How and When Did You know?

[Enorah]

I saw this question posed on another housing forum and would be interested in the responses here from some of you whom I have grown to know quite well. I do not post much, but I read here almost every day. And I learn from you all, and I am grateful.

So, how and when did you know that there was a housing bubble and that bubble was going to burst?

I will start.

Fall of 2004 we moved to western Sonoma county from Chicago. We were renters in Chicago and planned on renting in CA “until prices came down”. That was the thought I had in my head with no real data to back that thought up. I could not believe the money people were willing to pay up north for some of the POS houses we looked at. Then I watched, mouth agape, as prices went up and up and up, as the feeding frenzy ensued. Intuitively, I knew what was going to happen and would just smile and nod at people as they would say, with fear in their voices, “Better hurry up and buy something, or you’ll be priced out forever”.

I believe I had my definitive moment when I was standing on the street in front of the house we were renting in the small town of Guerneville with a neighbor as he and I were discussing the housing market. This was winter of 2005. There was a house for sale on our block (rural so block is stretching it). The “house” (a barely one bed/one bath with about 600 sq feet of living space) was listed at 350,000 or something like that, and I was screaming at my neighbor who was arguing with me that it was all going to come down. As he yelled back, “No it won’t, because there will always be another idiot willing to pay more”, it hit me and hit me hard. It really was all going to come down and people were going to get hurt and hurt badly, and some of those people, would be those “idiots” my neighbor so callously referred to.

I stopped arguing with him. What was the point? You know? And I got on-line and followed my instincts and intuition and before I knew it I had a number of housing blogs bookmarked and much real data in front of me. Piggington was a site I bookmarked and read even before I knew we were moving to San Diego County.

So there you have it.

[paramount]

And yet the Bay Area has not really deflated like most areas of So Cal. Of course, I would not really consider Guerneville the Bay Area – back in the mid 1990’s Guerneville was basically flooded out by the Russian River.

To answer your question, I bought my house in 2003 and had a quick valuation done a year later and the value had gone up dramatically – that’s when I knew something was not right.

[paramount]

And yet the Bay Area has not really deflated like most areas of So Cal. Of course, I would not really consider Guerneville the Bay Area – back in the mid 1990’s Guerneville was basically flooded out by the Russian River.

To answer your question, I bought my house in 2003 and had a quick valuation done a year later and the value had gone up dramatically – that’s when I knew something was not right.

[paramount]

And yet the Bay Area has not really deflated like most areas of So Cal. Of course, I would not really consider Guerneville the Bay Area – back in the mid 1990’s Guerneville was basically flooded out by the Russian River.

To answer your question, I bought my house in 2003 and had a quick valuation done a year later and the value had gone up dramatically – that’s when I knew something was not right.

[paramount]

And yet the Bay Area has not really deflated like most areas of So Cal. Of course, I would not really consider Guerneville the Bay Area – back in the mid 1990’s Guerneville was basically flooded out by the Russian River.

To answer your question, I bought my house in 2003 and had a quick valuation done a year later and the value had gone up dramatically – that’s when I knew something was not right.

[paramount]

And yet the Bay Area has not really deflated like most areas of So Cal. Of course, I would not really consider Guerneville the Bay Area – back in the mid 1990’s Guerneville was basically flooded out by the Russian River.

To answer your question, I bought my house in 2003 and had a quick valuation done a year later and the value had gone up dramatically – that’s when I knew something was not right.

[Enorah]

I do not really consider Guerneville part of the bay area either, it is 2 counties north of SF. Prices are coming down in the Russian River area. I have watched them for years, first go up, then hold, then fall.

Thanks for your response to my initial question. I think one of the reasons it was so apparent to me when we first moved to CA was that it was much more magnified here than in Chicago, but even in Chicago many, many people were drinking the “housing only goes up” kool-aid.

[Enorah]

I do not really consider Guerneville part of the bay area either, it is 2 counties north of SF. Prices are coming down in the Russian River area. I have watched them for years, first go up, then hold, then fall.

Thanks for your response to my initial question. I think one of the reasons it was so apparent to me when we first moved to CA was that it was much more magnified here than in Chicago, but even in Chicago many, many people were drinking the “housing only goes up” kool-aid.

[Enorah]

I do not really consider Guerneville part of the bay area either, it is 2 counties north of SF. Prices are coming down in the Russian River area. I have watched them for years, first go up, then hold, then fall.

Thanks for your response to my initial question. I think one of the reasons it was so apparent to me when we first moved to CA was that it was much more magnified here than in Chicago, but even in Chicago many, many people were drinking the “housing only goes up” kool-aid.

[Enorah]

I do not really consider Guerneville part of the bay area either, it is 2 counties north of SF. Prices are coming down in the Russian River area. I have watched them for years, first go up, then hold, then fall.

Thanks for your response to my initial question. I think one of the reasons it was so apparent to me when we first moved to CA was that it was much more magnified here than in Chicago, but even in Chicago many, many people were drinking the “housing only goes up” kool-aid.

[Enorah]

I do not really consider Guerneville part of the bay area either, it is 2 counties north of SF. Prices are coming down in the Russian River area. I have watched them for years, first go up, then hold, then fall.

Thanks for your response to my initial question. I think one of the reasons it was so apparent to me when we first moved to CA was that it was much more magnified here than in Chicago, but even in Chicago many, many people were drinking the “housing only goes up” kool-aid.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
how and when:
In 8/05 I bought a house. After about 30K in improvements and six months later, I got a flier in the mailbox describing in common sense language by some economist, the upcoming housing collapse. I pretty much panicked because I didn’t want to be stuck there forever and listed my house. It took about 5 months to sell and even though it sold 17K more than what I paid I still lost a lot. But I don’t regret it and am impatiently renting. Thank God for these Piggs.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
how and when:
In 8/05 I bought a house. After about 30K in improvements and six months later, I got a flier in the mailbox describing in common sense language by some economist, the upcoming housing collapse. I pretty much panicked because I didn’t want to be stuck there forever and listed my house. It took about 5 months to sell and even though it sold 17K more than what I paid I still lost a lot. But I don’t regret it and am impatiently renting. Thank God for these Piggs.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
how and when:
In 8/05 I bought a house. After about 30K in improvements and six months later, I got a flier in the mailbox describing in common sense language by some economist, the upcoming housing collapse. I pretty much panicked because I didn’t want to be stuck there forever and listed my house. It took about 5 months to sell and even though it sold 17K more than what I paid I still lost a lot. But I don’t regret it and am impatiently renting. Thank God for these Piggs.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
how and when:
In 8/05 I bought a house. After about 30K in improvements and six months later, I got a flier in the mailbox describing in common sense language by some economist, the upcoming housing collapse. I pretty much panicked because I didn’t want to be stuck there forever and listed my house. It took about 5 months to sell and even though it sold 17K more than what I paid I still lost a lot. But I don’t regret it and am impatiently renting. Thank God for these Piggs.

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