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December 14, 2010 at 1:37 AM #640185December 14, 2010 at 1:43 AM #639087CA renterParticipant
[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).
Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]
This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.
You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market!
December 14, 2010 at 1:43 AM #639158CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).
Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]
This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.
You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market!
December 14, 2010 at 1:43 AM #639739CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).
Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]
This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.
You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market!
December 14, 2010 at 1:43 AM #639875CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).
Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]
This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.
You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market!
December 14, 2010 at 1:43 AM #640190CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).
Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]
This is *exactly* what some of us think, and it means that the buyer pool will be much smaller when it happens beacause more people will be “priced out” if interest rates rise…which will lead to lower prices.
You can’t price the buyers out of the market…they ARE the market!
December 14, 2010 at 2:19 AM #639092CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]
Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”
I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??
If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]
Because they need or want to sell. It really is that simple. If buyers aren’t willing to pay their price, then their price is too high.
As to why a neighboring property might have sold for less…it’s because nobody was willing to pay more for it. If somebody wants to sell something, they have to price it to sell. For example, I can put ads online and in all the newspapers listing my dusty minivan for $200K. Just because I listed it for $200K doesn’t make it worth $200K (and just because, once upon a time, some idiot was willing to use someone else’s money to pay $200K for a similar vehicle…doesn’t make MY dusty minivan worth that price, either). In any given market, it is the buyers who determine price. Always.
They have to lower their prices because *smart buyers* know that the prices of this past decade were driven by idiot borrowers (and lenders) who were agreeing to pay prices they could NEVER afford. Just as some sellers think that today’s prices are driven by “distressed” properties, buyers know that the high prices since 2001 were driven by idiot buyers who thought “real estate only goes up,” and who over-leveraged themselves to the point that these foreclosures became inevitable.
Just because a particular neighborhood didn’t see a lot of sales during the credit bubble does NOT mean the prices of those homes weren’t affected by the mania. Even if 1 out of 2 sales were to people who were willing to overpay (and there were PLENTY of people buying in the $800K++ range with “exotic” mortgages), that’s half the market! Prices in neighboring areas (San Diego, in general) during the bubble absolutely affected other areas nearby. Just like that one foreclosure down the street can affect prices, one sale to an overleveraged, idiot buyer affected what neighboring owners thought their houses were worth. The market does not exist in a vacuum, no matter how “special” an area is.
The foreclosures and short sales are happening because those very same buyers who were overpaying during the bubble are now being taken out (but you never hear these neighboring owners admit that the peak sales to overleveraged speculators shouldn’t count, they only think the “distressed” sales shouldn’t count…one is the mirror image of the other). All of it needs to be unwound.
December 14, 2010 at 2:19 AM #639163CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]
Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”
I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??
If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]
Because they need or want to sell. It really is that simple. If buyers aren’t willing to pay their price, then their price is too high.
As to why a neighboring property might have sold for less…it’s because nobody was willing to pay more for it. If somebody wants to sell something, they have to price it to sell. For example, I can put ads online and in all the newspapers listing my dusty minivan for $200K. Just because I listed it for $200K doesn’t make it worth $200K (and just because, once upon a time, some idiot was willing to use someone else’s money to pay $200K for a similar vehicle…doesn’t make MY dusty minivan worth that price, either). In any given market, it is the buyers who determine price. Always.
They have to lower their prices because *smart buyers* know that the prices of this past decade were driven by idiot borrowers (and lenders) who were agreeing to pay prices they could NEVER afford. Just as some sellers think that today’s prices are driven by “distressed” properties, buyers know that the high prices since 2001 were driven by idiot buyers who thought “real estate only goes up,” and who over-leveraged themselves to the point that these foreclosures became inevitable.
Just because a particular neighborhood didn’t see a lot of sales during the credit bubble does NOT mean the prices of those homes weren’t affected by the mania. Even if 1 out of 2 sales were to people who were willing to overpay (and there were PLENTY of people buying in the $800K++ range with “exotic” mortgages), that’s half the market! Prices in neighboring areas (San Diego, in general) during the bubble absolutely affected other areas nearby. Just like that one foreclosure down the street can affect prices, one sale to an overleveraged, idiot buyer affected what neighboring owners thought their houses were worth. The market does not exist in a vacuum, no matter how “special” an area is.
The foreclosures and short sales are happening because those very same buyers who were overpaying during the bubble are now being taken out (but you never hear these neighboring owners admit that the peak sales to overleveraged speculators shouldn’t count, they only think the “distressed” sales shouldn’t count…one is the mirror image of the other). All of it needs to be unwound.
