Addicted

[zeropointzero]

I’ve been addicted since stumbling on the site (via reference LA Times online article, I think) two weeks or so back.

I find it fascinating from my spot here in Alexandria, Virginia (close-in suburb of Washington, DC) – lots of similarities in terms of market psychology, overuse of ARMs and exotics, and condo inventory increasing in DC and close in suburbs. I think there is less sheer flipper and speculation activity than some of the frothiest markets – but we’re still due for some rude awakenings around here soon.

I’m addicted because the changing market is just going to be such a slow motion train wreck – anyone who really takes a close look can see it coming – and it’s going to really be interesting to see how it shakes out and how it ripples through the economy and society. I don’t relish the pain it’s going to cause some folks – but damn, it’s going to be so big that you can’t help but watch!

[kiki]

I am definitely addicted. my husband likes to get the “summary” version of my learnings but he hates that i expend to much time reading this blogs.

He warned not to start posting because that meant i was definitely doomed.

I wake up in the morning and while eating breakfast i read the blog.. no more morning news.. i get back from work and i am on the blog again.

i also feel that in this site i learn much more than real estate.

[hs]

I am addicted, too. My daughter asks me very often” Mommy, are you on the computer again?” Yes. I don’t post very much, but I check this forum constantly and read almost each post. I like it because it is an intellectual discussion board and most people are nice on this board.

I think powayseller contributes a lot to this forum. She initiated lots of good questions and posted lots of good information, and keeps this forum active and interesting.(Of course, she is not the only one.)

[sdduuuude]

I consider myself a “recovering Piggington addict.”

I don’t stop by as often. I’m just here to make sure people don’t take powayseller tooooooooooooooooo seriously.

[powayseller]

sduuude, what? I have been the main contributor of useful information on this board. I have weathered the useless silly wasteful comments of you, sdrealtor, and docteur, to the point that I have given up. It’s a waste of time to try educating people in denial.

Just as I was early in selling my house, cashing in my stocks, and renting, and the media is just now warning of foreclosures and exotic lending, you are behind in understanding how bad this will get. By Q1 07 we will be in the recession.

Take me seriously. This is my last warning. I am done wasting my time on fools like you!

One last thing. sdrealtor is a rude arrogant asshole. Goodbye docteur, thick in denial about his Carmel Valley home losing 50% of value. Goodbye sduuuuude and your silly comments.

Addicted to piggington? No longer. My greatest disappointment is the oldtimers who have been through past cycles, in thick denial, who need constant education, and the lack of intellectual capability on my questions on economy, investing. My posts on recession, investing get almost no responses. I need to find a group that is ready to move forward, and is not stuck in denial about the SD economy (which is in dire straits) and the future of housing, which will fall 50% in the biggest recession since the Great Depression.

[powayseller]

sduuude, what? I have been the main contributor of useful information on this board. I have weathered the useless silly wasteful comments of you, sdrealtor, and docteur, to the point that I have given up. It’s a waste of time to try educating people in denial.

Just as I was early in selling my house, cashing in my stocks, and renting, and the media is just now warning of foreclosures and exotic lending, you are behind in understanding how bad this will get. By Q1 07 we will be in the recession.

Take me seriously. This is my last warning. I am done wasting my time on fools like you!

One last thing. sdrealtor is a rude arrogant asshole. Goodbye docteur, thick in denial about his Carmel Valley home losing 50% of value. Goodbye sduuuuude and your silly comments.

Addicted to piggington? No longer. My greatest disappointment is the oldtimers who have been through past cycles, in thick denial, who need constant education, and the lack of intellectual capability on my questions on economy, investing. My posts on recession, investing get almost no responses. I need to find a group that is ready to move forward, and is not stuck in denial about the SD economy (which is in dire straits) and the future of housing, which will fall 50% in the biggest recession since the Great Depression.

