On Topic – We hit bottom

[ibjames]

I would like the occasional posting of a house or inventory monitors like we used to.. seems like they have all disappeared 🙁

[peterb]

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?

Has unemployment come down to 5.5% or lower?

Is getting a home loan now easier?

I’m thinking the answer to these questions is not only “No”, but that conditions for the market are worsening right now. Most markets tend to over correct. So we’ve probably got a long way to go yet.

[peterb]

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?

Has unemployment come down to 5.5% or lower?

Is getting a home loan now easier?

I’m thinking the answer to these questions is not only “No”, but that conditions for the market are worsening right now. Most markets tend to over correct. So we’ve probably got a long way to go yet.

[peterb]

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?

Has unemployment come down to 5.5% or lower?

Is getting a home loan now easier?

I’m thinking the answer to these questions is not only “No”, but that conditions for the market are worsening right now. Most markets tend to over correct. So we’ve probably got a long way to go yet.

[peterb]

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?

Has unemployment come down to 5.5% or lower?

Is getting a home loan now easier?

I’m thinking the answer to these questions is not only “No”, but that conditions for the market are worsening right now. Most markets tend to over correct. So we’ve probably got a long way to go yet.

[peterb]

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?

Has unemployment come down to 5.5% or lower?

Is getting a home loan now easier?

I’m thinking the answer to these questions is not only “No”, but that conditions for the market are worsening right now. Most markets tend to over correct. So we’ve probably got a long way to go yet.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.

However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.

By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.

Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.

However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.

By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.

Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.

However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.

By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.

Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.

However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.

By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.

Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.

However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.

Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?

Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.

By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.

Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?

That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.

Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.

Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. [/quote]

Rich’s recent graph shows that the ratio you quoted is nearing the top of the previous bubble. We are not even below the pre-2002 maximum.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. [/quote]

Rich’s recent graph shows that the ratio you quoted is nearing the top of the previous bubble. We are not even below the pre-2002 maximum.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. [/quote]

Rich’s recent graph shows that the ratio you quoted is nearing the top of the previous bubble. We are not even below the pre-2002 maximum.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. [/quote]

Rich’s recent graph shows that the ratio you quoted is nearing the top of the previous bubble. We are not even below the pre-2002 maximum.

[Author]

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