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CA renter.
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August 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM #749590August 6, 2012 at 9:06 PM #749591
ocrenter
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=ocrenter]
This election is quite nasty alright. The UT editorial board’s is in full nasty right wing propaganda mode, it is essentially FOX News in print these days.[/quote]OCR: Yeah, the UT has dropped any pretense of objectivity, haven’t they? I remember when the OC Register read like “Mein Kampf”. Now, it’s the UT.
They’re actually making Fox News look fair and balanced by comparison.[/quote]
Ha ha, right. According to the UT, the election is already over with Romney by a landslide. Not quite sure why both sides are still wasting millions on attack ads, how silly!
August 6, 2012 at 10:25 PM #749594Allan from Fallbrook
Participant[quote=ocrenter][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=ocrenter]
This election is quite nasty alright. The UT editorial board’s is in full nasty right wing propaganda mode, it is essentially FOX News in print these days.[/quote]OCR: Yeah, the UT has dropped any pretense of objectivity, haven’t they? I remember when the OC Register read like “Mein Kampf”. Now, it’s the UT.
They’re actually making Fox News look fair and balanced by comparison.[/quote]
Ha ha, right. According to the UT, the election is already over with Romney by a landslide. Not quite sure why both sides are still wasting millions on attack ads, how silly![/quote]
OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.
Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.
August 6, 2012 at 11:47 PM #749595Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.
Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.[/quote]
The general public is typically very simple minded when it comes to the economy. The president gets the credit or the blame on the economy regardless of whether he was a factor. Given how bad the economy is, it really does show how weak Romney is for him to still be trailing Obama.
August 6, 2012 at 11:53 PM #749596SK in CV
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.[/quote]
It will be interesting. But I think it’s really more interesting that Obama is struggling so little, given the state of the economy. Romney is just not a very popular guy.
I do think the popular vote will be close, maybe very close. But the EC isn’t looking so close now. Based on where the candidates are spending their money, it’s now down to just 8 states. Virginia, Ohio, NC, NH, Nevada, Iowa, Florida and Colorado. Current polls show Obama leading in each of those states except for North Carolina. And leading pretty decisively in each of those states except for Virginia and Florida. If any promising numbers come out of Arizona for the Obama campaign, they may add that to the list, but the latest published numbers haven’t done it, nor has any internal polling lead either candidate to spend any money in AZ.
The Romney campaign, at least for the moment, has abandoned PA, as well as every other supposed swing state not listed above.
Pollsters will pretty much all switch over to polling likely voters rather than registered voters over the next 30 days, we’ll find out if that changes anything. Rasmussen is the only pollster than has consistently been polling likely voters.
A lot of things could change in the next 90 days. At this point, that change will have to be pretty dramatic. The only chance of a Romney landslide is a catastrophic event. Based on current polling, an Obama landslide is much more likely.
August 7, 2012 at 8:50 AM #749601Participant[quote=SK in CV]
It will be interesting. But I think it’s really more interesting that Obama is struggling so little, given the state of the economy. Romney is just not a very popular guy.[/quote]
SK: He makes Al Gore look positively vivacious. IMHO, it doesn’t matter who wins. I don’t think Obama has much of plan and I’m sure that Romney doesn’t. Both sides have now taken to simply talking past the problems, or vilifying the other guy/side for the situation. Neither is a recipe for success.
If Obama gets re-elected, the GOP will go into all-out trench warfare mode and guarantee he’s a lame duck from the jump. If Romney wins… well, I’m pretty sure we know how that’s gonna turn out – great if you’re a member of the oligarchy, not so great otherwise.
Long-term, what will be interesting is whether or not the average American figures out that our political class has failed us and failed us because they’ve been pandering to the average American for the last two generations. Also interesting will be the reaction of the younger generation, which is seeing a massive wealth transfer from their pockets to the boomers/elderly. There’s a backlash in there somewhere…
August 7, 2012 at 8:52 AM #749602Participant[quote=ocrenter]
The general public is typically very simple minded when it comes to the economy. The president gets the credit or the blame on the economy regardless of whether he was a factor. Given how bad the economy is, it really does show how weak Romney is for him to still be trailing Obama.[/quote]OCR: I think you can amplify your comment to read that the average American is very simple minded when it comes to pretty much everything as of late.