I am moving forward, to preparing financially for the recession and the 50% housing loss. THAT is where the focus needs to be now. Wake up, guys! Housing will fall far and hard. That is beyond needing to be debated. Move on to preparing for the recession. It is real and coming hard.
So long,
Powayseller

[PerryChase]

Powayseller, please don’t go because it’s not going to be the same without you.

You’ve been very thorough and provided a lot of useful information. I agree with you about a 50% drop from the peak. I does not sound like a disaster to me for a $1 million house to drop to $500k. Personally, I don’t mind a recession because I do better in a conservative investing environment. I have a hard time following the herd to riches. I still remember the early 1990s with Bush the father. It was just fine by me.

People don’t like you raining on their parade and they think that you’re negative. I was talking on the phone to a friend and telling him about a possible 50% drop in RE. He promptly ended the conversation. I also learned to keep my mouth shut in social settings.

A web forum is kind of like a cocktail party. People want the conversation to be light and breezy. The positive is reinforced and the hard and difficult in talked only in a very circumspect manner. Actually, all of society is getting that way. We don’t want to deal with hard important issues. There’s no reward for being right on the way down.

It’s ok to say that investments will go up 50% but if you go the otherway, people will call you irresponsible and they will demand proof. Remember dot.com? Why do you think economists don’t like to predict a recession?

Powayseller, don’t take it personally if you don’t get responses to your posts. You do research but others may not have the time to research and read everything you do.

Please stick around. In 5 years, you can say “I told you so.” The bulls will hate you even more for being right, ha.ha.ha..

[FormerOwner]

powayseller,

Don’t leave us! I’ve gotten a lot out of the information and viewpoints you’ve shared. Don’t take the criticism too seriously. Maybe some people just have a “different” sense of humor. I don’t agree with everything I read on this blog either, but it’s up to each person to make up their own mind about how to run their own life.

“I prefer heaven for the climate, hell for the company”
-Mark Twain

This is a little off topic, but maybe this link describes some of the people on this blog. I think people that would be obsessed with the material on this blog would probably have at least some of these traits. This is not meant to come off as either conceited or cynical, just informative…

Characteristics of extreme intelligence

-Peace

[powayseller]

I tried to go back to edit my post,but couldn’t. Here’s the problem. We have people like docteur, an old timer who has seen bubbles come and go, and he is in thick denial. He goes around and checks with his neighbors on their financial situation to reassure himself that it can’t happen in his neighborhood. After all, they have all told him they can afford their homes. Wake up, docteur! You’ve got one NOD in your neighborhood already, and none of your neighbors are going to tell you if they are sleepless at night because they don’t know how to make their payments in 2008 when their I/O loan adjusts. You should have been a leader, a guide for us. Instead you bring around a bunch of BS about replacement cost. Land is 80% overvalued, labor and material costs are too high because of the building glut. In 2 years, you’ll be able to hire contractors and buy supplies for a fraction of today’s cost. I am disappointed that someone of your caliber is in such deep denial.

Thanks to Rich, bugs, privatebanker, lindismith, hs, rseiser, jepsd, Jim Klinge, Bob Casagrand (my MAIN teacher on real estate), 4plexowner, Chris Johnston, SD Realtor (Adam), John Hokkannen, asianautica, and any others I may have forgot. You were my true teachers on this board.

Perhaps someday this forum will mature.

For now, we need to stop debating whether housing will collapse 50%. Who cares if it is 48% or 52%? It is going down, crashing, far. It is beyond debate.

What we need to focus on now is what to do with our money, how to find financial security, how to survive the biggest recession of our lifetimes.

Until this forum moves in that direction, I just don’t have time to hang out here anymore. There are much more presssing needs to which I must attend.

goodnight, and good luck

[powayseller]

I tried to go back to edit my post,but couldn’t. Here’s the problem. We have people like docteur, an old timer who has seen bubbles come and go, and he is in thick denial. He goes around and checks with his neighbors on their financial situation to reassure himself that it can’t happen in his neighborhood. After all, they have all told him they can afford their homes. Wake up, docteur! You’ve got one NOD in your neighborhood already, and none of your neighbors are going to tell you if they are sleepless at night because they don’t know how to make their payments in 2008 when their I/O loan adjusts. You should have been a leader, a guide for us. Instead you bring around a bunch of BS about replacement cost. Land is 80% overvalued, labor and material costs are too high because of the building glut. In 2 years, you’ll be able to hire contractors and buy supplies for a fraction of today’s cost. I am disappointed that someone of your caliber is in such deep denial.

