OT: Ebola – Global Pandemic?

[SD Realtor]

We will see what happens. Single digits of infections this week…. I have not kept track of how long the disease has been present in non third world countries. I believe only for 2-3 weeks at most. Given the period of 2-21 days for symptoms to develop I believe the next few weeks will be quite interesting. However, the raw facts are such that measures needed to keep the virus contained will not be enacted.

The game changer is the breach of the non industrialized nations borders.

I will be REALLY happy to be wrong. Russ I totally hope you are correct.

ISIS and terrorism have nothing on Ebola but if ISIS was smart they should focus on smuggling infected people into the US as opposed to using guns and bombs.

[Zeitgeist]

[quote=SD Realtor]We will see what happens. Single digits of infections this week…. I have not kept track of how long the disease has been present in non third world countries. I believe only for 2-3 weeks at most. Given the period of 2-21 days for symptoms to develop I believe the next few weeks will be quite interesting. However, the raw facts are such that measures needed to keep the virus contained will not be enacted.

The game changer is the breach of the non industrialized nations borders. ISIS and terrorism have nothing on Ebola but if ISIS was smart they should focus on smuggling infected people into the US as opposed to using guns and bombs.[/quote]

You are 100% right about that. Put them in a crowded venue or some other inner city environment and let the infection run wild. Shades of Escape from LA.

[no_such_reality]

Total worldwide infection is around 9000, total deaths are around 4400 with Ebola outbreak running since March of this year.

We don’t want to stick our head in the sand, but the media drumbeat paranoia that has people panic whenever anbody sneezes is overdone.

[SD Realtor]

I agree that the media sensationalizes every. That is their job.

From a probability standpoint things like this are inevitable. The only variable that really exists is the time between events. It is no different from ice ages and meteor strikes. It is no an if, but a when.

We are closer to that when now then we have ever been. Human error has already raised the probability of it becoming widespread here. How can the cdc allow a person with any fever at all who worked in the hospital and treated patient 0 fly?

Similarly our domestic hospital personnel are largely uneducated about this particular virus. I can go on and on but from a pure probability sense, strictly probability based on present domestic cases as well as human error and ease of travel in our country, the adds are much more in favor of a larger outbreak then not, at least in my opinion. I am wrong plenty of the time, and in this case I very much hope to be again.

[no_such_reality]

You live in the USA, you’ll probably drive a car today. From a probability standpoint, the odds of you getting killed by a car crash TODAY exceed your odds of dying from ebola this year.

In fact, even though you’re in San Deigo, you have roughly 3X the chance of being struck and killed by lightning.

[Coronita]

My take on ebola is that we have everything in this country at our disposal to make sure it doesn’t become a big outbreak problem.

My concern is… People in this country aren’t taking it seriously enough…And it’s the arrogance that I’m worried about….

Is it doom and gloom? No.. Is it something we can just tread lightly on? Hell no…

CNN is reporting that one of the persons that handed Duncan’s blood has been quarantined on a cruise ship..

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/17/health/us-ebola/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Though we requested this person be flown back to the U.S., ironic that the The Belize government denied the request to allow the person to evacuate using their airport….At least some countries are clearly taking this seriously and taking care of it’s citizens…

The Belize government turned down a request by the United States to evacuate the worker through the international airport in Belize City.
“We remain in close contact with U.S. officials … we have maintained the position that when even the smallest doubt remains, we will ensure the health and safety of the Belizean people,” the government said in a statement.

[SD Realtor]

NSR you are correct, and no argument as the math supports your post as of today. I am not as centric on myself surviving though. I have the resources and have prepped sufficiently to give my family and I a better chance then most. It is the disruption to everyday life and our functional society that I don’t want to have to endure. I would much rather see our society burdened with inconveniences now that could very well help prevent a larger outbreak or at least reduce the chances, then later.

It is kind of a no win game. Implementing things like travel bans and such seems quite archiac and can easily be painted as ineffective. Yet to argue that they do not help in any way, shape or form seems be incorrect in my opinion. Would they be considered an over reaction? Yes. Are they really an over reaction? Maybe, in fact probably. Would they reduce the chances of wider spreading? Perhaps but they definitely would not increase the chances.

It is certainly new ground for western society. As a technological culture we have faith that we can overcome pretty much everything. Maybe the vaccine is already there as I type.

So my post is not a fear of me catching it, it is more of a fear from an epidemiology standpoint. (sorry if I butchered the spelling)

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu]My take on ebola is that we have everything in this country at our disposal to make sure it doesn’t become a big outbreak problem.

[/quote]

I would agree with this with the exception if we somehow mess up and somehow got 150 cases at the same time, I think it could out strip our ability to control and handle.

At that point I would really start to worry.

[spdrun]

Lovely. Obama just appointed Ron Klain (political hack lawyer and damage controller extraordinaire) as “Ebola Czar.” Instead of (say) a former military doctor with public health experience. Where’s the fucking logic, unless Obama views this as an image crisis first and gives a shit about the American public second?

And I’m speaking as someone who voted for Obama and supported at least some of his policies.

[NotCranky]

Someone spoofed South Western College on Ebola.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/oct/16/southwestern-college-ebola-student-closed/

[NotCranky]

Just got the elementary school district email about Ebola.

There has got to be a business opportunity in this. Maybe a line of Gluten and Ebola free breakfast cereals?

[all]

[quote=flu]
My concern is… People in this country aren’t taking it seriously enough…And it’s the arrogance that I’m worried about….[/quote]

I thought communiques from the county school districts and bearishgurl’s college campus being quarantined/evacuated is overreaction.

[The-Shoveler]

sure Yep nothing to worry about

http://news.yahoo.com/video/man-dies-aboard-flight-nigeria-125238049.html

Man Dies Aboard Flight from Nigeria to JFK
Tribune 2:38 mins
A plane reportedly arrived at JFK International Airport with a dead passenger, who entered a vomiting fit while en route to New York. The Centers for Disease Control determined the passenger did not have Ebola.

[ltsddd]

[quote=no_such_reality]Total worldwide infection is around 9000, total deaths are around 4400 with Ebola outbreak running since March of this year.
[/quote]

Need to take into account, up until a few weeks ago, almost all ebola cases were confined to remote villages in Africa.

[CA renter]

[quote=spdrun]Lovely. Obama just appointed Ron Klain (political hack lawyer and damage controller extraordinaire) as “Ebola Czar.” Instead of (say) a former military doctor with public health experience. Where’s the fucking logic, unless Obama views this as an image crisis first and gives a shit about the American public second?

And I’m speaking as someone who voted for Obama and supported at least some of his policies.[/quote]

Agreed. It is all about preventing panic and chaos…forget about the disease.

[Author]

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