Can you feel the shift?

[Aecetia]

The new century version of ghost towns after the boom went bust….

[hipmatt]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

Now if we assume that the home was worth about 95k in 1995 or 1996, which was the bottom before… and it sold in 2005 for 389k.
Thats a whopping 409% appreciation in 9 years. That is just insane.

No, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that home fell back to $160k. I think its a less insane possibility. Don’t forget that markets tend to over correct too.

[hipmatt]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

Now if we assume that the home was worth about 95k in 1995 or 1996, which was the bottom before… and it sold in 2005 for 389k.
Thats a whopping 409% appreciation in 9 years. That is just insane.

No, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that home fell back to $160k. I think its a less insane possibility. Don’t forget that markets tend to over correct too.

[hipmatt]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

Now if we assume that the home was worth about 95k in 1995 or 1996, which was the bottom before… and it sold in 2005 for 389k.
Thats a whopping 409% appreciation in 9 years. That is just insane.

No, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that home fell back to $160k. I think its a less insane possibility. Don’t forget that markets tend to over correct too.

[hipmatt]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

Now if we assume that the home was worth about 95k in 1995 or 1996, which was the bottom before… and it sold in 2005 for 389k.
Thats a whopping 409% appreciation in 9 years. That is just insane.

No, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that home fell back to $160k. I think its a less insane possibility. Don’t forget that markets tend to over correct too.

[hipmatt]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

Now if we assume that the home was worth about 95k in 1995 or 1996, which was the bottom before… and it sold in 2005 for 389k.
Thats a whopping 409% appreciation in 9 years. That is just insane.

No, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that home fell back to $160k. I think its a less insane possibility. Don’t forget that markets tend to over correct too.

[NotCranky]

“Would you really let reaching a “seemingly low price” determine the bottom? I would personally look at other factors such as the amount of inventory, # of credit worthy buyers, state of the economy (specifically local), and home prices to rents/incomes instead. I’ve seen homes quadruple in value over 10 years. Just because they have fallen nearly 50% doesn’t mean they can’t fall more.”

I gotta admit Matt that has a ring to it…despite my comments earlier in the week. There are going to be some completely wrecked markets. Like I said, you are up there.

When you do the math on the gas, it really comes out that badly for the majority who live there? Why wouldn’t it just become the hybrid or maybe the senior capitol of the world at a certain point.The whole place could run on electricty and geritol.

[NotCranky]

“Would you really let reaching a “seemingly low price” determine the bottom? I would personally look at other factors such as the amount of inventory, # of credit worthy buyers, state of the economy (specifically local), and home prices to rents/incomes instead. I’ve seen homes quadruple in value over 10 years. Just because they have fallen nearly 50% doesn’t mean they can’t fall more.”

I gotta admit Matt that has a ring to it…despite my comments earlier in the week. There are going to be some completely wrecked markets. Like I said, you are up there.

When you do the math on the gas, it really comes out that badly for the majority who live there? Why wouldn’t it just become the hybrid or maybe the senior capitol of the world at a certain point.The whole place could run on electricty and geritol.

[NotCranky]

“Would you really let reaching a “seemingly low price” determine the bottom? I would personally look at other factors such as the amount of inventory, # of credit worthy buyers, state of the economy (specifically local), and home prices to rents/incomes instead. I’ve seen homes quadruple in value over 10 years. Just because they have fallen nearly 50% doesn’t mean they can’t fall more.”

I gotta admit Matt that has a ring to it…despite my comments earlier in the week. There are going to be some completely wrecked markets. Like I said, you are up there.

When you do the math on the gas, it really comes out that badly for the majority who live there? Why wouldn’t it just become the hybrid or maybe the senior capitol of the world at a certain point.The whole place could run on electricty and geritol.

[NotCranky]

“Would you really let reaching a “seemingly low price” determine the bottom? I would personally look at other factors such as the amount of inventory, # of credit worthy buyers, state of the economy (specifically local), and home prices to rents/incomes instead. I’ve seen homes quadruple in value over 10 years. Just because they have fallen nearly 50% doesn’t mean they can’t fall more.”

