housing bubble?

[flyer]

Interesting thread on these issues.

As far as being a LL, it can be a pain at times, but, since we bought most of our properties many years ago, in what we considered profitable locations, we’ve found it’s been well worth the effort. But, as some have said, it’s not for everyone.

My sister and her husband sold all of their residential properties because she couldn’t stand it, and went into commercial years ago.

As a native San Diegan, I’ve seen families (ours included) who have both sold the homes of relatives who have passed on, and many more who have kept them. In most cases, the ultimate deciding factor was the location of the home.

In cases where the home had been purchased at an extremely reasonable price, had an ocean view, acreage, etc. etc., most have been retained by family members, and I think that trend will continue over time. At least that’s what I’ve seen.

[spdrun]

Another thing is that I normally don’t provide a rental application on site. I offer to drop it off at their current home to see what kind of condition they live in. That’s another way I gauge my tenants.

I do differently:

First I talk to the tenant, to establish job, time they need the place, number of pets if any, etc. Then I give them my email address and tell them to email me a couple personal refs, a former (not current, since current ll’s will say anything to get a bad tenant to move on) landlord, and a work ref or two.

Slobs and lazy-asses will generally not take the initiative to contact me back. Self-selection.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl]
I believe it, but it has to be very labor intensive. In addition, these LL’s need a good UD law firm chained to their ankles at all times.

It’s not for a prospective retiree (like myself) who wants to go play on the ski slopes for multiple days per year and take summer road trips (short and longer) as well.

I’d rather invest in something more passive, make less and have more peace in my life.[/quote]

and…

[quote=bearishgurl]
I was a LL in the eighties on a duplex and again in the early nineties on a triplex which we sort of “inherited” and kept for about 4 yrs. I HATED both jobs. I don’t have the patience in dealing with a tenant late on their rent when it was obvious that they paid the local cable company $150 more per month than I did and drove newer vehicles than mine. I’ve just heard a lot of sob stories but the reality is that they could afford my rent but couldn’t properly manage their incomes, hence chronic late payment of rent. Meanwhile, my mtg payment was due. I just don’t like the whole tenant-victim culture and for that reason if I DID rent out my house, I would use a VERY local PM company (w/ a UD firm chained to their ankles) and get the largest security deposit I could get away with.

Life is much too short to deal with that noise. I don’t have the personality for it.[/quote]

And that, in a nutshell, is why many heirs sell their inherited properties instead of keeping them to rent out.

[flyer]

Agree that there are many “horror stories” out there concerning being a LL, but, we’ve just never had any really bad experiences over the years. Our kids want to take over when they “retire” from their current professions and move back to San Diego, and tell us they’re looking forward to it.

Also, many in our family pass our homes down, rather than renting them out, because we know our heirs may not be able to replace them in their lifetimes, and we want to keep them in the family for future generations to enjoy.

As in all things in life, what works for one person, does not necessarily work for another, so everyone simply has to decide what path is best for them.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flyer]Agree that there are many “horror stories” out there concerning being a LL, but, we’ve just never had any really bad experiences over the years. Our kids want to take over when they “retire” from their current professions and move back to San Diego, and tell us they’re looking forward to it.

Also, many in our family pass our homes down, rather than renting them out, because we know our heirs may not be able to replace them in their lifetimes, and we want to keep them in the family for future generations to enjoy.

As in all things in life, what works for one person, does not necessarily work for another, so everyone simply has to decide what path is best for them.[/quote]

flyer, it sounds like you had/have enough “interested parties” in your family to both reside in and manage the properties you all decided to keep. I agree that it is foolish for an estate to sell a property situated on a very valuable piece of land in CA when its taxes are extremely low and will remain so as long as the property remains in the family, especially those which would be difficult to acquire today, such as ocean-view properties and properties situated on acreage.

I wish my parents had stayed in CA and kept their $17K bay area house and expanded from there. They had the ability to do so many decades ago but my dad chose to accept what he thought was a “better” job in Denver, CO. I ended up moving back here as a young adult after which time my parents divorced. They each subsequently remarried and neither ever moved back to CA. Both of my parents and their second spouses are all gone now.

As you can surmise, my family “support-system” is dwindling unless I choose to move to a “flyover state” where I have a brother and dozens of aunts, uncles and cousins still alive. Having lived in CA for nearly 50 yrs, that locale (where my parents are from) is still unpalatable to me for retirement purposes but things could change in that regard depending on what happens in the next couple of years.