December 14, 2010 at 2:19 AM #639744CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]
Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”
I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??
If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]
Because they need or want to sell. It really is that simple. If buyers aren’t willing to pay their price, then their price is too high.
As to why a neighboring property might have sold for less…it’s because nobody was willing to pay more for it. If somebody wants to sell something, they have to price it to sell. For example, I can put ads online and in all the newspapers listing my dusty minivan for $200K. Just because I listed it for $200K doesn’t make it worth $200K (and just because, once upon a time, some idiot was willing to use someone else’s money to pay $200K for a similar vehicle…doesn’t make MY dusty minivan worth that price, either). In any given market, it is the buyers who determine price. Always.
They have to lower their prices because *smart buyers* know that the prices of this past decade were driven by idiot borrowers (and lenders) who were agreeing to pay prices they could NEVER afford. Just as some sellers think that today’s prices are driven by “distressed” properties, buyers know that the high prices since 2001 were driven by idiot buyers who thought “real estate only goes up,” and who over-leveraged themselves to the point that these foreclosures became inevitable.
Just because a particular neighborhood didn’t see a lot of sales during the credit bubble does NOT mean the prices of those homes weren’t affected by the mania. Even if 1 out of 2 sales were to people who were willing to overpay (and there were PLENTY of people buying in the $800K++ range with “exotic” mortgages), that’s half the market! Prices in neighboring areas (San Diego, in general) during the bubble absolutely affected other areas nearby. Just like that one foreclosure down the street can affect prices, one sale to an overleveraged, idiot buyer affected what neighboring owners thought their houses were worth. The market does not exist in a vacuum, no matter how “special” an area is.
The foreclosures and short sales are happening because those very same buyers who were overpaying during the bubble are now being taken out (but you never hear these neighboring owners admit that the peak sales to overleveraged speculators shouldn’t count, they only think the “distressed” sales shouldn’t count…one is the mirror image of the other). All of it needs to be unwound.
December 14, 2010 at 2:19 AM #639880CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]
Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”
I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??
If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]
Because they need or want to sell. It really is that simple. If buyers aren’t willing to pay their price, then their price is too high.
As to why a neighboring property might have sold for less…it’s because nobody was willing to pay more for it. If somebody wants to sell something, they have to price it to sell. For example, I can put ads online and in all the newspapers listing my dusty minivan for $200K. Just because I listed it for $200K doesn’t make it worth $200K (and just because, once upon a time, some idiot was willing to use someone else’s money to pay $200K for a similar vehicle…doesn’t make MY dusty minivan worth that price, either). In any given market, it is the buyers who determine price. Always.
They have to lower their prices because *smart buyers* know that the prices of this past decade were driven by idiot borrowers (and lenders) who were agreeing to pay prices they could NEVER afford. Just as some sellers think that today’s prices are driven by “distressed” properties, buyers know that the high prices since 2001 were driven by idiot buyers who thought “real estate only goes up,” and who over-leveraged themselves to the point that these foreclosures became inevitable.
Just because a particular neighborhood didn’t see a lot of sales during the credit bubble does NOT mean the prices of those homes weren’t affected by the mania. Even if 1 out of 2 sales were to people who were willing to overpay (and there were PLENTY of people buying in the $800K++ range with “exotic” mortgages), that’s half the market! Prices in neighboring areas (San Diego, in general) during the bubble absolutely affected other areas nearby. Just like that one foreclosure down the street can affect prices, one sale to an overleveraged, idiot buyer affected what neighboring owners thought their houses were worth. The market does not exist in a vacuum, no matter how “special” an area is.
The foreclosures and short sales are happening because those very same buyers who were overpaying during the bubble are now being taken out (but you never hear these neighboring owners admit that the peak sales to overleveraged speculators shouldn’t count, they only think the “distressed” sales shouldn’t count…one is the mirror image of the other). All of it needs to be unwound.
December 14, 2010 at 2:19 AM #640195CA renterParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]
Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”
I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??
If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.[/quote]
Because they need or want to sell. It really is that simple. If buyers aren’t willing to pay their price, then their price is too high.