I gotta admit Matt that has a ring to it…despite my comments earlier in the week. There are going to be some completely wrecked markets. Like I said, you are up there.

When you do the math on the gas, it really comes out that badly for the majority who live there? Why wouldn’t it just become the hybrid or maybe the senior capitol of the world at a certain point.The whole place could run on electricty and geritol.

[NotCranky]

“Would you really let reaching a “seemingly low price” determine the bottom? I would personally look at other factors such as the amount of inventory, # of credit worthy buyers, state of the economy (specifically local), and home prices to rents/incomes instead. I’ve seen homes quadruple in value over 10 years. Just because they have fallen nearly 50% doesn’t mean they can’t fall more.”

I gotta admit Matt that has a ring to it…despite my comments earlier in the week. There are going to be some completely wrecked markets. Like I said, you are up there.

When you do the math on the gas, it really comes out that badly for the majority who live there? Why wouldn’t it just become the hybrid or maybe the senior capitol of the world at a certain point.The whole place could run on electricty and geritol.

[cashflow]

I don’t think it will ever be a ghost town or homes condemned…I think that’s even too bearish for me! Temecula is a really nice community for families still and will continue to be, I think the other areas of Riverside county will be hurt big time as Temecula goes down, more will be able to afford to live there…no incentive to live in the middle of nowhere in Hemet or Moreno Valley where people were pushed out to as they were priced out.

TG, Didn’t you post just a few days ago that you couldn’t believe the pace of the NOD’s coming in over the past days and week? How can you state that you think it would be bottoming out?

I hate to admit it but we’ve been actively looking, only in that our lease is almost up and we thought, well what the hell if we can lowball a screaming deal outta a bank, than we’ll do it. The spring bounce though has kinda put some breaks on our plan. All the homes in the high 200-low 300’s in Temecula have so many people touring, it’s like it’s boomtown again (at least from our observations). I’ve seen some other homes that were priced at lower per sq/ft than those posted.
What about this one at 100/sqft.?
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1609827
It’s in Redhawk which is nice, but I guess it backs to a street, so not ideal location. This generated lots of interest.
From our observations the buyers that are out there in the lower price range jumping on these properties appear to be mostly first time homebuyers, maybe previously priced out and now are excited they can finally jump in, so they are. We personally believe that this will be a short wave of able buyers that will dry up as quickly as it started. Just not that many able buyers out there anymore….but only time will tell.
On another note, any ideas on how to search out if there’s a Foreclosure or NOD on a particular property around there?
Drove by this VERY vacant home and wondering what the deal is? Address: 44381 Coronado (or it may be Ynez address as it faces Ynez but driveway is on Coronado)
If you have any access and insight let me know!

[cashflow]

I don’t think it will ever be a ghost town or homes condemned…I think that’s even too bearish for me! Temecula is a really nice community for families still and will continue to be, I think the other areas of Riverside county will be hurt big time as Temecula goes down, more will be able to afford to live there…no incentive to live in the middle of nowhere in Hemet or Moreno Valley where people were pushed out to as they were priced out.

TG, Didn’t you post just a few days ago that you couldn’t believe the pace of the NOD’s coming in over the past days and week? How can you state that you think it would be bottoming out?