Maybe a nice war with Iran will perk everybody up. We’re Americans, we like war. Plus, it’s good for the economy. I think you’d actually see Krugman and the GOP agree on that one!
August 7, 2012 at 9:52 AM #749605
CoronitaParticipantWhat do you guys think about a third option?
Dr. Ron Paul
Ron Paul for 2012…. no wait 2016…2020?….Maybe 2024?
!!!!!!Maybe Romney can pick Ron Paul as VP… Yeah, yeah…I can see it now….
August 7, 2012 at 9:53 AM #749606poorgradstudent
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.
Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.[/quote]
It’s gonna be tight, and it’s actually feasible Obama will lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, simply by squeaking by in a lot of purple states while getting killed in Red states. Romney is really benefiting from the terrible economy and new SuperPAC rules. Based on economic numbers alone, Obama should be getting killed in the polls. His resilience shows both that he is personally popular and Willard is a bad candidate.I’m not sure why you think polls oversample Dems, unless you mean polls that look at registered voters instead of likely voters? Republicans do tend to win the turnout battle, so registered voter polls aren’t good at reflecting elections. Polling science is complex, the best method really seems to be to average a bunch of polls together over time.
August 7, 2012 at 10:23 AM #749608bearishgurl
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] . . . Also interesting will be the reaction of the younger generation, which is seeing a massive wealth transfer from their pockets to the boomers/elderly. There’s a backlash in there somewhere…[/quote]
Allan, I don’t know if you’re a boomer, but you must be aware of the “massive wealth transfer” (incl a cost-of-living raise almost every year) that the boomers and Gen X transferred to the “Greatest Gen” and the “WWII Gen” from 1964 forward. What is different about the current “wealth transfer” in the form of OASDI and Medicare to boomers, the WWII gen (shrinking) and the surviving Greatest Gen (shrinking fast) is that the vast majority of the current crop of boomers (male AND female) who are retired, retiring or soon to retire PAID their required 40 quarters (and often MUCH more than that) of FICA into the “system.”
50% of the older generations were women who either never worked or worked sporadically and/or part-time and did not contribute any FICA or less than $5K of FICA in their lifetimes on their own behalves. However, these past and current OASDI recipients were and are allowed to collect OASDI from age 65 until they die based upon calculations from their current spouse’s, a deceased spouse’s or former spouse’s work records EVEN if that current or former spouse is currently collecting OASDI themselves based upon their own work record!
Then there is the exorbitant SS (abt $850 – $2400) paid to each minor survivor, even if their parent died young and contributed little or no FICA in their lifetimes!
Then there is the SSI paid to many thousands of immigrants over the age of 65 who contributed zero FICA in their lifetimes and actually immigrated to the US AFTER they “retired” in their home country
In addition, the current crop of eligible retirees over the age of 65 now all pay a Medicare Supplement premium for Medicare Part B and D and a very large portion of the Greatest Gen did not.
The “reform” that actually needs to happen is SS reform in ALL its programs. Otherwise many of us boomers will likely not be able to even recover our own lifetime contributions to the “system” after turning 66+ years old and becoming eligible. And forget their being any OASDI for Gen X and beyond …
SK will probably argue this 🙂 but I predict I may be able to collect OASDI for less than 3 years before the fund becomes insolvent, that is, if it is not insolvent before I become eligible.
I have little sympathy for the current crop of younger workers. They have so many more freedoms “on the clock” than the boomers and generations beyond ever dreamed of and also enjoy a whole passel of more recent “employee-friendly” laws that their forebears did not.
Every worker coming up thru the ranks has always had the same problems. The current crop of workers just seems to want to whine about them more.
August 7, 2012 at 10:37 AM #749609Participant[quote=flu]What do you guys think about a third option?
Dr. Ron Paul
Ron Paul for 2012…. no wait 2016…2020?….Maybe 2024?
