Addicted

[docteur]

Powayseller – I have been away for a while, enjoying my summer and now I come to find that you have been trashing me in my absense. I had no idea you had such contempt for me.

OK, I am going to respond and this will be my last post (and believe me, I will keep my word, I will not post again but I will continue to read this forum). And you can “take me seriously” because when I make a promise, I keep it.

First off, I don’t need any “education” from the likes of you PS. You are offering opinions and predictions, not education. In my 40 years in real estate, I have managed to weather several real estate cycles (this is simply another one and no, it is not different this time but I believe the way it shakes out will not follow your “sky is falling” scenario…it never does). I have ended up after 40 years in this business in the top .01% of wealth in this country, all earned from real estate. So please give me a little credit for knowing my field of endeavor.

I appreciate your posts when they provide verifiable data. Those that don’t and are filled with prognostications, opinions, or worse personal attacks and the like, I simply do my best to ignore them. You love to create controversy (albeit false) and think by stirring things up with your personal jabs, you are “educating” people. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Have you ever considered that I might find you in “thick denial?” However, I have never attacked you personally but you go too far with this thread (and a few other recent ones) and it’s time for me to tell you the truth.

You offend me with your ourbursts, splattered across this forum like those of a selfish little child who is seeking attention but being ignored by her parents. You think the louder you scream the more attention you will get and when that doesn’t work, you pull out the name calling.

You are highly intelligent but use your God given gifts to spread fear among those who trust you. Your propaganda is nothing more than veiled attempts to bolster your recent decision to sell your home and your investments based on your fear of the future. You are pretty transparent and it is clear to me that fear is what motivates you, not rational thinking and thoughtful analysis. You are a scared little child and puff up whenever anyone questions your judgement or opinions.

Your arrogance absolutely astounds me. You make sweeping predictions and then lash out at those who disagree with you, instead of looking at what you might learn from their experience.

Shame on you for attacking me (and others) just because my perception of this market is different than yours. (Even though, in spite of what you say, I continue to make millions in real estate profits, without heeding your advice and learned counsel). Had I followed the advice of fear mongers like you over the years, I would probably be broke and renting an apartment someplace where I don’t want to live.

I think you are the one in “thick denial” and deep down wish you had never sold your house, the one you designed and labored over yourself. You have been trying for months to convince those of us who know better that you made a wise decision.

I call BS. You are trying to convince everyone else (and yourself) how “smart” and ahead of the curve you were. Such grandstanding I expect to see in a six year old, but not an adult. Time will tell if financially you were smart but emotionally, just by where you are coming from, I’d say the sell decision was an absolute disaster.

Maybe no one takes you seriously because you have been spewing the same old tired dribble for months on end. Beating a dead horse doesn’t make it any more dead. It just makes the offender look like a huge horse’s ass.

And your absolute certainty about the future in your outlandish predictions! Please, stop overcompensating to cover your fear of what lies ahead and just accept that you are afraid. These are scary times. Everyone on this forum is apprehensive. But we need to acknowledge our fears and then deal with them head on. Not act as if we know it all. That way we can move through these tough times with confidence and start making choices that benefit us instead of choices that create doubt.

I have to ask you, if you are so damned smart, how come you aren’t incredibly wealthy? How come you command no respect beyond those in this forum who follow you like lemmings over a cliff? Facts are always subject to interpretation and how we use those facts determines how we end up in this life. We shape our own destiny and so far I’d say I’m doing just fine for an old dog that is in “thick denial.” Thanks for trying to save me from myself but I am addicted to success. Oh, poor me. I am so stupid and can’t see my ultimate demise and financial ruin like the great seer PS.

Get real. Give it up. There is no hope folks. Housing prices in my neighborhood will not fall by 50%. I absolutely guarantee that. And my certainty is based on 40 years in this business, through some pretty nasty cycles, not on some misinterpreted data and a lame prayer that I can steal a coastal home for less than it costs to build. One NOD and a few sales at 100% gains instead of 150% don’t mean that I am going to lose big just because you say so. Do you know any one personally that has lost money in this market yet? I sure as hell don’t.

