TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.
Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.
Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.