As to why a neighboring property might have sold for less…it’s because nobody was willing to pay more for it. If somebody wants to sell something, they have to price it to sell. For example, I can put ads online and in all the newspapers listing my dusty minivan for $200K. Just because I listed it for $200K doesn’t make it worth $200K (and just because, once upon a time, some idiot was willing to use someone else’s money to pay $200K for a similar vehicle…doesn’t make MY dusty minivan worth that price, either). In any given market, it is the buyers who determine price. Always.
They have to lower their prices because *smart buyers* know that the prices of this past decade were driven by idiot borrowers (and lenders) who were agreeing to pay prices they could NEVER afford. Just as some sellers think that today’s prices are driven by “distressed” properties, buyers know that the high prices since 2001 were driven by idiot buyers who thought “real estate only goes up,” and who over-leveraged themselves to the point that these foreclosures became inevitable.
Just because a particular neighborhood didn’t see a lot of sales during the credit bubble does NOT mean the prices of those homes weren’t affected by the mania. Even if 1 out of 2 sales were to people who were willing to overpay (and there were PLENTY of people buying in the $800K++ range with “exotic” mortgages), that’s half the market! Prices in neighboring areas (San Diego, in general) during the bubble absolutely affected other areas nearby. Just like that one foreclosure down the street can affect prices, one sale to an overleveraged, idiot buyer affected what neighboring owners thought their houses were worth. The market does not exist in a vacuum, no matter how “special” an area is.
The foreclosures and short sales are happening because those very same buyers who were overpaying during the bubble are now being taken out (but you never hear these neighboring owners admit that the peak sales to overleveraged speculators shouldn’t count, they only think the “distressed” sales shouldn’t count…one is the mirror image of the other). All of it needs to be unwound.
December 14, 2010 at 6:32 AM #639097scaredyclassicParticipantAll of it should be unwound. But money is still cheap. And the strange current reality is that on nice places in the submarket we were tracking man they go into escrow fast. You have to see the listing on a computer rogeam get out there take a look and make an offer in four or five days if you want it. That’s a lot of filtering and attention span required. Sure the whole system might fall apart but if it doesn’t if money is still priced low if supply is constrained by hook or by crook this game if extend and pretend could just bd the new normal. I agree w both sides of the debate. It’s absurd to buy under the current regime. Bit it’s absurd to let that absurdity stop you from buying smethong if you really want it and it’s a good deal relative to the other fake absurdcrappy deals. There is no free market but life goes on. Maybe.
December 14, 2010 at 6:32 AM #639169scaredyclassicParticipantAll of it should be unwound. But money is still cheap. And the strange current reality is that on nice places in the submarket we were tracking man they go into escrow fast. You have to see the listing on a computer rogeam get out there take a look and make an offer in four or five days if you want it. That’s a lot of filtering and attention span required. Sure the whole system might fall apart but if it doesn’t if money is still priced low if supply is constrained by hook or by crook this game if extend and pretend could just bd the new normal. I agree w both sides of the debate. It’s absurd to buy under the current regime. Bit it’s absurd to let that absurdity stop you from buying smethong if you really want it and it’s a good deal relative to the other fake absurdcrappy deals. There is no free market but life goes on. Maybe.
December 14, 2010 at 6:32 AM #639749scaredyclassicParticipantAll of it should be unwound. But money is still cheap. And the strange current reality is that on nice places in the submarket we were tracking man they go into escrow fast. You have to see the listing on a computer rogeam get out there take a look and make an offer in four or five days if you want it. That’s a lot of filtering and attention span required. Sure the whole system might fall apart but if it doesn’t if money is still priced low if supply is constrained by hook or by crook this game if extend and pretend could just bd the new normal. I agree w both sides of the debate. It’s absurd to buy under the current regime. Bit it’s absurd to let that absurdity stop you from buying smethong if you really want it and it’s a good deal relative to the other fake absurdcrappy deals. There is no free market but life goes on. Maybe.
December 14, 2010 at 6:32 AM #639885scaredyclassicParticipantAll of it should be unwound. But money is still cheap. And the strange current reality is that on nice places in the submarket we were tracking man they go into escrow fast. You have to see the listing on a computer rogeam get out there take a look and make an offer in four or five days if you want it. That’s a lot of filtering and attention span required. Sure the whole system might fall apart but if it doesn’t if money is still priced low if supply is constrained by hook or by crook this game if extend and pretend could just bd the new normal. I agree w both sides of the debate. It’s absurd to buy under the current regime. Bit it’s absurd to let that absurdity stop you from buying smethong if you really want it and it’s a good deal relative to the other fake absurdcrappy deals. There is no free market but life goes on. Maybe.
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