PS, Why are you so afraid of the future? Why do you continue to leave this forum and then come back again? Cry wolf enough times and nobody believes you; your credibility disappears and you sound like a spoiled brat. You are like someone who takes one too many curtain calls. Either leave and stay gone or cut the BS and just deal with it.

Shakespeare said it best when he penned this line in Hamlet “The lady doth protest too much methinks.” In your case, way too much.

Sheesh, get a life, learn some manners and respect those who may have something useful to offer you. No one on this forum, not even you, who thinks she is responsible for our “education” and the savior of us poor folks in denial about the approaching real estate storm upon us, has any corner on the market for information nor a second sight into the future. Botton line: Nobody knows what is going to happen. NOBODY. Not even the great prognosticator, Powayseller. And if you think you know, you are clearly delusional.

The purpose of being on this forum is to share our experience and then make our own choices and decisions based on our individual analysis, as thinking adults. If I am wrong, well then I will take responsibility for my choices. I don’t need you to tell me how stupid I am.

Right now, I actually see huge opportunity looming on the horizon and intend to capitalize on that and a lot of what I see is based on the insightful posts of a lot of folks who happen to have a different perspective than yours. And thank God for them!

This forum is valuable to each person who participates, regardless of how much he/she participates. Some of the greatest pieces of information I have found on this forum are from those who rarely post but when they do, they have lots to say and their words have power. They don’t scream at me. They tell me with quiet confidence what they think and I listen very carefully. Their words have integrity.

Park your ego at the door and allow those of us who have been successful in the business of real estate (or any other business for that matter) to teach you something useful so you too can create real wealth and security for your family and stop letting fear run your life.

You see, the beauty of my position is this: Even if real estate falls 50%, I don’t give a rat’s ass because I am not attached to be being right. I’ve got nothing on being wrong. I’m where I want to be, debt free and loving life with millions in cash reserves to back me up. If real estate tanks, I’ll just buy it up (like I did in the last recession). Either way, I win. Right or wrong.

Neither you nor anyone else will ever convince me, based on my years of experience in real estate, that I am going to be in trouble. You see, I trust myself. I have no fear for the future because I know whatever it holds; I will deal with it effectively. That’s based on experience, not data or opinions or because someone said so.

I can make money in any kind of market, regardless of what you say because I have the experience, the capital, and the strength of my convictions, based on my knowledge of markets, and the belief in my abilities to be successful. And, up until now I have been willing to share my knowledge with anyone who cares to listen on this forum.

I believe your hostility towards me comes from envy. I’m where you would love to be. Living in my dream home, debt free, flush with cash and loving life. You stated in one post that had you been in a position to pay off your home and keep it, you would have, revealing to me that because you weren’t able to pay it off, that you had to fabricate lots of rationalizations of why you sold. And then you built an entire career on trying to convince the participants on this forum that you made the right decision.

You are so attached to being right, you spend most of your time looking for evidence (and then positing it) to support what you did. It’s almost comical how many times you can say the same thing with different data. OK already, we got your position on what you think is going to happen and how right you think you were in your actions. I mean, who are you trying to convince, me or yourself?

You even went so far as to ask if anyone needed a good analyst because you are so learned and know so much about these markets and exactly what is going to happen next. Wow, that really took the cake. Well, taking credit for making this forum what it is was a close second. Wake up! Who in the hell do you think you are?

Get clear on this: My life is not about being right or saving people through my superior intellect or my ability to post reams of facts and “educate” people. My life is about winning the game and creating my life the way I want it to be and more importantly, setting a good example for others to follow so that they can also create their life to be miraculous.

Be. Do. Have. Success leaves clues, in all areas of life. All you have to do is copy those who came before you, keep your integrity and I guarantee, you will produce the same results as that person who provides an example for you. It’s really pretty simple. Cut the chatter and get to work. Don’t tell me what you know, show me by your actions. As they say in my neighborhood “Make a bet on the bullshit.” Because PS, that’s all it is anyway. Nobody knows.

