It feels kinda bubbly right now

[SD Realtor]

Actually Scaredycat your analysis is incorrect.

Lets set the facts. August of 29 the DOW peaked at about 380. From there it went down in a classic lower lows, and lower highs series of cyclical patterns until it bottomed out in July of 1932 at 41. So about a 92% loss. Now, you cannot find any retracement in that secular decline from August of 29 to July of 1932 a retracement that exceeded much more then 22%. Nothing at all.

Now it is true that up until our March lows the Dow was exhibiting a very similar pattern to the depression behavior. However we have blown that out of the water and the retracement we have seen has blown through the retracements seen in 1929, 1930, 1931, and 1932.

In fact the retracement we have seen since March of 2009 looks EXACTLY like the retracement seen in July of 1932. Not a little bit like it, but just like it.

**************************************

Now can we go back down? Of course. You are right the old way of doing business is done. The old way had to do with free markets and we are steering away from that. However that changes nothing about the rich getting richer. Nor does it change the fact that perception is much more important then reality and as long as government manipulation is alive and well, perceptions of our markets will be maintained. I am not saying our economy is healthy by any means. I am saying it doesnt really matter.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.[/quote]

My financial advisor once said bull markets make dumb people look smart, bear markets make smart people look dumb.

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.[/quote]

My financial advisor once said bull markets make dumb people look smart, bear markets make smart people look dumb.

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.[/quote]

My financial advisor once said bull markets make dumb people look smart, bear markets make smart people look dumb.

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.[/quote]

My financial advisor once said bull markets make dumb people look smart, bear markets make smart people look dumb.

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy][quote=scaredycat]take alook at those grpahs from the depression. right after the crash in 1929 there was a pretty steep rebound. bear traps suck you back in. the old way of doing business is over. the consumers are not going to consume oour way out of it. there will be profits in the future, but it wont be the way it happened before. the dow will hit 5,000 within the next 30 months.[/quote]

I’ll take that wager, but 30 months is a long time to wait, make a 12 month guess so we can at least tease each other sooner. If everything happened exactly like it has in the past, then there wouldn’t be any sport in it. I think the classic bear trap was March 2009, the one I put my foot in and failed to put my money in because I was scared. If you are scared, buy a dog.

Flu, 6x, was HOV (hovnanian homes)in March it was 51 cents. Broke 3 bucks lately, probably will go 7x soon. But then again buying a homebuilder stock during the worst economic disaster is stupid, right? I wish I was more stupid sometimes.[/quote]

My financial advisor once said bull markets make dumb people look smart, bear markets make smart people look dumb.

[SD Realtor]

flu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.

[SD Realtor]

flu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.

[SD Realtor]

flu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.

[SD Realtor]

flu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.

[Author]

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