Fire will help market

[moneymaker]

Countrywide saying that they will restructure loans is nothing more than trying to hype their stock in my opinion. Prices have met a lot of resistance so far for many good reasons. Banks will start renting out foreclosed properties just to shore up finances. It will be a very good time for property management companies in the next year.I’m looking for market price correction in March of 08. Which interestingly enough will be a first for housing as prices historically go up in the spring.The fire will have no effect on the overall economy.I don’t know where the bottom will be, but we are a long way from it price wise.Any guesses?

[the dingo]

Blackbox,
Would you not agree that the down turn is taking longer then most thought, and people will eventually start to tire of waiting?

[the dingo]

Blackbox,
Would you not agree that the down turn is taking longer then most thought, and people will eventually start to tire of waiting?

[the dingo]

Blackbox,
Would you not agree that the down turn is taking longer then most thought, and people will eventually start to tire of waiting?

[ocrenter]

this is what my friend in Seattle said to me:

him: hey, didn’t SD have a major fire 4 years ago?

me: yes, it was actually worse in term of homes burnt.

him: wow… that’s 2 major catastrophies in 4 years, so you guys have one of these every couple of years?

I’m not saying I agree with him, but you can see how the rest of the country would look at things here thru those comments. again, we already have a skewed out migration pattern, this will not help reverse that trend.

[ocrenter]

this is what my friend in Seattle said to me:

him: hey, didn’t SD have a major fire 4 years ago?

me: yes, it was actually worse in term of homes burnt.

him: wow… that’s 2 major catastrophies in 4 years, so you guys have one of these every couple of years?

I’m not saying I agree with him, but you can see how the rest of the country would look at things here thru those comments. again, we already have a skewed out migration pattern, this will not help reverse that trend.

[ocrenter]

this is what my friend in Seattle said to me:

him: hey, didn’t SD have a major fire 4 years ago?

me: yes, it was actually worse in term of homes burnt.

him: wow… that’s 2 major catastrophies in 4 years, so you guys have one of these every couple of years?

I’m not saying I agree with him, but you can see how the rest of the country would look at things here thru those comments. again, we already have a skewed out migration pattern, this will not help reverse that trend.

[blackbox]

Dingo,

I always said that the same Psychological force, fueled by insane mortgage lending practices, created the huge upside of home pricing in the past years will be the same sending home pricing to insanely low prices, but this time fueled by foreclosures. That force was the idea that if you did not buy this month, you would be locked out of housing forever. On the downside, the force will be the idea that if you buy today, next month the prices will be cheaper. No one wants to overpay, specially when you can see the guy who paid less next door every day for the rest of your life. The housing market will start to rebound, and you will get great low prices, when generally speaking, no one thinks that housing will ever recover. A day will come when people will truely give up the idea that this market will ever recover, which it will, but that is the bottom. When people truely give up, that is when you buy! When you hear, “wow, can you believe how little someone paid for the home or condo next door? That’s insane” With fear or disgust in their eyes. Get ready to pull the trigger!

[blackbox]

Dingo,

I always said that the same Psychological force, fueled by insane mortgage lending practices, created the huge upside of home pricing in the past years will be the same sending home pricing to insanely low prices, but this time fueled by foreclosures. That force was the idea that if you did not buy this month, you would be locked out of housing forever. On the downside, the force will be the idea that if you buy today, next month the prices will be cheaper. No one wants to overpay, specially when you can see the guy who paid less next door every day for the rest of your life. The housing market will start to rebound, and you will get great low prices, when generally speaking, no one thinks that housing will ever recover. A day will come when people will truely give up the idea that this market will ever recover, which it will, but that is the bottom. When people truely give up, that is when you buy! When you hear, “wow, can you believe how little someone paid for the home or condo next door? That’s insane” With fear or disgust in their eyes. Get ready to pull the trigger!

[blackbox]

Dingo,

I always said that the same Psychological force, fueled by insane mortgage lending practices, created the huge upside of home pricing in the past years will be the same sending home pricing to insanely low prices, but this time fueled by foreclosures. That force was the idea that if you did not buy this month, you would be locked out of housing forever. On the downside, the force will be the idea that if you buy today, next month the prices will be cheaper. No one wants to overpay, specially when you can see the guy who paid less next door every day for the rest of your life. The housing market will start to rebound, and you will get great low prices, when generally speaking, no one thinks that housing will ever recover. A day will come when people will truely give up the idea that this market will ever recover, which it will, but that is the bottom. When people truely give up, that is when you buy! When you hear, “wow, can you believe how little someone paid for the home or condo next door? That’s insane” With fear or disgust in their eyes. Get ready to pull the trigger!

[the dingo]

After my last post I opened the business section of the UT and found a couple of articles on this very line of thought. Looks like Barratt homes and KB (as I remember) are getting into the business of rebuilding the fire destroyed homes. It also suggest a boost in the local economy.

[the dingo]

After my last post I opened the business section of the UT and found a couple of articles on this very line of thought. Looks like Barratt homes and KB (as I remember) are getting into the business of rebuilding the fire destroyed homes. It also suggest a boost in the local economy.

[the dingo]

After my last post I opened the business section of the UT and found a couple of articles on this very line of thought. Looks like Barratt homes and KB (as I remember) are getting into the business of rebuilding the fire destroyed homes. It also suggest a boost in the local economy.

[Ex-SD]

dingo: It takes a looooooong time to rebuild in SD after a fire due to the ridiculous bureaucratic pile of paperwork & approvals that must first be dealt with. Also, prior to the fires, San Diego’s vacancy rate for rentals had been rising (according to a story in the U.T. several months ago). Prices didn’t go to the heights that they achieved overnight and they won’t come down overnight. It will take time and anyone who buys in SoCal within the next four years (at the earliest) will have paid too much for their home. The bottom is a long way off in relation to time and $$$$$$. There are too many forces working against sellers to prop up the prices and all the signs point to a return of the prices that we saw in 1998-1999.

[Ex-SD]

dingo: It takes a looooooong time to rebuild in SD after a fire due to the ridiculous bureaucratic pile of paperwork & approvals that must first be dealt with. Also, prior to the fires, San Diego’s vacancy rate for rentals had been rising (according to a story in the U.T. several months ago). Prices didn’t go to the heights that they achieved overnight and they won’t come down overnight. It will take time and anyone who buys in SoCal within the next four years (at the earliest) will have paid too much for their home. The bottom is a long way off in relation to time and $$$$$$. There are too many forces working against sellers to prop up the prices and all the signs point to a return of the prices that we saw in 1998-1999.

[Author]

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