Thanks to Rich, bugs, privatebanker, lindismith, hs, rseiser, jepsd, Jim Klinge, Bob Casagrand (my MAIN teacher on real estate), 4plexowner, Chris Johnston, SD Realtor (Adam), John Hokkannen, asianautica, and any others I may have forgot. You were my true teachers on this board.

Perhaps someday this forum will mature.

For now, we need to stop debating whether housing will collapse 50%. Who cares if it is 48% or 52%? It is going down, crashing, far. It is beyond debate.

What we need to focus on now is what to do with our money, how to find financial security, how to survive the biggest recession of our lifetimes.

Until this forum moves in that direction, I just don’t have time to hang out here anymore. There are much more presssing needs to which I must attend.

goodnight, and good luck

[Daniel]

“Take me seriously. This is my last warning. I am done wasting my time on fools like you!

One last thing. sdrealtor is a rude arrogant asshole. Goodbye docteur, thick in denial about his Carmel Valley home losing 50% of value. Goodbye sduuuuude and your silly comments.”

Powayseller, that’s totally out of line. I hope you’ll see that and apologize to those in question.

Regarding future investments, I’m amazed that you need to discuss that. Since you KNOW that SD housing will drop hard, and that we’ll have a deep recession, you should find it very easy to park your money:

1. Take the short side on CME San Diego housing futures, that’s a first no brainer.
2. Short the stock market indexes (either SPY or the cubes, they’ll all drop like stones in the upcoming recession).
3. For more bang-for-the-buck, take the short side on S&P E-mini futures. This is the same as #2, but with a lot more leverage.
4. Buy some out-of-the-money puts on the builders, as they’ll certainly go under.
5. Since you also KNOW that long-term rates are low and will certainly go up, profit from that knowledge in the interest rate futures market.

Most of these trades will return in excess of 1,000% if your forecast of a housing market crash and deep recession proves correct. Since you seem very certain of your predictive powers, I really don’t see why you’re wasting your time asking us these questions, when the answers are so obvious.

[SD Realtor]

I to am addicted to this site as well.

Powayseller, I know you were addressing sdrealtor and not myself. I really hope you do not go as well. Your comments are very insiteful.

Forums like this are great for thoughtful expressions.

[Daniel]

Powayseller,

One more thing: I’m not being sarcastic with my investment recommendations. If I held such a deep bearish belief (as you apparently do) regarding the economy, I would certainly take those 5 positions. If you’re truly sure of your economic forecast, I say put your money where your mouth is. You can do most of those trades at online brokers such as E*Trade or Ameritrade, but you’ll need a specialized broker for the CME and interest rate futures.

[Anonymous]

Daniel, you are right on with your investment advice. Save your breath trying to convince poway seller. For whatever reason she is unable to see the forrest for the trees and is intent on overanalyzing this.

I share the same bearish beliefs as PS (at least regarding housing market, I don’t think the world is coming to an end), but I also put my money where my mouth is. My personnal favorite is your #4, out of the money puts on homebuilders. I think at least for the next 2 years this will be the best bang for the buck. I also love shorting the homebuilders and subprime lenders.

[PerryChase]

While I think that residential real estate is due for a 50% drop, I don’t feel that the end of the world is coming either.

It sounds to me like powayseller was very attached to her house. Therefore she needs comfirmation that she did just the right thing by selling it. If she knew 100% for sure she wouldn’t be here.

Hey, life is an adventure. Let’s take whatever happens with poise and humor.

I have to admit, I’m also “addicted” to Piggington for it’s learning and entertainment value. I don’t have cable TV so it’s PBS or the Internet.

[Author]

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