One general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?
Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……