You are just another person trying, like all of us, to figure out which way the stream of life is going to flow next. You have no special powers nor do you have any more insight than anyone else on this forum. Learn a little humility and you will be amazed at how quickly your life improves and the fear disappears. You are no better, nor no worse, than anyone else who posts on this forum.

Lastly, you owe some folks on this forum, who come here in good faith to share information, just as valuable as anything you might have, a huge, public apology. Be bigger than your considerations about it and just admit that you got out of line. Especially with Mr. Gin. I was appalled that you had the audacity to call him a liar. He is a respected man in his field, regardless of whether you agree with him or not. That is a lot more than I can say for your current station in life.

I will forgive you in advance for offending me because I will not respond to anything you or anyone else posts on this forum from this point forward. So, be clear, I forgive you for what you have said and for what you will probably say down the road.

I wish all of you who post on this forum the best and hope that you live honest, purpose filled lifes. I hold no animosity towards any of you. I only want you to have the best of success in your life, to achieve your dreams and most importantly to enjoy the journey and help others to do the same.

Remember, no one has a corner on the future. And as I have stated before: “Communication is the appreciation of differences.” Welcome those whose perceptions are different than yours. They may have something of tremendous value to give to you. And thanks to all of you for communicating with me over these last several months and for your comments in the future.

What you have to offer (assuming you offend no one purposely) is of value, not matter how insignificant you may think it to be. Speak up, post often and with confidence, let no one person make this their personal soapbox and be sure to stop personal attacks on anyone as soon as you see them.

Do not confuse quality of posts with quantity of posts. Speak up when your moral compass starts spinning.

By being here and participating in this forum, you acknowledge Rich Toscano. Remember that each time you post. After all, he was the one who started this wonderful discussion board and continues to carry it forward without want of financial reward. Truly he is someone who wishes good on all of us.

Thanks again Rich for what you have created. I am proud to be one of your early premium members and will continue to come here to get different perspectives on the state of real estate in San Diego. I know I can always trust you to be honest, straightforward and clear in your communications.

Take care all. Good Bye.

[PerryChase]

docteur, you make some good points. And yes, powayseller can be overbearing.

However, I have to support powayseller’s right to express her opinions. Her sometimes controversial and over-the-top posts get the dialogue going.

If in our society, we have room for Evangelical Christians who think they need to save everyone in their paths, then we have room for a real-estate bear evangelist.

For God’s sake, we have too many bull evangelists already.

We’ve heard so much from the bulls in the last few years on how we’d better get into the market now that it’s nice to hear an opposing view. We are here on the Internet and there are millions more sites on investing and flipping properties for people who wants a more positive take on real estate investing.

In my view, one informercial on TV on no-money-down real estate investing do much more harm to the public than powayseller’s posts since the beginning.

Powerseller does not need to apologize. She’s got strong views and that’s fine by me.

My personal approach is that if anyone wants to invest in real-estate now, all I can do is wish them success. Or if anyone wants to get married to the wrong partner, it’s also not my job to dissuade them. I’ve learned that people don’t want advice. They just want cheer-leading and reinforcement for the decisions they’ve already made and empathy when things go awry.

I just do my own things independent of others. I have only a few friends I would be very frank and honest with.

In my book, powerseller is a little different. She’s an evangelist. She’s made it her mission to spread the word. I say spread away.

[rankandfile]

“Honestly, I cannot not think of one good reason why this is appropriate.
We are all here to learn.”

“ok, bun’s un-done, glasses are off, I’m drinking a Dewar’s but this thread is still lame!
:)”

[Chrispy]

I have to step in and be a grammarian here. It’s insightful, not inciteful… unless you want to incite a riot.

For those who have a hard time reading the font, if you have a PC, go to the View menu at the top, hit Font Size, and change to large or largest. Hopefully that will help.

