Economics and Investing

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!

The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.

[EconProf]

BobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.

[EconProf]

BobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.

[EconProf]

BobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.

[EconProf]

BobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.

[EconProf]

BobS
Former…and Deadzone
I’m well aware that the biggest profits have been made by those few who long ago saw this decline and courageously acted on it. The big banks are down maybe 1/3 this year, the builders by more. Anyone gutsy enough to go against conventional wisdom optimism by profiting from their picks has put their money where their mouth is and deserves praise.
As for me, I made plenty on San Diego RE during the good years (commercial, condos, apts, houses) sold most of my holdings, and now want to profit from what I believe is a safe bet–the decline now solidly in place that will likely continue and maybe accelerate.
Am also aware that going short on any stock is treacherous, and as for options, the vast majority of players (gamblers?) lose. Still, done right, it is actually a conservative approach. My remaining RE holdings in San Diego are going down along with the market, and a short position is a hedge, cushioning the loss.

[RatherOpinionated]

When I mean crowd sentiment I’m not speaking of a narrow groups of people such as this board, but am referring to the much more widely followed and accepted Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll. Sorry for the confusion. But again, my bet is BobS was looking to buy tech stocks in late 1999/2000, and now wants to short home builders. Hence, contrarian indicator.

Best Regards,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

When I mean crowd sentiment I’m not speaking of a narrow groups of people such as this board, but am referring to the much more widely followed and accepted Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll. Sorry for the confusion. But again, my bet is BobS was looking to buy tech stocks in late 1999/2000, and now wants to short home builders. Hence, contrarian indicator.

Best Regards,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

When I mean crowd sentiment I’m not speaking of a narrow groups of people such as this board, but am referring to the much more widely followed and accepted Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll. Sorry for the confusion. But again, my bet is BobS was looking to buy tech stocks in late 1999/2000, and now wants to short home builders. Hence, contrarian indicator.

Best Regards,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

When I mean crowd sentiment I’m not speaking of a narrow groups of people such as this board, but am referring to the much more widely followed and accepted Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll. Sorry for the confusion. But again, my bet is BobS was looking to buy tech stocks in late 1999/2000, and now wants to short home builders. Hence, contrarian indicator.

Best Regards,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

When I mean crowd sentiment I’m not speaking of a narrow groups of people such as this board, but am referring to the much more widely followed and accepted Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll. Sorry for the confusion. But again, my bet is BobS was looking to buy tech stocks in late 1999/2000, and now wants to short home builders. Hence, contrarian indicator.

Best Regards,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[drunkle]

when etrade went from 15 to 3.50, i made a decent amount. i also lost a decent amount from wrong timing.

cfc has been good to me.

freddie mac has been good, but when it hit 45, i didn’t think it would slide any more. did it ever and i missed out.

i’ve lost plenty from various bets ranging from wells fargo to intel. can’t remember all the losers and dont want to.

i’m still playing cfc and etrade. citi, bofa, meritage, hov, dr horton, lennar have been added to the play list. it looks like a good time to get in on jan+ puts. the run up of the past week has seen movement of some 20% in these stocks. based purely on rate cut speculation. meanwhile, the news has been all bad. i’m betting (literally) that there’s plenty of action left.

over the past 4-5 months, the market has gone roller coaster, but these housing and financial stocks are on a death march downwards, never reaching their prior highs. this is like the 3rd run up… is it the last? are people sick of hearing “it’s the bottom for financials and home builders!” yet and ready to just cut altogether? the news is out about goldman shorting the market, are the other funds going to join in?

most interesting are the straddles, stocks like gm and citi have massive straddles. someone is making a killing on both the run up and the subsequent slide…

[drunkle]

when etrade went from 15 to 3.50, i made a decent amount. i also lost a decent amount from wrong timing.

cfc has been good to me.

freddie mac has been good, but when it hit 45, i didn’t think it would slide any more. did it ever and i missed out.

i’ve lost plenty from various bets ranging from wells fargo to intel. can’t remember all the losers and dont want to.

i’m still playing cfc and etrade. citi, bofa, meritage, hov, dr horton, lennar have been added to the play list. it looks like a good time to get in on jan+ puts. the run up of the past week has seen movement of some 20% in these stocks. based purely on rate cut speculation. meanwhile, the news has been all bad. i’m betting (literally) that there’s plenty of action left.

over the past 4-5 months, the market has gone roller coaster, but these housing and financial stocks are on a death march downwards, never reaching their prior highs. this is like the 3rd run up… is it the last? are people sick of hearing “it’s the bottom for financials and home builders!” yet and ready to just cut altogether? the news is out about goldman shorting the market, are the other funds going to join in?

most interesting are the straddles, stocks like gm and citi have massive straddles. someone is making a killing on both the run up and the subsequent slide…

[drunkle]

when etrade went from 15 to 3.50, i made a decent amount. i also lost a decent amount from wrong timing.

cfc has been good to me.

freddie mac has been good, but when it hit 45, i didn’t think it would slide any more. did it ever and i missed out.

i’ve lost plenty from various bets ranging from wells fargo to intel. can’t remember all the losers and dont want to.

i’m still playing cfc and etrade. citi, bofa, meritage, hov, dr horton, lennar have been added to the play list. it looks like a good time to get in on jan+ puts. the run up of the past week has seen movement of some 20% in these stocks. based purely on rate cut speculation. meanwhile, the news has been all bad. i’m betting (literally) that there’s plenty of action left.

over the past 4-5 months, the market has gone roller coaster, but these housing and financial stocks are on a death march downwards, never reaching their prior highs. this is like the 3rd run up… is it the last? are people sick of hearing “it’s the bottom for financials and home builders!” yet and ready to just cut altogether? the news is out about goldman shorting the market, are the other funds going to join in?

most interesting are the straddles, stocks like gm and citi have massive straddles. someone is making a killing on both the run up and the subsequent slide…

[drunkle]

when etrade went from 15 to 3.50, i made a decent amount. i also lost a decent amount from wrong timing.

cfc has been good to me.

freddie mac has been good, but when it hit 45, i didn’t think it would slide any more. did it ever and i missed out.

i’ve lost plenty from various bets ranging from wells fargo to intel. can’t remember all the losers and dont want to.

i’m still playing cfc and etrade. citi, bofa, meritage, hov, dr horton, lennar have been added to the play list. it looks like a good time to get in on jan+ puts. the run up of the past week has seen movement of some 20% in these stocks. based purely on rate cut speculation. meanwhile, the news has been all bad. i’m betting (literally) that there’s plenty of action left.

over the past 4-5 months, the market has gone roller coaster, but these housing and financial stocks are on a death march downwards, never reaching their prior highs. this is like the 3rd run up… is it the last? are people sick of hearing “it’s the bottom for financials and home builders!” yet and ready to just cut altogether? the news is out about goldman shorting the market, are the other funds going to join in?

most interesting are the straddles, stocks like gm and citi have massive straddles. someone is making a killing on both the run up and the subsequent slide…

[Author]

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