Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now?

[Bugs]

Eck. In all honesty, the question wasn’t addressed to me in the first place, and I just stuck my two cents in; so I guess I deserve whatever comes as a result of that.

The one thing I would point out is that my perspective is different than that of a realty agent because I don’t deal with the front end of the transaction – the establishment of the listing price, the marketing, the negotiations, the contract, and all that. I only see the end results, and deal with the end result of other transactions. I usually am looking backward in time for what I can demonstrate the value to be based on events past. By definition an agent is dealing with the prospective buyer and the prospective sale price and they would generally be looking forward.

[SD Realtor]

sdr if you read my post correctly you saw that I only studied one map code which is the one that they live in. As I said in my post I would do some more research to see if I could find comps that would support a higher price. I would agree that a more comprehensive search should be done to establish a more concrete basis for setting the price. Let me see what more numbers say.

Also in a declining market new ground is always broken towards the downside.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr if you read my post correctly you saw that I only studied one map code which is the one that they live in. As I said in my post I would do some more research to see if I could find comps that would support a higher price. I would agree that a more comprehensive search should be done to establish a more concrete basis for setting the price. Let me see what more numbers say.

Also in a declining market new ground is always broken towards the downside.

SD Realtor

[patientrenter]

Like temeculaguy, I tip my hat to the posters on this thread for a civilized approach to disagreement, focused on facts and reason. It’s heartening to see the grown-ups showing a good example for the kids.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Like temeculaguy, I tip my hat to the posters on this thread for a civilized approach to disagreement, focused on facts and reason. It’s heartening to see the grown-ups showing a good example for the kids.

Patient renter in OC

[SD Realtor]

sdr perhaps when you return you will have time to reply. I looked at the comps you brought up… I apologize that I did not have time to run a more comprehensive analysis today. Your points have merit. I wanted to comment on the few comps you brought up…

“There is a 4BR/3BA/2 car gar 2438 sf home with 1200 in Mello Roos in escrow with a range of 850 to 875 that sold in 4 days. My guess is they got 875K.”

You are correct. This home does appear to be quite comparable to the home brought up in the post. Recall that vrud said that they purchased the home for 889k. At a range of 850k-875k they are below the sales price not even including closing costs and commissions. This home was not in the single mapcode I searched.

“There is a 5BR/3ba/3 car gar 2828 sq ft in escrow with a range of 899 to 999 that backed to a pretty busy street (Which is a KILLER!) and sold in 94 days.”

True that it backs to Carmel Country, a very busy street. and yes it is in escrow. Note that it is bigger then the home vrud posted about. Also we do not know the condition. Your point is well taken though, personally I cannot stand noise so I would rather have a marginally smaller home in a quiet neighborhood then a larger home backing to a noisy street. It will be interesting to see what they get for this home.

“There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.”

Respectfully I disagree that this is a comparable home. It is clearly larger by more then a nominal amount. It also is on a larger lot.

A good example of someone trying to get the price range that vruds friends are hoping for would be the home on Intermezzo Way. It is a 4/2.5 that is 2492. So it is smaller, so perhaps your recommendation to the Del Mar Glen owners would be to price higher? There is even a second one on Intermezzo at 970k. These listings back up your points. Again these are active listings and not yet in escrow. I guess we will see…

Anyways one helpful piece of information vrud would be did the owners of Del Mar Glen upgrade the home?

sdr your points are well taken. I still tend to think that it will tough to get the home sold at the 2005 sales price but yes, pehaps I do have a more negative bias then most.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr perhaps when you return you will have time to reply. I looked at the comps you brought up… I apologize that I did not have time to run a more comprehensive analysis today. Your points have merit. I wanted to comment on the few comps you brought up…

“There is a 4BR/3BA/2 car gar 2438 sf home with 1200 in Mello Roos in escrow with a range of 850 to 875 that sold in 4 days. My guess is they got 875K.”

