I definitely would encourage those interested in finding out more about Peal Oil to read The Oil Drum as has been suggested below. There are some very real facts and tons of data including lots of data on actual decline curves related to the production of most of the major oil fields around the world. With one or two exceptions (china’s production being one), most of the major oil producing countries are in actual decline, meaning they cannot (with or without the drilling of new wells) increase their production rates, including Saudi Arabia.
And while supply is the central tenet in Peak Oil, there is another and IMO a more critical issue at play and that is Demand. And when combined they create an issue which could force us as a Nation to confront Peak Oil in a real sense earlier than if Demand weren’t increasing so rapidly.
The issue for the US is not just the price we pay for the barrel and eventually at the pump (which has not kept up the increase in the price per barrel). It is also the fact that we import so much of our oil (66% in 2006 and much from Non-OPEC countries).
Much of our oil imports come from Canada and Mexico and Mexico is already on a pretty steep decline (14%) on the Cantarell Field (their largest by far at 60% of their total production) we may soon be confronted with what some are calling the “Export Land Model” which is a model to show how internal consumption/demand which is rising and supply which is falling will force most of the major exporters to curtail and eventually cease exporting oil in order to meet internal demand far before the full effect of Peak Oil will come home to roost.
I have seen some analysis which estimates that Mexico may be forced to cease exporting oil within 5-7 years due to the decline at Cantarell.
We as a nation should be looking into every possible avenue to produce energy from alternative sources while focusing on reducing our demand. Let’s hope we did not allow political considerations to have robbed us of our lead time to work this problem before we face the full effects of it. I suspect we may have already done so.