It is the very prudent children of long-established Californians, like yourselves, who will have the most security in this state going forward, IMHO.

Although it is probably too large for me, I could stay in my home indefinitely and would be in good company since the vast majority of the homeowners in my area are boomers and seniors. But I have itchy feet and want to see what’s out there before I make a decision on the matter. In order to do that, I need to “empty my nest” first :=0

Folks, a word of advice. If any of you Gen X/Y’s out there are putting off having children until age 35, 40 or beyond or waiting to have another child or a last child, I would recommend you to do it earlier, rather than later. What exactly are you “waiting” for?

Because when you’re pushing 60, you’re not going to want to play “soccer mom/dad” or HS games anymore. You’re not going to want to go to your kid’s school’s “open-house” where you are 15-25 yrs older than most of the parents (but the same age as the teachers who are nearing retirement, lol). You’re going to instead want to move on with your life. Trust me on this :=0

[FlyerInHi]

It’s easier when you inherit the properties. But if you want to deliberately build a real estate portfolio, it takes some thought. For me, it’s fun and keeps me on the move.

Good to have some friends who share your interests in real estate to keep you motivated and for friendly competition. I can borrow trucks, tools, etc..

I want to get into commercial eventually. But it’s not easy for small investors.

[flyer]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=flyer]Agree that there are many “horror stories” out there concerning being a LL, but, we’ve just never had any really bad experiences over the years. Our kids want to take over when they “retire” from their current professions and move back to San Diego, and tell us they’re looking forward to it.

Also, many in our family pass our homes down, rather than renting them out, because we know our heirs may not be able to replace them in their lifetimes, and we want to keep them in the family for future generations to enjoy.

As in all things in life, what works for one person, does not necessarily work for another, so everyone simply has to decide what path is best for them.[/quote]

flyer, it sounds like you had/have enough “interested parties” in your family to both reside in and manage the properties you all decided to keep. I agree that it is foolish for an estate to sell a property situated on a very valuable piece of land in CA when its taxes are extremely low and will remain so as long as the property remains in the family, especially those which would be difficult to acquire today, such as ocean-view properties and properties situated on acreage.

I wish my parents had stayed in CA and kept their $17K bay area house and expanded from there. They had the ability to do so many decades ago but my dad chose to accept what he thought was a “better” job in Denver, CO. I ended up moving back here as a young adult after which time my parents divorced. They each subsequently remarried and neither ever moved back to CA. Both of my parents and their second spouses are all gone now.

As you can surmise, my family “support-system” is dwindling unless I choose to move to a “flyover state” where I have a brother and dozens of aunts, uncles and cousins still alive. Having lived in CA for nearly 50 yrs, that locale (where my parents are from) is still unpalatable to me for retirement purposes but things could change in that regard depending on what happens in the next couple of years.

It is the very prudent children of long-established Californians, like yourselves, who will have the most security in this state going forward, IMHO.

Although it is probably too large for me, I could stay in my home indefinitely and would be in good company since the vast majority of the homeowners in my area are boomers and seniors. But I have itchy feet and want to see what’s out there before I make a decision on the matter. In order to do that, I need to “empty my nest” first :=0

Folks, a word of advice. If any of you Gen X/Y’s out there are putting off having children until age 35, 40 or beyond or waiting to have another child or a last child, I would recommend you to do it earlier, rather than later. What exactly are you “waiting” for?

Because when you’re pushing 60, you’re not going to want to play “soccer mom/dad” or HS games anymore. You’re not going to want to go to your kid’s school’s “open-house” where you are 15-25 yrs older than most of the parents (but the same age as the teachers who are nearing retirement, lol). You’re going to instead want to move on with your life. Trust me on this :=0[/quote]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, BG.

Nothing in life is a “one size fits all.” There are many variables that make up the sum total of our lives. As you mentioned, we’ve all had different life experiences, and have made the best of life as it has come our way.

I’m glad to hear that you have a plan, and I have no doubt you will find exactly what you are looking for when the nest is empty–whether that involves moving or staying.

Everyone will get old, and the stats reveal that many people will never even make it to 50+,(and remain healthy, etc.) let alone have the resources to enjoy the balance of their lives, so, IMO, those of us in that category should be very grateful to have beat those very formidable odds.

[flyer]

Flyer, it’s true that much of the wealth you see in property today (at least in SAN) was created by the foresight of previous generations. That’s why we’ve tried to keep most all of our properties over the years.