[powayseller]

Docteur, I regret you are choosing to leave this forum. I respect you greatly. You are wise, and I really like you. My previous comments were about your denial of the current real estate market, not you personally.

You made millions in real estate and I did not. You know a lot about real estate, and you had some grace of God too. Had your project taken 17 years to complete instead of 15 years, you would have sold your large entitlement piece in 2006 or 2007, and would get much less money, perhaps you would have lost everything, as you did once or twice before.

I wrote before, I wish I had known this was a bubble back in 2000-2003, and I would have invested money in real estate. I saw the tech bubble for what it was, but not the real estate bubble. I thought CA housing prices were different, and I had always stayed away from real estate investing, preferring to “dollar cost average”. The folly of these approaches was the subject of another post, where I explain how I missed out by following Wall Street advice.

If I were rich, I would live rent free in a home I built myself. Why not? Ultimately, I want to live somewhere, at retirement, where there is no rent or mortgage to pay. I am squarely middle class. For this reason, I cannot afford to lose 35% – 50% equity in my house, and I took advantage to double my net worth. Now, I am very happy with my choice. I love the financial security, living in the center of Poway, and the renter life. I hope I can stay in this same rental until I am ready to buy again (when I will buy rental property and a home, God willing).

You are right that I cannot predict the future. However, every asset bubble in history has reverted to the mean. This one surely will too.

What puzzles me is that despite all your experience in real estate, your observation of at least 2 cycles in San Diego, you think that a regular builder subdivision in Carmel Valley, which is nothing special by architectectural or real estate standards, would be exempt from this housing drop. I asked a couple realtors about your neighborhood, and they both said it was “nothing special”. Perhaps the unique areas of La Jolla, coastal areas, older neighborhoods with unique homes and large trees, Rancho Santa Fe, but the builder subdivisions are a dime a dozen.

I am also puzzled that a man with 40 years in the the real estate world, would go off-forum just because of this observation. Obviously you and your home have a deep personal attachment.

Yes, you do know a lot more about real estate investing. I do not know a thing about entitlements, buying foreclosures, rental properties, any of that.

I don’t have any regrets about my comments regarding Alan Gin. He violated his role as a leader in the real estate industry. He definitely violated the public trust. I doubt you are friends with him, but wonder why you would defend him. He and Gregory Smith are clearly violating the public trust with their inaccurate statements and forecasts.

I don’t buy that you know more than I do about real estate cycles because you have millions and I don’t. Many a rich man lost it all in real estate, as you have before. Many a poor person made millions too. Hopefully time will kind to us both, and the real estate investments you make now, if any, will be fruitful.

The people on this forum are far from lemmings. Lemmings are the people out there who own homes now they can’t afford. The people here are forward thinking, independent thinkers. I think your comments are an insult to us all. Nobody follows me. They take advantage of me, if anything. I spend hours researching and writing here, and they read it all for free! If I stop writing, they don’t get their free contrarian real estate news any more.

Those of us writing about real estate dropping, are getting attacks from readers. I cannot respond to these attacks, but allow you the space to make them. This is a highly emotional time for owners of real estate, who are seeing their net worth and financial security erode, and feel jeopardized by the falling value of their home, mistaking their home’s net worth with that of their own.

I hope time will be kind to your home, your family, your investments.

[PD]

Docteur, I really wish that you had not chosen to end posting. Your rational comments have been a positive addition to Piggingtons. I have also been the target of insults, both overt and veiled. I have chosen to laugh at them.
With the addition of the off topic forum, I was hoping that we could continue some previous discussions which I found fascinating. 🙁

[PerryChase]

I just decided to remove the automatic email updates from Piggington. The email updates have been causing me to log on more that I should.

[lindismith]

Yeah, I kinda wondered how you get any work done, Perry! I am so busy these days I don’t have much time to post, just read…. Still addicted though. Removing the notification will definitely help you! 🙂

[novice1027]

You will be sorely missed Docteur. I have always enjoyed your insightfull posts. It has been a pleasant journey, I hope you enjoy the rest of yours!

[Author]

Posts