I hate to admit it but we’ve been actively looking, only in that our lease is almost up and we thought, well what the hell if we can lowball a screaming deal outta a bank, than we’ll do it. The spring bounce though has kinda put some breaks on our plan. All the homes in the high 200-low 300’s in Temecula have so many people touring, it’s like it’s boomtown again (at least from our observations). I’ve seen some other homes that were priced at lower per sq/ft than those posted.
What about this one at 100/sqft.?
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1609827
It’s in Redhawk which is nice, but I guess it backs to a street, so not ideal location. This generated lots of interest.
From our observations the buyers that are out there in the lower price range jumping on these properties appear to be mostly first time homebuyers, maybe previously priced out and now are excited they can finally jump in, so they are. We personally believe that this will be a short wave of able buyers that will dry up as quickly as it started. Just not that many able buyers out there anymore….but only time will tell.
On another note, any ideas on how to search out if there’s a Foreclosure or NOD on a particular property around there?
Drove by this VERY vacant home and wondering what the deal is? Address: 44381 Coronado (or it may be Ynez address as it faces Ynez but driveway is on Coronado)
If you have any access and insight let me know!

[cashflow]

I don’t think it will ever be a ghost town or homes condemned…I think that’s even too bearish for me! Temecula is a really nice community for families still and will continue to be, I think the other areas of Riverside county will be hurt big time as Temecula goes down, more will be able to afford to live there…no incentive to live in the middle of nowhere in Hemet or Moreno Valley where people were pushed out to as they were priced out.

TG, Didn’t you post just a few days ago that you couldn’t believe the pace of the NOD’s coming in over the past days and week? How can you state that you think it would be bottoming out?

I hate to admit it but we’ve been actively looking, only in that our lease is almost up and we thought, well what the hell if we can lowball a screaming deal outta a bank, than we’ll do it. The spring bounce though has kinda put some breaks on our plan. All the homes in the high 200-low 300’s in Temecula have so many people touring, it’s like it’s boomtown again (at least from our observations). I’ve seen some other homes that were priced at lower per sq/ft than those posted.
What about this one at 100/sqft.?
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1609827
It’s in Redhawk which is nice, but I guess it backs to a street, so not ideal location. This generated lots of interest.
From our observations the buyers that are out there in the lower price range jumping on these properties appear to be mostly first time homebuyers, maybe previously priced out and now are excited they can finally jump in, so they are. We personally believe that this will be a short wave of able buyers that will dry up as quickly as it started. Just not that many able buyers out there anymore….but only time will tell.
On another note, any ideas on how to search out if there’s a Foreclosure or NOD on a particular property around there?
Drove by this VERY vacant home and wondering what the deal is? Address: 44381 Coronado (or it may be Ynez address as it faces Ynez but driveway is on Coronado)
If you have any access and insight let me know!

[cashflow]

I don’t think it will ever be a ghost town or homes condemned…I think that’s even too bearish for me! Temecula is a really nice community for families still and will continue to be, I think the other areas of Riverside county will be hurt big time as Temecula goes down, more will be able to afford to live there…no incentive to live in the middle of nowhere in Hemet or Moreno Valley where people were pushed out to as they were priced out.

TG, Didn’t you post just a few days ago that you couldn’t believe the pace of the NOD’s coming in over the past days and week? How can you state that you think it would be bottoming out?

I hate to admit it but we’ve been actively looking, only in that our lease is almost up and we thought, well what the hell if we can lowball a screaming deal outta a bank, than we’ll do it. The spring bounce though has kinda put some breaks on our plan. All the homes in the high 200-low 300’s in Temecula have so many people touring, it’s like it’s boomtown again (at least from our observations). I’ve seen some other homes that were priced at lower per sq/ft than those posted.
What about this one at 100/sqft.?
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1609827
It’s in Redhawk which is nice, but I guess it backs to a street, so not ideal location. This generated lots of interest.
From our observations the buyers that are out there in the lower price range jumping on these properties appear to be mostly first time homebuyers, maybe previously priced out and now are excited they can finally jump in, so they are. We personally believe that this will be a short wave of able buyers that will dry up as quickly as it started. Just not that many able buyers out there anymore….but only time will tell.
On another note, any ideas on how to search out if there’s a Foreclosure or NOD on a particular property around there?
Drove by this VERY vacant home and wondering what the deal is? Address: 44381 Coronado (or it may be Ynez address as it faces Ynez but driveway is on Coronado)
If you have any access and insight let me know!

[Author]

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