You are correct. This home does appear to be quite comparable to the home brought up in the post. Recall that vrud said that they purchased the home for 889k. At a range of 850k-875k they are below the sales price not even including closing costs and commissions. This home was not in the single mapcode I searched.

“There is a 5BR/3ba/3 car gar 2828 sq ft in escrow with a range of 899 to 999 that backed to a pretty busy street (Which is a KILLER!) and sold in 94 days.”

True that it backs to Carmel Country, a very busy street. and yes it is in escrow. Note that it is bigger then the home vrud posted about. Also we do not know the condition. Your point is well taken though, personally I cannot stand noise so I would rather have a marginally smaller home in a quiet neighborhood then a larger home backing to a noisy street. It will be interesting to see what they get for this home.

“There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.”

Respectfully I disagree that this is a comparable home. It is clearly larger by more then a nominal amount. It also is on a larger lot.

A good example of someone trying to get the price range that vruds friends are hoping for would be the home on Intermezzo Way. It is a 4/2.5 that is 2492. So it is smaller, so perhaps your recommendation to the Del Mar Glen owners would be to price higher? There is even a second one on Intermezzo at 970k. These listings back up your points. Again these are active listings and not yet in escrow. I guess we will see…

Anyways one helpful piece of information vrud would be did the owners of Del Mar Glen upgrade the home?

sdr your points are well taken. I still tend to think that it will tough to get the home sold at the 2005 sales price but yes, pehaps I do have a more negative bias then most.

SD Realtor

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I am not sure by reading the original post, that these people are trying to sell this home. I got the impression the poster was just hoping his friends had lost money on paper to prove he was right about the RE downturn. I would certainly hope that my friends are not rooting against me like that, or they need to be replaced.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I am not sure by reading the original post, that these people are trying to sell this home. I got the impression the poster was just hoping his friends had lost money on paper to prove he was right about the RE downturn. I would certainly hope that my friends are not rooting against me like that, or they need to be replaced.

[sdrealtor]

Suprise surprise!! Grammy has a wireless router in her home in South Fla.

First point: I agree with Chris 100% and that was why I jumped in to begin with. I remember vrud saying several things in the past that led me to the same conclusion.

SEcond point: I disagree that the larger comp I provided isnt relevant. It is in the immediate area, has 5 BR’s, 3 car garage and is of the same general vintage. While it does not provide an equivalent value it sets an upper bracket on the value. It was very plain and if it sold for $1M+ it helps justify a reasonableness to a 900K price for a smaller 5BR house in the area in the eyes of the buyer.

Third point: Similar size (and slightly smaller) 4BR homes in South Carlsbad have been selling very well between 825 and 875K the last few months. CV has traditionally sold for about 10%/100K more in like for like sales. With 5BR’s a 3 car garage and sq ftage at the top end of the 4BR’s I think about in South Carlsbad I have no problem thinking 900K. SD R did you not just sell a 30 year old 1900 sq ft 4/2 with a 2 car garage for 730K in South Carlsbad? Your first post seemed to imply a value closer to 800K which would indicate a short memory.

Time to hit the beach

[sdrealtor]

Suprise surprise!! Grammy has a wireless router in her home in South Fla.

First point: I agree with Chris 100% and that was why I jumped in to begin with. I remember vrud saying several things in the past that led me to the same conclusion.

SEcond point: I disagree that the larger comp I provided isnt relevant. It is in the immediate area, has 5 BR’s, 3 car garage and is of the same general vintage. While it does not provide an equivalent value it sets an upper bracket on the value. It was very plain and if it sold for $1M+ it helps justify a reasonableness to a 900K price for a smaller 5BR house in the area in the eyes of the buyer.

Third point: Similar size (and slightly smaller) 4BR homes in South Carlsbad have been selling very well between 825 and 875K the last few months. CV has traditionally sold for about 10%/100K more in like for like sales. With 5BR’s a 3 car garage and sq ftage at the top end of the 4BR’s I think about in South Carlsbad I have no problem thinking 900K. SD R did you not just sell a 30 year old 1900 sq ft 4/2 with a 2 car garage for 730K in South Carlsbad? Your first post seemed to imply a value closer to 800K which would indicate a short memory.

