Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.
