I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.
