Fire will help market

[the dingo]

Okay, so hear is what my boss said. Sounds like it could have some merit.
1. The fires will boost the local economy by adding construction jobs. Over a 1000 homes need to be rebuilt.
2. The displaced people will need somewhere to live for the next 18 months. The rent market is already tight.
A raise in rents could make buying seem a better idea.\
3. This coupled with the 80,000 loans currently being restructured and a possible continued cut in the mortgage rates could soften the rate of decline in the market. While prices have been declining, most of us expected it to be at a much more rapid pace. Many of my friends are saying that it is looking like things are not dropping fast enough and feel all the bail out efforts might make this a time to buy. Basically, they feel that the system of survival of the fittest within capitalism has been breeched by all of the bail out efforts. Basically in this country, there are no consequences for foolish decisions.
Thoughts?

[the dingo]

P.S. please forgive all the typos/

[the dingo]

P.S. please forgive all the typos/

[the dingo]

P.S. please forgive all the typos/

[VoZangre]

Stitches or band-aids?

to stanch this wound something needs be done…

over the past few months i’ve done a ton of reading…

what little i know makes me think the “positive” impact will be negligible

[VoZangre]

Stitches or band-aids?

to stanch this wound something needs be done…

over the past few months i’ve done a ton of reading…

what little i know makes me think the “positive” impact will be negligible

[VoZangre]

Stitches or band-aids?

to stanch this wound something needs be done…

over the past few months i’ve done a ton of reading…

what little i know makes me think the “positive” impact will be negligible

[ocrenter]

out of the numbers of concerned phone calls from family and friends, the consensus is… they ain’t gonna even think about moving down to SD anytime soon, FireProof Ranch or not.

one major fire in a decade or so, minimal psychological impact.

two major fires in 4 years, crossing SD off their lists.

[ocrenter]

out of the numbers of concerned phone calls from family and friends, the consensus is… they ain’t gonna even think about moving down to SD anytime soon, FireProof Ranch or not.

one major fire in a decade or so, minimal psychological impact.

two major fires in 4 years, crossing SD off their lists.

[ocrenter]

out of the numbers of concerned phone calls from family and friends, the consensus is… they ain’t gonna even think about moving down to SD anytime soon, FireProof Ranch or not.

one major fire in a decade or so, minimal psychological impact.

two major fires in 4 years, crossing SD off their lists.

[blackbox]

There is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.

Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.

[blackbox]

There is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.

Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.

[blackbox]

There is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.

Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.

[moneymaker]

Countrywide saying that they will restructure loans is nothing more than trying to hype their stock in my opinion. Prices have met a lot of resistance so far for many good reasons. Banks will start renting out foreclosed properties just to shore up finances. It will be a very good time for property management companies in the next year.I’m looking for market price correction in March of 08. Which interestingly enough will be a first for housing as prices historically go up in the spring.The fire will have no effect on the overall economy.I don’t know where the bottom will be, but we are a long way from it price wise.Any guesses?

[moneymaker]

Countrywide saying that they will restructure loans is nothing more than trying to hype their stock in my opinion. Prices have met a lot of resistance so far for many good reasons. Banks will start renting out foreclosed properties just to shore up finances. It will be a very good time for property management companies in the next year.I’m looking for market price correction in March of 08. Which interestingly enough will be a first for housing as prices historically go up in the spring.The fire will have no effect on the overall economy.I don’t know where the bottom will be, but we are a long way from it price wise.Any guesses?

[Author]

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