How much further will the SD market go down.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[woodrow]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here. The market is still completely messed up. You are correct in that we are getting closer to affordability in a few areas that have been crushed (Temecula, Chula Vista), but in 95% of SD County, prices are still ridiculous compared to historic indicators.

[woodrow]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here. The market is still completely messed up. You are correct in that we are getting closer to affordability in a few areas that have been crushed (Temecula, Chula Vista), but in 95% of SD County, prices are still ridiculous compared to historic indicators.

[woodrow]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here. The market is still completely messed up. You are correct in that we are getting closer to affordability in a few areas that have been crushed (Temecula, Chula Vista), but in 95% of SD County, prices are still ridiculous compared to historic indicators.

[woodrow]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here. The market is still completely messed up. You are correct in that we are getting closer to affordability in a few areas that have been crushed (Temecula, Chula Vista), but in 95% of SD County, prices are still ridiculous compared to historic indicators.

[woodrow]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here. The market is still completely messed up. You are correct in that we are getting closer to affordability in a few areas that have been crushed (Temecula, Chula Vista), but in 95% of SD County, prices are still ridiculous compared to historic indicators.

[patientlywaiting]

“It’s the affordability stupid…..”

Very true. Leverage and financial engineering/innovation are all about borrowing from the future so we can have raise our standard of living, right now.

[patientlywaiting]

“It’s the affordability stupid…..”

Very true. Leverage and financial engineering/innovation are all about borrowing from the future so we can have raise our standard of living, right now.

[patientlywaiting]

“It’s the affordability stupid…..”

Very true. Leverage and financial engineering/innovation are all about borrowing from the future so we can have raise our standard of living, right now.

[patientlywaiting]

“It’s the affordability stupid…..”

Very true. Leverage and financial engineering/innovation are all about borrowing from the future so we can have raise our standard of living, right now.

[patientlywaiting]

“It’s the affordability stupid…..”

Very true. Leverage and financial engineering/innovation are all about borrowing from the future so we can have raise our standard of living, right now.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[Author]

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