s chances at 1.9%, that’s not close. Of course they should be preparing to take over and picking a cabinet. It is going to be tough cleaning up after the devastation of the last eight years so there is no time like the present.

[Author]

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