Time to hit the beach

[Bugs]

I (probably) wouldn’t have come out in the low $800s, but I see no indication in that neighborhood that prices are INCREASING relative to earlier in this year.

You may not care for the sales in those two neighborhoods but that’s what is there. Just to remind you, neither the 02/2007 nor the 03/2007 sales in this neighborhood are dated from the perspectives of even the most paranoid of lenders. That’s 2 closed sales in addition to the 6.5 month old sale in that immediate neighborhood. Even if I used a more recent sale from the nearest “similar” neighborhood to the north as my 3rd sale without adjusting for its demonstrated superiority in the market I’d still be compelled to give more weight to the more proximate sales. Not only are they more similar in location, they were built by the same developer and subcontractors, they have more similar design and floorplans, and they would have sold with similar options.

If anything, the 6.5 month old sale is the one that supports the highest value indicator – as an agent you should be encouraging its use, not discouraging it.

Remind me one more time about the 3 most important factors in real estate? (Location, Location, Location)

If we’re talking about a subdivision home, it would take an act of God to justify going outside the neighborhood in order to exclude inside sales that bracket our property’s characteristics. I would have to be able to positively demonstrate that prices are INCREASING relative to the dates of sale of those earlier sales, enough so to completely discount them as being indicative of the current value. In other words, I’d be saying the market is so hot that a 4-month old sale is too dated to use at all.

I know you’re bullish on this neighborhood but can you prove SIGNIFICANT price increases in the last 6 months? Let’s compare the subject’s own prior sale in 2005 with the early 2007 sales; does that indicate increases to you? I’m just not seeing it.

Maybe things will look better next month after a couple more pendings close; but I doubt it.

[Bugs]

I (probably) wouldn’t have come out in the low $800s, but I see no indication in that neighborhood that prices are INCREASING relative to earlier in this year.

You may not care for the sales in those two neighborhoods but that’s what is there. Just to remind you, neither the 02/2007 nor the 03/2007 sales in this neighborhood are dated from the perspectives of even the most paranoid of lenders. That’s 2 closed sales in addition to the 6.5 month old sale in that immediate neighborhood. Even if I used a more recent sale from the nearest “similar” neighborhood to the north as my 3rd sale without adjusting for its demonstrated superiority in the market I’d still be compelled to give more weight to the more proximate sales. Not only are they more similar in location, they were built by the same developer and subcontractors, they have more similar design and floorplans, and they would have sold with similar options.

If anything, the 6.5 month old sale is the one that supports the highest value indicator – as an agent you should be encouraging its use, not discouraging it.

Remind me one more time about the 3 most important factors in real estate? (Location, Location, Location)

If we’re talking about a subdivision home, it would take an act of God to justify going outside the neighborhood in order to exclude inside sales that bracket our property’s characteristics. I would have to be able to positively demonstrate that prices are INCREASING relative to the dates of sale of those earlier sales, enough so to completely discount them as being indicative of the current value. In other words, I’d be saying the market is so hot that a 4-month old sale is too dated to use at all.

I know you’re bullish on this neighborhood but can you prove SIGNIFICANT price increases in the last 6 months? Let’s compare the subject’s own prior sale in 2005 with the early 2007 sales; does that indicate increases to you? I’m just not seeing it.

Maybe things will look better next month after a couple more pendings close; but I doubt it.

[sdrealtor]

Once again to my original point tou you. That is the difference between appraised and market value. You can only look at closed like for like sales, we use a combination of that plus current market conditions which would support a higher value IMH. BTW, I am writing from a l;isting agent perspective.

Just curious as to what you would say the value is?

[sdrealtor]

Once again to my original point tou you. That is the difference between appraised and market value. You can only look at closed like for like sales, we use a combination of that plus current market conditions which would support a higher value IMH. BTW, I am writing from a l;isting agent perspective.

Just curious as to what you would say the value is?

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