Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.
If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.
In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.
Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.
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As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.
Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median
92130
2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670