Our family has been around San Diego for about 100 years, and I could tell you great stories about the players in this city who were involved in everything from raw land deals to residential and commercial development. It’s really fascinating.

Long stories short–many kept their fortunes, some did not, but it has been very interesting to watch the evolution.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flyer] . . . Everyone will get old, and the stats reveal that many people will never even make it to 50+,(and remain healthy, etc.) let alone have the resources to enjoy the balance of their lives, so, IMO, those of us in that category should be very grateful to have beat those very formidable odds.[/quote]

Yeah, I think about this all the time and feel eternally grateful for my health. I’m fully cognizant that I (or any of us) could get a “terminal” diagnosis or have a fatal accident at any time, through no fault of our own. I realize that a lot of people live for years, even decades with chronic disease and I am very grateful that I am not one of those people but have taken numerous steps over the years in an effort to prevent this from happening to me. I feel grateful that I will have the resources to live the life that I want to, however, the ability to obtain and hang onto those resources has taken a great deal of effort, patience and living within or below my means for many years.

I agree that lot of people out there within ten years of retirement age probably aren’t doing what it takes to become solvent (in the black) so they can remain solvent through their retirement years (barring any catastrophic inflation for commodities). It is likely that too many of them are still trying to give the impression that they are “keeping up the Joneses” but you can’t eat luxury vehicles, mcmansions, expensive vacations and bling. This “elephant in the room” is just really unpalatable for a lot of people so they bury their heads in the sand and hope for the best … personal responsibility be damned.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flyer]Flyer, it’s true that much of the wealth you see in property today (at least in SAN) was created by the foresight of previous generations. That’s why we’ve tried to keep most all of our properties over the years.

Our family has been around San Diego for about 100 years, and I could tell you great stories about the players in this city who were involved in everything from raw land deals to residential and commercial development. It’s really fascinating.

Long stories short–many kept their fortunes, some did not, but it has been very interesting to watch the evolution.[/quote]

Yes, flyer, I am aware and also acquainted with a handful of these “power brokers” who are all senior citizens now. They are early-rising, dapper, tireless octegenarians who answer SD city/county leaders’ calls to assist wherever and whenever they can, often at a moments notice. It is actually these folks who are the power-brokers behind your elected officials. In effect, they are running the city/county, running the show, literally and figurately speaking, from behind the veil of your elected official(s). Most of them are native San Diegans and the rest came here as children and they all care deeply about what happens in and to this region, having all been local government and local leading business leaders for well over 50 years.

Folks, just ask yourselves how this individual got this particular critical “impromptu” job and was able to successfully complete it in such a short time frame, obtaining a “win-win” situation for all parties.

http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2013/aug/20/filner-mediator-lawrence-irving/

http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2013/aug/22/man-with-velvet-gavel-j-lawrence-irving/

Barring any current health issues, who else would have gotten the job? When “mediation” was first mentioned by CA Goldsmith as a remedy to this unfortunate debacle, that was the FIRST name that ran through my head and I was not and am not the least bit surprised at the outcome.

Be grateful for these folks. They’re not going to live forever.

[paramount]

[quote=flyer]

Our family has been around San Diego for about 100 years…[/quote]

My family has been around “San Diego” for about 10,000 years.

[FlyerInHi]

Some families keep it, some don’t. Generally, kids who studied and bettered themselves kept and built upon inherited wealth.

WaPo has an article about the profligate sons in Georgian England who spent family fortunes

[flyer]

[quote=paramount][quote=flyer]

Our family has been around San Diego for about 100 years…[/quote]

My family has been around “San Diego” for about 10,000 years.[/quote]

Fantastic, paramount–you are very blessed!

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Anyone mind if I resurrect this thread? I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on whether we are witnessing a bubble or not now 6 months after this thread begun. I am seeing prices back where they were before the last crash in areas that crashed hard (mostly the mello roos heavy spots like 4s ranch, SEH, and points south). Those areas got hammered back in 06-08 but now are in some cases up 200-300K from 2008. I know there are variables not in play this time around but when I look at those places and people are buying homes with high MR at prices almost 300K higher than they were no more than 2 years ago, I have an ill feeling more trouble is ahead.

Thoughts?

[spdrun]

Repeat of the tax-credit-driven mini-bubble of 2009-10, with a more dramatic rise (3.5% vs 4.5% interest rates had more of an effect on monthly payment than a max. $8000 credit ever did) and possibly a less dramatic slowdown (owing to the economy being in slightly better shape than in 2010).

[Author]

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