!!!!!!Maybe Romney can pick Ron Paul as VP… Yeah, yeah…I can see it now….[/quote]
As to RP running again, I wouldn’t bet on that. He’s not exactly a spring chicken. I could see RP’s son running in the future, though.
As to Romney picking RP as his running mate … uhh … stranger things have happened. If he gets too far behind Obama in the polls in the coming weeks, he could very well consider it as this is a sure ticket to picking up the votes which would have gone to RP :=]
August 7, 2012 at 12:52 PM #749627briansd1
GuestThe County is giving away money.
It could easily be argued that trophy properties never lost value as evidenced by top prices paid by the mega-rich around the world.
This reassessment is not the usual kind where a County clerk or supervisor made the decision. It rises to the level of top management and the County Assessor himself.
There was a huge corruption scandal in Los Angeles where building owners got assessment reduced in exchange for kickbacks.
I’m not implying that’s the case in San Diego with Romney’s house, but the Assessor could have stood firm and litigate this matter if necessary.
The value of Romney’s house is in the trophy oceanfront location. Romey also got the Coastal Commission to recommend approval of his new mansion which improves the value of the land.
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2011/aug/20/romney-home-in-la-jolla-to-grow/
August 7, 2012 at 1:00 PM #749628Guest[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
IMHO, it doesn’t matter who wins.
[/quote]
Listen to you, Allan.How can it not matter?
[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
If Obama gets re-elected, the GOP will go into all-out trench warfare mode and guarantee he’s a lame duck from the jump.
[/quote]On the one hand, you have a president who is attempting to do right by the people while facing trench warfare from the Republicans.
Who knows? Obama could break the obstruction.
[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
If Romney wins… well, I’m pretty sure we know how that’s gonna turn out – great if you’re a member of the oligarchy, not so great otherwise.
[/quote]On the other hand you have a candidate who will turn America into a Russian type oligarchy for billionaires.
August 7, 2012 at 1:44 PM #749637Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
IMHO, it doesn’t matter who wins.
[/quote]
Listen to you, Allan.How can it not matter?
[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
If Obama gets re-elected, the GOP will go into all-out trench warfare mode and guarantee he’s a lame duck from the jump.
[/quote]On the one hand, you have a president who is attempting to do right by the people while facing trench warfare from the Republicans.
Who knows? Obama could break the obstruction.
[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
If Romney wins… well, I’m pretty sure we know how that’s gonna turn out – great if you’re a member of the oligarchy, not so great otherwise.
[/quote]On the other hand you have a candidate who will turn America into a Russian type oligarchy for billionaires.[/quote]
Brian: Stop taking my comments out of context. I opined that it didn’t matter and then explained why. If you’re going to try and bait me, at least do a better job.
Obama is NOT doing right by the people, he’s playing cheap partisan politics and the class card. If we’re being brutally honest, we’re looking at two members of the 1% playing stalking horse for their respective machines (Rove/Armey versus Axelrod/Chicago Machine). Thus, my challenge to you on reform, any reform, but especially tax reform and entitlement reform.
Neither party wants to bell that particular cat and one has to wonder why. If we don’t engage in some serious and meaningful reform, entitlement spending will literally crowd everything else out (with the exception of debt service) by 2035.
Want to discuss that? Or no? You need to quit with this binary/Boolean thinking, where if it is not A, it must be B. It’s shoddy thinking, it lacks any sort of criticality and it’s dishonest.
August 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM #749735Guest[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Neither party wants to bell that particular cat and one has to wonder why. If we don’t engage in some serious and meaningful reform, entitlement spending will literally crowd everything else out (with the exception of debt service) by 2035.[/quote]
While this is critically important, I still don’t buy the argument that the two parties are the same.
There are plenty of quality of life issues that matter to people.
Let me give you an analogy. Let’s say that the husband is the family breadwinner. He’s unemployed and the family will eventually run out of money.
Of course, finding a job is critically important. But it’s still important to educate the kids, prepare healthy meals for them, clean the house and keep it tidy, socialize with friends, spend quality time with his wife, etc…
All of those quality of life issues matter to a family and it’s important to allocate money to strenghten the family for the future. So when the husband finds a good job again, the whole family is even stronger
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